210 Urban Rd · Fawn Lake Forest, PA 18428

$228,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,995 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1992 2.27 ac lot $114/sqft · 29% below area Est $433k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked among the trees of Pike County, this two-story home on Urban Road offers privacy, space, and potential for transformation. The exterior features light siding, a front porch, and a ramp entry, set against a wooded backdrop that gives the property a peaceful, secluded feel. Inside, the layout includes multiple bedrooms and baths, two kitchens, providing flexibility for renovation or multi-use living. The structure itself holds promise with hardwood floors, large windows, and generous ceiling height throughout. The main kitchen opens to a bright living area with sliding doors to the deck, while the lower level includes a workshop and garage space ideal for tools, storage, or creative pr

Key facts

• Large windows
• Multiple kitchens
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• RAMP ENTRY
• MULTIPLE KITCHENS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE WINDOWS
• GENEROUS CEILING HEIGHT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Wooded lot; Paved road access; Publicly maintained road; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; No central air
• Interior features: In-law floorplan; Finished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Has heating (Baseboard, Electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $228k).
• Recommended offer: $221k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.8% in Fawn Lake Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,395 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $228k implies a 1167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,160 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.29%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $432,563
• List price: $228,000
• Delta: -47.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
180 Urban Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,855 (-7%)	9mo	$325,000	$175	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $135,405
• Equity at exit: $205,400

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.11×
• Total profit: $390,132
• Equity at exit: $442,954

Cash invested: $63,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,274/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,085

Max offer price $228,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,000
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $228,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $228,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $240,000 Active 954-char remark
16. 1990-05-29
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,274 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,274 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,772
• − Property taxes: −$4,274
• − Insurance: −$1,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,214
• − Management: −$2,214
• − Depreciation: −$6,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,572
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$377
• After-tax cash flow: $2,478/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Fawn Lake Forest

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1395
• US rank: #17626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1166.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $228,000 PWMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $240,000 PWMLS
• 1990-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,274 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.