5138 Lode Ave · Affton, MO 63123

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 476 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 194 Days on market

Built 1918 4,791 sqft lot $116/sqft · 54% below area ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ranch home is Bayless school district with new roof, new framing, new doors, new windows, new water service, and set of Kitchen Cabinets included. Owner is a licensed Missouri Broker.

Key facts

• New framing
• New doors
• New water service

Tags

• BAYLESS SCHOOL DISTRICT
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FRAMING
• NEW DOORS
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW WATER SERVICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.9% in Affton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#121 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bayless (suburban): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #206 of 324 in MO (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.50%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,807
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -54.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4956 Tiemann Ave	0.46mi	1/1.0 (-1)	546 (+15%)	4mo	$30,000	$55	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $22,601
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $60,394
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63123

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,147 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,210/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $522

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $55,000 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-04-13
    price $57,500 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Ranch home is Bayless school district with new roof, new framing, new doors, new windows, new water service, and set of Kitchen Cabinets included. Owner is a licensed Missouri Broker.

14. 2026-04-02
    price $59,900 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Ranch home is Bayless school district with new roof, new framing, new doors, new windows, new water service, and set of Kitchen Cabinets included. Owner is a licensed Missouri Broker.

15. 2026-03-09
    price $65,000 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Ranch home is Bayless school district with new roof, new framing, new doors, new windows, new water service, and set of Kitchen Cabinets included. Owner is a licensed Missouri Broker.

16. 2026-02-26
    price $68,500 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Ranch home is Bayless school district with new roof, new framing, new doors, new windows, new water service, and set of Kitchen Cabinets included. Owner is a licensed Missouri Broker.

17. 2026-02-23
    price $72,500 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Ranch home is Bayless school district with new roof, new framing, new doors, new windows, new water service, and set of Kitchen Cabinets included. Owner is a licensed Missouri Broker.

18. 2026-02-12
    price $75,000 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Ranch home is Bayless school district with new roof, new framing, new doors, new windows, new water service, and set of Kitchen Cabinets included. Owner is a licensed Missouri Broker.

19. 2026-01-18
    price $78,500 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Ranch home is Bayless school district with new roof, new framing, new doors, new windows, new water service, and set of Kitchen Cabinets included. Owner is a licensed Missouri Broker.

20. 2025-12-06
    listed $82,500 Active 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Ranch home is Bayless school district with new roof, new framing, new doors, new windows, new water service, and set of Kitchen Cabinets included. Owner is a licensed Missouri Broker.

21. 2002-09-19
    soldstatus
22. 1995-02-01
    soldstatus
23. 1994-09-19
    soldstatus
24. 1994-09-19
    soldstatus
25. 1994-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,210 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,210 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,210
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,101
• − Management: −$1,101
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $5,397
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,295
• After-tax cash flow: $4,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bayless
• NCES district ID: 2904500
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $49,378
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #6293
• State rank: #206 of 324 in MO

Livability — Affton

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #121
• US rank: #7312

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Affton, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 49,077
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 49,077
• Household income: $77,055
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 753.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: American 5% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.90%
• Current HPI: 220.258
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.01%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-30.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $57,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $59,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $65,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $68,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $72,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $78,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Listed $82,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,210 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.