7557 Oliver Park Dr · Burlington, NC 27377

$280,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,716 sqft · Townhouse public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2021 2,613 sqft lot Est $271k · at est. $150/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Like-New Townhome in Prime Mebane Location! Tasteful Interior Options Include LVP Flooring, Chrome Fixtures, Quartz Countertop, Open Railing Wrought Iron Balusters. Whirpool SS Appliances. Primary Bedroom on Main Level w/ Sizeable WIC+ Walk-In Shower. Spacious Additional Bedrooms. Semi-Private Patio. Attached Garage. Amenities Include Community Pool, Sidewalks, and Dog Park! Easy Access to Triad and RDU Area, Restaurants, Entertainment, Major Highways, Healthcare, and Airports.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Semi-private patio
• Community pool

Tags

• LIKE-NEW TOWNHOME
• WHIRPOOL SS APPLIANCES
• PRIMARY BEDROOM ON MAIN LEVEL
• SEMI-PRIVATE PATIO
• COMMUNITY POOL
• DOG PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-287 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#123 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, schools F, crime F.
• Guilford County Schools (urban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #99 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,843 units permitted in Guilford County in 2024 (2,397 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Guilford County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,417 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.39%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,128
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7501 Oliver Park Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,743 (+2%)	9mo	$275,000	$158	87
7632 Oliver Park Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,618 (-6%)	8mo	$255,000	$158	81
7513 Oliver Park Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,772 (+3%)	16mo	$273,000	$154	80
7691 Oliver Park Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,745 (+2%)	21mo	$276,000	$158	77
7509 Oliver Park Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,614 (-6%)	22mo	$272,500	$169	70
7344 Garett Park Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,472 (-14%)	3mo	$236,000	$160	68
7360 Garett Park Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,532 (-11%)	12mo	$247,500	$162	66
7320 Colleen Park Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,498 (-13%)	14mo	$215,000	$144	64
7452 Garett Park Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,536 (-10%)	20mo	$235,000	$153	61
7209 Olmstead Dr Unit C	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,532 (-11%)	12mo	$220,000	$144	57
7213 Olmstead Dr Unit A	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,520 (-11%)	10mo	$223,500	$147	57
7213 Olmstead Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,520 (-11%)	10mo	$223,500	$147	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.02% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-10,687
• Equity at exit: $95,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $28,941
• Equity at exit: $127,512

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27377

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,286/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,437

Max offer price $229,317

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1626 Daisy Park Dr Whitsett, NC	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,750	$1.23	23d	1	0.28mi
225 Brycewood Dr Burlington, NC	4.0	2.5	1929	$1,860	$0.96	23d	1	0.67mi
1950 Glenkirk Dr Burlington, NC	4.0	2.5	2076	$2,295	$1.11	20d	1	1.00mi
708 Hawthorn Ridge Dr Whitsett, NC	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,330	$1.06	14d	1	1.26mi
541 NC Highway 61 Whitsett, NC	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,839	$1.29	14d	10	1.43mi
1022 Poets Walk Rd Unit 1 Whitsett, NC	3.0	2.5	1706	$1,850	$1.08	21d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-01-07
   soldstatus $275,000
2. 2024-12-08
   status Pending
3. 2024-11-01
   listed $280,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,286 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,296 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$10/yr (+$1/mo · 0.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$2,286
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$8,408
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,018
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guilford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701920
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,315
• Composite: 35.78/100
• National rank: #4842
• State rank: #99 of 178 in NC

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #7396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, NC
• County: Guilford County · 487,190 people
• City population: 88,508
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,885
• Household income: $90,181
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 356.0

Population outlook (Guilford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 584,596 people
• By 2030: 616,851 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 678,451 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 734,788 · +25.7%
• By 2075: 862,985 · +47.6%
• By 2100: 948,704 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 34% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Italian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guilford

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.2% · R 38.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.02%
• Current HPI: 232.0638
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-08 Pending — TMLS
• 2024-11-01 Listed $280,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+71.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,286 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.