#1 Cliffside Dr · Morgan's Point Resort, TX 76513

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,001 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1979 5,227 sqft lot $220/sqft · 8% below area Est $240k · 8% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1979

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current lease expires 2026-04-27

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 space; Garage door opener; Multi-door access
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; High-speed internet available; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single-story residence; Resale property; Slab foundation
• Construction: Masonry construction; Blown-in insulation; Composition shingle roof; Built year source: assessor
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Back yard with chain link fence; City lot; City street frontage; Views of Belton Lake, river and woods

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Oven; Range hood; Refrigerator; Disposal; Icemaker / plumbed for icemaker; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Primary downstairs / bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Combination of hardwood and tile; No carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; One cooling unit
• Interior features: Accessible kitchen with no stairs; Ceiling fans; Carbon monoxide detector; Primary bedroom on main level; Living/dining room; Separate shower; Vanity; Walk-in closet(s); Stone and solid surface counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.5% in Morgan's Point Resort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 745 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,618 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,900
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -8.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Cliffside Dr	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,034 (+3%)	18mo	$199,900	$193	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-44,042
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-57,297
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76513

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 745
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,198/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,913

Max offer price $204,992

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 E Shawnee Ln Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1322	$1,650	$1.25	43d	1	0.47mi
8 E Shawnee Ln Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1322	$1,650	$1.25	23d	1	0.47mi
1 Rawhide Cir Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,425	$1.08	23d	1	0.87mi
9916 Orion Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,725	$1.18	43d	1	1.10mi
3 Buttercup Loop Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,650	$1.22	13d	1	1.17mi
4 Buttercup Loop Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,645	$1.37	13d	1	1.19mi
6 Bay Ct Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,795	$1.27	13d	1	1.20mi
18 S Sherwood Dr Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,645	$1.23	43d	1	1.23mi
11 Basswood Ct Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,700	$1.33	13d	1	1.27mi
42 Buttercup Loop Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,745	$1.40	43d	1	1.31mi
619 Starlight Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$3,600	$2.49	43d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $219,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,900 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-04-26
    listed $229,900 Active 470-char remark
18. 1983-11-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,198 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,024 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$827/yr (+$69/mo · 25.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,198
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$4,806
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,153
• After-tax cash flow: $141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809860
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,239
• Composite: 37.62/100
• National rank: #4378
• State rank: #285 of 826 in TX

Livability — Morgan's Point Resort

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morgan's Point Resort, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,928
• Household income: $80,661
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1198.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 183.6715
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $219,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $229,900 CTXMLS
• 1983-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,198 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.