512 Main St · Idalou, TX 79329

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1953 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Handyman Special with Bonus Extra Lot Next Door. This property is being sold AS IS to the investor that can see the huge opportunity available on this one! Solid construction overall, but pretty much needs a complete rehab. On a nice corner lot, with a large, bonus extra lot next door, if you wish to build another home in the future.

Key facts

• Bonus extra lot
• Corner lot
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• BONUS EXTRA LOT
• CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Paved road access
• Home design: Single family residence; Single-story; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco construction; Composition roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Built on a corner lot
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Storage (exterior)

Interior

• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features; No built-in appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $932 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#183 in TX, #4,739 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Idalou ISD (rural): math 62% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #74 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Idalou El (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 410 students, 41% FRL); Idalou Middle (math 59% / reading 46%, grade C+, #293 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 300 students, 32% FRL); Idalou H S (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A-, #60 of 1,632 statewide, top 4%, 278 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.77%
• DSCR: 4.95
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.14×
• Total profit: $52,177
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.71×
• Total profit: $122,296
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79329

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,169/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $932

Break-even live

Break-even rent $551

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Walnut St Idalou, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,595	$1.31	13d	1	0.31mi
1011 Walnut St Idalou, TX	3.0	2.0	1880	$1,895	$1.01	13d	1	0.38mi
7212 N County Road 3300 Unit A Idalou, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	13d	1	0.57mi
815 Hickory St Idalou, TX	4.0	3.0	1890	$1,775	$0.94	13d	1	0.69mi
923 W 6th St Idalou, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$1,775	$0.95	21d	1	0.95mi
923 W 6th St Idalou, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$1,825	$0.98	43d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $45,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $56,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $56,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $56,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $56,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,999 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,999 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,999 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 336-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $74,999 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,169 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,169 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$2,169
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $11,226
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,694
• After-tax cash flow: $8,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Idalou ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824120
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,003
• Composite: 50.42/100
• National rank: #1870
• State rank: #74 of 826 in TX

Livability — Idalou

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #4739

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Idalou, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,549

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.80%
• Current HPI: 304.0784
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $74,999 LARMLS
• 1985-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,169 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.