45 Fourth St · Winooski, VT 05446

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $87k · 32% over $519/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and affordable, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home in Colchester offers 964 square feet of comfortable living space. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with bright living areas and cozy bedrooms, perfect for easy, low-maintenance living. An enclosed porch adds valuable extra space and features a finished room—ideal for a home office, hobby area, or guest overflow. Whether you’re looking for your first home, downsizing, or seeking an investment opportunity, this property delivers great potential in a convenient Colchester location close to local amenities, Lake Champlain, and Burlington. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a move-in ready home with

Key facts

• Guest overflow
• Finished room
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• ENCLOSED PORCH
• FINISHED ROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• HOBBY AREA
• GUEST OVERFLOW
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.0% in Winooski — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#5 in VT, #831 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D.
• Zoned schools: Union Memorial School (231 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $115k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.96%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,856
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Third St	0.03mi	2/1.5	924 (0%)	8mo	$60,000	$65	90
70 Fifth St	0.05mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	13mo	$95,000	$103	87
21 Second St	0.06mi	2/2.0	960 (+4%)	5mo	$90,000	$94	87
78 South St	0.17mi	2/2.0	952 (+3%)	2mo	$124,500	$131	85
64 Seventh St	0.10mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	11mo	$80,000	$87	83
44 Second St	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	938 (+2%)	7mo	$111,000	$118	80
101 6th St	0.09mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	18mo	$85,000	$92	77
116 Seventh St	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+8%)	6mo	$75,000	$75	76
43 First St	0.12mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	19mo	$72,000	$78	74
58 Fifth St	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+14%)	2mo	$107,000	$101	73
69 East Ave	0.23mi	2/1.0	972 (+5%)	17mo	$68,500	$70	63
62 First St	0.12mi	2/1.0	840 (-9%)	15mo	$85,000	$101	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $12,373
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $51,571
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05446

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,194 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $972/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$519
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,584

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $519 · $6,228/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-22
   listed $115,000 Active
3. 2023-05-02
   soldstatus $46,700
4. 2010-08-24
   soldstatus $45,500
5. 2009-04-06
   soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $972 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,579 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$606/yr (+$51/mo · 62.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$972
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,106
• − Management: −$2,106
• − HOA: −$6,228
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $4,549
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,092
• After-tax cash flow: $4,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Winooski

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #831

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chittenden County · 110,603 people
• City population: 8,293
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• Population (ZIP): 16,452
• Household income: $97,475
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 259.0

Population outlook (Chittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,769 people
• By 2030: 174,716 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 180,337 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 183,768 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 194,646 · +14.0%
• By 2100: 194,933 · +14.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chittenden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 75.4% · R 21.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+54.5 2016: D+46.8 2012: D+41.9 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.02%
• Current HPI: 406.7675
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+117.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $115,000 PrimeMLS
• 2023-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $46,700 Public Records
• 2010-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records
• 2009-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $972 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.