3706 Petry Dr · Kirby, TX 78219

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,686 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1971 8,973 sqft lot $116/sqft · 5% below area Est $206k · 5% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in Kirby, TX, just minutes from downtown San Antonio. This well-maintained property features vaulted ceilings that create an open, airy feel, updated bathrooms, and a converted garage offering flexible living space. Enjoy a spacious backyard-perfect for entertaining, pets, or future outdoor projects. Conveniently situated near Ft. Sam Houston and BAMC, with easy access to I-10, Loop 410, and I-35. A great opportunity for comfortable living with a central location.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Central location
• Converted garage

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• CONVERTED GARAGE
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• CENTRAL LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-285 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (25.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#761 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,620 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.27%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,801
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -5.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3703 Autumn Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+0%)	7mo	$219,900	$130	89
5102 Crown Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,769 (+5%)	4mo	$225,000	$127	75
3627 Kirby Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,684 (-0%)	20mo	$239,000	$142	70
5210 Tom Stafford Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,766 (+5%)	2mo	$210,000	$119	64
5002 Frank Borman	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,634 (-3%)	12mo	$135,000	$83	64
4814 Dick Gordon	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,573 (-7%)	5mo	$149,900	$95	63
5251 Gordon Cooper	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-9%)	10mo	$239,000	$155	51
5418 Eclipse St	0.25mi	3/3.0	1,447 (-14%)	13mo	$225,000	$155	50
5419 Eclipse St	0.25mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,871 (+11%)	14mo	$219,990	$118	49
4207 Misty Spgs	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,633 (-3%)	14mo	$210,000	$129	41
5229 Swann	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,479 (-12%)	7mo	$194,555	$132	41
4822 NE Cinderella	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-14%)	15mo	$205,000	$142	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.73% appreciation · 7.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $11,108
• Equity at exit: $84,722

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $84,154
• Equity at exit: $128,312

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78219

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$511 /mo · $6,131/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,044

Max offer price $144,620

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3707 Autumn Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,500	$1.12	44d	1	0.09mi
5019 Starfire St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,100	$1.37	44d	1	0.12mi
5003 Starfire St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,650	$1.29	4d	1	0.15mi
5212 Vinecrest Cir San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1421	$2,100	$1.48	44d	1	0.18mi
5039 Ed White St Unit 78219 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1145	$1,600	$1.40	4d	1	0.28mi
5015 David Scott Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,750	$1.29	24d	1	0.28mi
3407 Alan Shepard Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	24d	1	0.43mi
4334 Hickory Hill Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.5	1129	$1,550	$1.37	11d	1	0.68mi
2707 Alan Shepard Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,900	$1.48	44d	1	0.70mi
4203 Misty Springs Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1525	$1,495	$0.98	24d	1	0.75mi
5719 Country Sun Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,400	$0.94	24d	1	0.81mi
2540 Corian Glen Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,300	$1.10	22d	1	0.86mi
5727 Jones Fall Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,495	$0.97	24d	1	0.86mi
4439 Misty Springs Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1591	$1,495	$0.94	13d	1	0.87mi
2644 Ackerman Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	853	$1,230	$1.44	44d	1	0.90mi
4819 Lunar San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,289	$1.12	4d	1	0.99mi
4082 Sunrise Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,355	$1.20	4d	1	1.01mi
4102 Dakota Sun San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1202	$1,350	$1.12	44d	1	1.06mi
4123 Frontier Sun San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1086	$1,350	$1.24	44d	1	1.09mi
3669 Candlehead Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1294	$1,700	$1.31	44d	1	1.10mi
4162 Frontier Sun San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1246	$1,400	$1.12	44d	1	1.13mi
4078 Enchanted Sun San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	24d	1	1.13mi
5846 Sun Farm San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,425	$1.22	24d	1	1.15mi
3643 Cameron Spgs San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.5	1501	$1,180	$0.79	3d	1	1.17mi
5840 Glacier Sun Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,749	$1.30	2d	1	1.19mi
5414 Stoneshire San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	11d	1	1.22mi
4614 Jeffs Farm San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2243	$1,925	$0.86	44d	1	1.22mi
5146 Fountain Hl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$1,550	$0.84	24d	1	1.23mi
4047 Indian Sunrise San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1089	$1,150	$1.06	44d	1	1.26mi
4919 Celtic Cor San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2110	$1,950	$0.92	24d	1	1.26mi
4618 Todds Farm San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1752	$1,750	$1.00	11d	1	1.27mi
4411 Mystic Sunrise Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,000	$1.79	24d	1	1.28mi
5910 Summer Fest Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1812	$2,150	$1.19	44d	1	1.29mi
4922 Celtic Cor San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,550	$0.96	24d	1	1.30mi
6206 Eddie Way Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	24d	1	1.31mi
6206 Eddie Way Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	3d	1	1.31mi
6210 Eddie Way Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	44d	1	1.32mi
6210 Eddie Way Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	3d	1	1.32mi
6214 Eddie Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,600	$1.31	20d	1	1.32mi
6214 Eddie Way Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,600	$1.31	22d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-04-01
    price $195,000 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in Kirby, TX, just minutes from downtown San Antonio. This well-maintained property features vaulted ceilings that create an open, airy feel, updated bathrooms, and a converted garage offering flexible living space. Enjoy a spacious backyard-perfect for entertaining, pets, or future outdoor projects. Conveniently situated near Ft. Sam Houston and BAMC, with easy access to I-10, Loop 410, and I-35. A great opportunity for comfortable living with a central location.

15. 2026-01-21
    listed $199,000 New 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in Kirby, TX, just minutes from downtown San Antonio. This well-maintained property features vaulted ceilings that create an open, airy feel, updated bathrooms, and a converted garage offering flexible living space. Enjoy a spacious backyard-perfect for entertaining, pets, or future outdoor projects. Conveniently situated near Ft. Sam Houston and BAMC, with easy access to I-10, Loop 410, and I-35. A great opportunity for comfortable living with a central location.

16. 2026-01-09
    historical
17. 2025-11-04
    price $199,000
18. 2025-09-09
    price $210,000
19. 2025-07-28
    listed $220,000 New
20. 2025-02-15
    historical
21. 2024-08-15
    listed $200,000 New
22. 2024-06-30
    historical
23. 2024-05-07
    status Back on Market
24. 2024-04-29
    historical Active Option
25. 2024-04-22
    status Back on Market
26. 2024-03-23
    historical Active Option
27. 2024-01-01
    listed $210,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,131 · $511/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,131 · $511/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$6,131
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$6,737
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,617
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Judson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824990
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,542
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7689
• State rank: #660 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kirby

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #761
• US rank: #13943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kirby, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,924
• Household income: $52,094
• Rent vs Own: 46.1% rent · 53.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 852.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% Two or more races 27% Black 26% White 16% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.73%
• Current HPI: 328.5107
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.72%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $195,000 LERA
• 2026-01-21 Listed $199,000 LERA
• 2026-01-09 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $199,000 LERA
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $210,000 LERA
• 2025-07-28 Listed $220,000 LERA
• 2025-02-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-08-15 Listed $200,000 LERA
• 2024-06-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-05-07 Relisted — LERA
• 2024-04-29 Contingent — LERA
• 2024-04-22 Relisted — LERA
• 2024-03-23 Contingent — LERA
• 2024-01-01 Listed $210,000 LERA

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,131 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.