The Shetland III Plan · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$299,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,387 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

$50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Shetland II plan features two stories with first-floor owner's suite. The extended entryway leads to the sizable kitchen and breakfast area and opens to the large family room at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom is located at the back of the home and includes an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet. The second story accommodates bedroom two and three with an optional fourth bedroom and ensuite bath, as well as a large loft.

Key facts

• Sizable kitchen
• Large family room
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR OWNER'S SUITE
• SIZABLE KITCHEN
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPTIONAL FOURTH BEDROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $365,424.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-836 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 312 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,217 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.80%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,424
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -17.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3804 Arrowchop	0.04mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,156 (-10%)	8mo	$368,048	$171	68
3833 Arrowchop Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,156 (-10%)	7mo	$376,350	$175	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-112,373
• Equity at exit: $54,486

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-166,124
• Equity at exit: $31,595

Cash invested: $102,319 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,916
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$457 /mo · $5,481/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-836

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,260

Max offer price $244,505

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,356
• Closing costs: $10,963
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    listed $299,990 Active 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    The Shetland II plan features two stories with first-floor owner's suite. The extended entryway leads to the sizable kitchen and breakfast area and opens to the large family room at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom is located at the back of the home and includes an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet. The second story accommodates bedroom two and three with an optional fourth bedroom and ensuite bath, as well as a large loft.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,469
• − Property taxes: −$5,481
• − Insurance: −$1,827
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$10,631
• Taxable loss: −$16,810
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,034
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,265
• Population (ZIP): 10,265

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $299,990 Zillow