1866 Kyrle Ter · The Villages, FL 32162

$450,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,222 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2005 8,471 sqft lot Est $529k · 15% under $204/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Uniquely situated and nestled within a large pie-shaped lot in the highly coveted village of POINCIANA, this FABULOUS 3/2 +DEN CUSTOM BLOCK and STUCCO Gardenia model boasting a large SCREENED LANAI surrounded by MATURE PRIVACY landscaping and an EXPANSIVE OVERSIZED 727sf TWO CAR + GOLF CART garage is a MUST SEE! BOND PAID! ROOF 2026! Lush, MATURE landscaping with CURBED, STONED beds, DECORATIVELY PAINTED drive and walkway, ARCHED entry vestibule, and a FROSTED-GLASS door with sidelight and transom window welcome you into a well-lit and GENEROUS foyer. UPGRADES include TWO SOLAR TUBES, double-pane low-e (

Key facts

• Two solar tubes
• Screened lanai
• Large pie-shaped lot

Tags

• LARGE PIE-SHAPED LOT
• SCREENED LANAI
• MATURE PRIVACY LANDSCAPING
• TWO SOLAR TUBES
• BOSE SURROUND SOUND SYSTEM
• STAGGERED WOOD CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Homestead eligible; Property type: Residential - Single Family Residence; Zoning: Residential
• Financial info: Association fee: $204/month (total monthly fees); Total annual association fees: $2,448; Other annual assessment: $767; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community pool; Recreation facilities; Tennis courts; Pickleball courts; Shuffleboard court; Playground; Dog park; Sidewalks; Trails; Golf course access; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Vehicle restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage (2 spaces) with garage door opener; 29 x 26 garage dimensions; Driveway; Golf cart garage/parking; Ground-level parking
• Utilities: Private water source; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as model: GARDENIA
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Landscaped yard; Level lot; Near golf course; Paved road access; Trees/landscaped vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $421k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $365k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,645/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $364,537 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $528,836
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1675 Abernethy Pl	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,122 (-4%)	5mo	$462,500	$218	79
1970 Hagood Loop	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,998 (-10%)	4mo	$400,000	$200	77
1998 Jonquil Pl	0.46mi	3/2.0	2,178 (-2%)	2mo	$410,000	$188	74
2076 Dove Hollow Run	0.39mi	3/3.0	2,191 (-1%)	6mo	$979,900	$447	70
1656 Hollow Branch Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,927 (-13%)	1mo	$435,000	$226	66
1595 Golden Ridge Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,920 (-14%)	2mo	$675,000	$352	62
2039 Markridge Loop	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,030 (-9%)	6mo	$789,900	$389	57
1468 Golden Ridge Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,978 (-11%)	7mo	$455,000	$230	54
2005 Markridge Loop	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,926 (-13%)	6mo	$713,350	$370	54
1694 Nelson Ter	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,021 (-9%)	3mo	$520,000	$257	51
2184 Markridge Loop	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,939 (-13%)	6mo	$450,000	$232	45
1601 Arial Pl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,999 (-10%)	7mo	$475,000	$238	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-79,950
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-68,778
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,645 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,511/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$766
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,853

Max offer price $421,016

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $-37	+0% $-164	+5% $-291	+10% $-419
Rent	-10% $-452	-5% $-308	+0% $-164	+5% $-20	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $-50	base $-164	+0.5pp $-281	+1.0pp $-399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1623 Abernethy Pl The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$4,800	$3.07	22d	1	0.28mi
2272 Vassar Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,500	$1.77	22d	1	1.09mi
2280 Biscayne Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	22d	1	1.13mi
2192 Quinn Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$5,600	$3.48	22d	1	1.23mi
2393 Highbanks Ct The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,800	$1.84	22d	1	1.27mi
2290 Nackman Pl The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$3,800	$2.66	22d	1	1.33mi
2393 Carriage Hill Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1631	$4,300	$2.64	22d	1	1.36mi
7730 Wilds Loop Wildwood, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,384	$2.20	22d	28	1.42mi
5309 County Road 114D Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	2848	$2,800	$0.98	22d	1	1.43mi
5192 Hartwood Loop Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,590	$1.65	22d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $450,000 Pending 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $450,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $450,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $450,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $450,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-05-20
   price $450,000
7. 2026-04-28
   price $475,000
8. 2026-03-23
   listed $500,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,511 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,735 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$224/yr (+$19/mo · 6.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$3,511
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,500
• − Management: −$3,500
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$9,761
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,343
• After-tax cash flow: $374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $450,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $475,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $500,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,511 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.