120 Grassy Key Ln #38 · Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Condo public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1982 $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

You Own the Land! Strong Investment Opportunity or Discover a peaceful and secure retirement in this beautiful and peaceful 55+ community in the West Wind Estates, where your homeownership is truly complete. This Fully Updated Unit is a must see! Enjoy the awesome country club style living with clubhouse, community pool, community room, Pickleball, Shuttle board, Tennis courts and all for a low fee of $375 per quarter. If you enjoy boating this community is for you minutes away from a public access boat ramp off Marco Island with a quick boat ride out to the Gulf (this is invaluable). West Wind Estates is also minutes from Marco Island, Tin City, Celebration Park, Downtown Naples, Naples Be

Key facts

• Community pool
• 55 community
• Prime location

Tags

• 55 COMMUNITY
• COUNTRY CLUB STYLE LIVING
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PUBLIC ACCESS BOAT RAMP
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is one of 267 units in the community; single unit in the building
• Financial info: No investor-specific income or expense details provided
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (mobile/manufactured community, non-gated); Quarterly master HOA fee of $375; Total annual recurring fees approximately $1,500; One-time fees approximately $200; Professional management; HOA maintenance includes recreation facilities; Community amenities: clubhouse, community pool, community room, boat storage, extra storage, internet access, tennis court, pickleball, and shuffleboard

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-space carport; Paved driveway
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available; Electric service for heating and cooling
• Home design: Manufactured residential home; Florida-style description; Built in 1982; Rear exposure faces north; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Metal roof; Manufactured construction; Built in 1982
• Exterior features: Patio; Exterior storage; Single-hung windows; Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Landscaped view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator/freezer with icemaker
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (split bedroom layout)
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with combined tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Cable prewired; high-speed internet available; Family room and great room; Unfurnished; Split bedroom floor plan
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 9167% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $139k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.16%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $12,189
• Equity at exit: $30,373

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $54,301
• Equity at exit: $29,258

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 900
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,343 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,479/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,850

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    listed $1,500
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $139,000 Active
17. 2026-02-28
    historical
18. 2025-09-26
    listed $155,000 Active
19. 2025-05-05
    historical
20. 2024-06-20
    listed $189,000 Active
21. 1996-10-21
    soldstatus $40,000
22. 1988-03-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,479 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,479 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,479
• − Insurance: −$5,814
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,249
• − Management: −$2,249
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $2,997
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$719
• After-tax cash flow: $3,954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winding Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-95.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed for Rent $1,500 FGCMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $139,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $155,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2024-06-20 Listed $189,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1996-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1988-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+28.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,479 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.