4513 Autumn Palm Dr · Zephyrhills South, FL 33542

$109,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1970 5,512 sqft lot Est $78k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and well-maintained 2BR/1BA mobile home situated on owned land with no HOA restrictions. This inviting property offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces and abundant natural light. Enjoy peaceful mornings or relaxing evenings on the screened-in porch, perfect for outdoor living year-round. The home also features a storage/workshop area with a dedicated laundry space, providing added versatility for hobbies or extra storage needs. A covered carport offers convenient, sheltered parking. Ideal as an investment property, winter retreat, or primary residence. Conveniently located near town with easy access to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities while still offerin

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Covered carport
• No hoa restrictions

Tags

• OWNED LAND
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• STORAGE WORKSHOP AREA
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY SPACE
• COVERED CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoning: RMH; Lot about 0.13 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Unfurnished

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: Other; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces north; Entry on one level
• Construction: Metal siding; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Building area approximately 1,424 square feet
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Front screened porch; Storage; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Front porch (screened); Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Outside laundry area; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.1% in Zephyrhills South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#836 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $110k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.51%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,952
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4550 Olive Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	720 (+7%)	1mo	$97,000	$135	81
4833 Royal Palm Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	2mo	$78,000	$116	78
37706 March Ln	0.28mi	2/1.5	672 (0%)	9mo	$80,000	$119	77
4927 Coral St	0.43mi	2/1.5	720 (+7%)	12mo	$66,000	$92	56
4632 Coral St	0.15mi	1/1.0 (-1)	588 (-12%)	9mo	$82,650	$141	55
37418 Hammond Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0	692 (+3%)	13mo	$62,000	$90	54
37437 Ray Dr	0.68mi	2/1.5	680 (+1%)	17mo	$74,900	$110	50
38317 Palm Grove Dr	0.50mi	1/1.0 (-1)	576 (-14%)	10mo	$37,500	$65	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,024
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $11,332
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $295/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $819

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $383	-5% $352	+0% $321	+5% $290	+10% $258
Rent	-10% $224	-5% $272	+0% $321	+5% $369	+10% $417
Rate	-1.0pp $376	-0.5pp $349	base $321	+0.5pp $292	+1.0pp $263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37925 Date Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,300	$1.81	25d	1	0.09mi
4412 Plum St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,100	$1.76	25d	1	0.32mi
4410 Plum St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,100	$1.76	25d	1	0.33mi
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	25d	1	0.36mi
4352 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$1,100	$2.23	25d	1	0.46mi
38044 6th Ave Unit 38044 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$950	$1.92	25d	1	0.64mi
5150 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	25d	1	0.76mi
5208 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	6d	1	0.85mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	17d	1	0.85mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	6d	1	0.85mi
5206 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	6d	1	0.85mi
38941 C Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	520	$1,050	$2.02	6d	1	1.00mi
5426 8th St #1 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$1,150	$2.66	25d	1	1.03mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	11d	1	1.06mi
5217 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,050	$1.94	25d	1	1.08mi
5611 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	17d	1	1.10mi
38010 14th Ave Apt 3 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	537	$1,195	$2.23	25d	1	1.22mi
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	23d	1	1.25mi
39041 Manor Dr Unit B Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	450	$1,000	$2.22	25d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,900 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $109,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-04-20
    listed $109,900 Active
15. 1994-11-04
    soldstatus $32,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $295 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$617/yr (+$51/mo · 208.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$295
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $2,146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$515
• After-tax cash flow: $3,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills South

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #836
• US rank: #20702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills South, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+238.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $295 · -17.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.