The Hampton Plan · Blue Ridge, TX 75424

$264,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,754 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the Hampton, a stunning example of one-level living that combines elegance and functionality. This home features 1,754 square feet of beautifully designed space, offering four spacious bedrooms and two meticulously crafted bathrooms. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living areas, making it ideal for both relaxation and entertaining. Step outside onto the covered patio or the inviting covered porch, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or hosting evening gatherings. Each detail of the Hampton has been thoughtfully considered to enhance your lifestyle, providing a harmonious blend of comfort and style.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Two car garage
• Walk in closet

Tags

• COVERED FRONT ENTRY
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• INTEGRATED COVERED BACK PATIO
• WALK IN CLOSET
• WELL APPOINTED BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $264,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,462.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-652 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (34.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,305 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #154 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 478 students, 51% FRL); Blue Ridge Middle (math 52% / reading 47%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 213 students, 51% FRL); Blue Ridge H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 318 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,000 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.50%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,462
• List price: $264,990
• Delta: -10.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
410 Heritage Grove Rd	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,878 (+7%)	9mo	$369,900	$197	79
209 Hilltop Cir	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+5%)	9mo	$299,900	$163	75
412 Heritage Grove Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (-8%)	6mo	$329,900	$205	74
416 Heritage Grove Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (+7%)	9mo	$399,900	$213	73
205 Woodhollow Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (-14%)	1mo	$299,900	$200	69
403 Heritage Grove Rd	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,878 (+7%)	24mo	$391,990	$209	68
609 S Business Highway 78	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (+2%)	13mo	$399,900	$223	66
401 S Morrow St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (-1%)	23mo	$320,000	$184	56
402 W Fm 545	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,577 (-10%)	7mo	$250,000	$159	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $118,843
• Equity at exit: $265,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $382,704
• Equity at exit: $572,076

Cash invested: $82,449 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75424

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,544
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$368 /mo · $4,417/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,576

Max offer price $200,050

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-449	-5% $-551	+0% $-652	+5% $-754	+10% $-856
Rent	-10% $-791	-5% $-722	+0% $-652	+5% $-583	+10% $-514
Rate	-1.0pp $-504	-0.5pp $-578	base $-652	+0.5pp $-729	+1.0pp $-806

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,616
• Closing costs: $8,834
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Bowling Ln Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	3.0	1442	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.55mi
2 Bowling Ln Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	2.5	1442	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,990 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,990 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,990 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,990 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,990 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,990 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,990 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,990 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,990 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $264,990 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,990 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,990 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,990 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $259,990 Active 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Introducing the Hampton, a stunning example of one-level living that combines elegance and functionality. This home features 1,754 square feet of beautifully designed space, offering four spacious bedrooms and two meticulously crafted bathrooms. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living areas, making it ideal for both relaxation and entertaining. Step outside onto the covered patio or the inviting covered porch, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or hosting evening gatherings. Each detail of the Hampton has been thoughtfully considered to enhance your lifestyle, providing a harmonious blend of comfort and style.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,494
• − Property taxes: −$4,417
• − Insurance: −$1,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$8,566
• Taxable loss: −$13,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,194
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810590
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,738
• Composite: 43.99/100
• National rank: #2894
• State rank: #154 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blue Ridge

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1305
• US rank: #22618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blue Ridge, TX
• City population: 3,908
• Population (ZIP): 3,908

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.07%
• Current HPI: 354.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $259,990 Zillow