88 W Pine Rd · Staatsburg, NY 12580

$419,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,517 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1970 4.00 ac lot Est $808k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Oversized Bi-level set on 4.00 acres. This is an incredible find at an affordable price. Fabulous home offers a beautifully u kitchen with ample cabinets, dishwasher, microwave, refrigerator, freshly painted, nice light fixtures, sky light and cute breakfast nook, 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths, living room with fireplace, lower level has entertainment room, full bath, laundry room, additional den. Main level office is a bonus room if you needed a 5th bedroom. Double deck for future spring entertaining. A wonderful improvement with a solar system. The savings will be provided as per request. Heating system, fuel oil. Conveniently located to historical tourist attractions, Marist College, Culinary

Key facts

• 4 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 garage space); 2 total parking spaces
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Central Hudson electric; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Private trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Bi-level
• Construction: Aluminum siding, brick, clapboard, and frame construction
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Mailbox

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ductless cooling; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Open kitchen; Washer/dryer hookup; Finished full basement with walk-out access; Crawl attic; Deck; 10 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room on basement level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($105k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $420k).
• Recommended offer: $407k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.3% vs local median 2.5% in Staatsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#639 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hyde Park Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #316 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Park Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 476 students, 50% FRL); Haviland Middle School (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #413 of 729 statewide, top 57%, 759 students, 59% FRL); Franklin D Roosevelt Senior High School (math 93% / reading 90%, grade A+, #197 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,136 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 34% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $118k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $231k; list at $420k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $407,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.48%
• DSCR: 4.98
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $807,957
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
259 Mills Cross Rd	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,537 (+1%)	17mo	$575,000	$227	64
10 High Wood Rd	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,808 (+12%)	10mo	$900,000	$321	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 90.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $490,668
• Equity at exit: $62,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 93.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.76×
• Total profit: $1,147,631
• Equity at exit: $36,305

Cash invested: $117,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12580

• Home prices YoY: -6.7%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax from tax record: −$706 /mo · $8,473/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,150
• Net cashflow: $8,767

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,903

Max offer price $419,900

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,005	-5% $8,886	+0% $8,767	+5% $8,648	+10% $8,529
Rent	-10% $7,582	-5% $8,174	+0% $8,767	+5% $9,359	+10% $9,952
Rate	-1.0pp $8,978	-0.5pp $8,874	base $8,767	+0.5pp $8,658	+1.0pp $8,547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,975
• Closing costs: $12,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1777 Route 9G Staatsburg, NY	4.0	3.0	3047	$15,000	$4.92	44d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   status Active
3. 2026-03-28
   status Active
4. 2026-03-19
   price $419,900
5. 2026-03-14
   listed $429,900 Active
6. 2026-03-10
   historical $429,900
7. 2024-02-03
   historical
8. 2024-02-03
   historical
9. 2020-10-01
   soldstatus $231,000
10. 2020-06-23
    listed $215,900
11. 2019-08-05
    listed $184,900
12. 2019-08-01
    historical
13. 2019-06-19
    listed $209,900
14. 2019-05-20
    listed $209,900
15. 1995-08-09
    soldstatus $127,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,473 · $706/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,473 · $706/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $180,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,521
• − Property taxes: −$8,473
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,400
• − Management: −$14,400
• − Depreciation: −$12,215
• Taxable income: $104,891
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25,174
• After-tax cash flow: $80,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hyde Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615180
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $68,932
• Composite: 46.59/100
• National rank: #2421
• State rank: #316 of 590 in NY

Livability — Staatsburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #639
• US rank: #11896

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,169

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.18%
• Current HPI: 269.4278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+230.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $419,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listed $429,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Coming Soon $429,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-01 Sold (MLS) $231,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-23 Listed $215,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-05 Listed $184,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-19 Listed $209,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-20 Listed $209,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,473 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.