959 Fentress Lookout Rd · Falls Of Rough, KY 40119

$119,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Other · 18 Days on market

0.52 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This property has three nice lots with partial chain link fencing. It has a two car detached garage. It has county water and septic system. A portion of the back section of the dwelling is a mobile home with the main structure being frame construction.

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 18 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-17/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Grayson County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #84 of 165 in KY (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Caneyville Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 390 students, 71% FRL); Grayson County Middle School (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #143 of 217 statewide, top 67%, 839 students, 63% FRL); Grayson County High School (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #118 of 254 statewide, top 47%, 1,252 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $120k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $104,352 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-8,608
• Equity at exit: $29,342

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,665
• Equity at exit: $31,236

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40119

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,792/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,045

Max offer price $119,289

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $40	+0% $-1	+5% $-43	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-84	-5% $-43	+0% $-1	+5% $40	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $29	base $-1	+0.5pp $-32	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $119,500 Active
3. 2026-03-17
   historical
4. 2025-10-14
   price $134,500
5. 2025-09-17
   listed $149,500 Active
6. 2013-03-01
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$1,792
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,002
• − Management: −$1,002
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable loss: −$2,042
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$490
• After-tax cash flow: $472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grayson County
• NCES district ID: 2102300
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $34,256
• Composite: 27.55/100
• National rank: #6944
• State rank: #84 of 165 in KY

Livability — Falls Of Rough

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,071

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,840 people
• By 2030: 27,032 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 27,236 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 27,076 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 26,565 · -1.0%
• By 2100: 24,007 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.5% · R 80.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.9pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+34.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.91%
• Current HPI: 363.2314
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+198.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $119,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $134,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $149,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records