🏷️ Likely Rental
5454 Timuquana Rd · Jacksonville, FL
Flood risk 4/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.2%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 107°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 20 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +20.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +6.4/10.0
- 1% rule +4.8/10.0
- Livability +4.2/5.0
- Schools +3.9/10.0
- Rent growth +3.0/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$137,500
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Income-producing and turn-key investment opportunity in a prime Timuquana Road location. This tenant-occupied property offers immediate cash flow, making it an ideal addition to any rental portfolio. Cross listed MLS 2130077 Zoned Commercial Neighborhood (CN), the property provides flexibility for a variety of residential and limited commercial uses (buyer to verify), enhancing both current income stability and long-term upside potential. Some interior photos have been virtually staged to showcase the home's potential scale and layout. Positioned along a high-visibility corridor with strong traffic counts and convenient access to major roadways, shopping, and established neighborhoods. The
Key facts
- Tenant occupied
- Turn key investment
- Income producing
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community: Not a senior community
Exterior
- Parking: Additional parking
- Utilities: Public sewer; Sewer connected; Water connected
- Home design: Single family residence; One story; Property used for both residential and commercial purposes
- Construction: Block construction; Metal roof
- Exterior features: Wood fencing; Corner lot; City street frontage
Interior
- Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
- Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
- Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
- Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
- Interior features: Carpet, laminate and tile flooring
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (1.7% below list).
- Recommended offer: $125k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
- Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Timucuan Elementary School (math 34% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,951 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 491 students, 77% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Westside High School (math 26% / reading 19%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 1,583 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- Current owner paid $65k; list at $138k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.98% ✗
- Cap rate
- 7.77%
- Cash-on-cash
- 5.28%
- DSCR
- 1.24
- GRM
- 8.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $175,462
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5257 Acoma Ave | 0.26mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,104 (+4%) | 5mo | $218,000 | $197 | 71 |
| 5105 Seaboard Ave | 0.51mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,104 (+4%) | 0mo | $165,000 | $149 | 62 |
| 5831 Carter Ln | 0.40mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,000 (-5%) | 4mo | $158,000 | $158 | 60 |
| 5163 Seaboard Ave | 0.46mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,144 (+8%) | 3mo | $227,000 | $198 | 58 |
| 5216 Timawatha Ave | 0.37mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,203 (+14%) | 4mo | $199,990 | $166 | 50 |
| 6148 Catoma St | 0.62mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,158 (+10%) | 4mo | $260,000 | $225 | 47 |
| 5174 Acre Estates Dr | 0.46mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,180 (+12%) | 13mo | $260,000 | $220 | 44 |
| 5126 Delphin Ln | 0.57mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,123 (+6%) | 15mo | $180,000 | $160 | 42 |
| 4815 Seaboard Ave | 0.64mi | 2/1.5 | 936 (-11%) | 12mo | $140,000 | $150 | 39 |
| 5819 110th St | 0.70mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,150 (+9%) | 7mo | $175,000 | $152 | 38 |
| 5156 Corsair Ave | 0.75mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,155 (+9%) | 9mo | $210,000 | $182 | 37 |
| 5176 110th St | 0.64mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,181 (+12%) | 12mo | $177,000 | $150 | 31 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 2.11% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -9.1%
- Equity multiple
- 0.67×
- Total profit
- $-12,697
- Equity at exit
- $20,502
- IRR
- -0.8%
- Equity multiple
- 0.95×
- Total profit
- $-2,038
- Equity at exit
- $11,888
Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 32210
- Rents YoY
- 2.1%
- Active inventory
- 441
- Price-to-rent
- 8.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,352 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$721
- Tax from tax record
- −$120 /mo · $1,440/yr
- Insurance
- −$57
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$284
- Net cashflow
- $170
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $247 | -5% $208 | +0% $170 | +5% $131 | +10% $92 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $63 | -5% $116 | +0% $170 | +5% $223 | +10% $276 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $239 | -0.5pp $204 | base $170 | +0.5pp $134 | +1.0pp $98 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $34,375
- Closing costs
- $4,125
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5685 Marathon Pkwy Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1015 | $1,000 | $0.99 | 21d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 5327 Timuquana Rd Jacksonville, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 950 | $1,249 | $1.31 | 3d | 27 | 0.31mi |
| 5558 Bennington Dr Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 988 | $1,275 | $1.29 | 6d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 5626 Bryner Dr Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1404 | $1,320 | $0.94 | 23d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 5058 Acre Estates Dr W Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1402 | $1,825 | $1.30 | 4d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 5640 Bryner Dr Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1000 | $1,260 | $1.26 | 25d | 1 | 0.40mi |
| 5642 Bryner Dr Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1406 | $1,290 | $0.92 | 23d | 1 | 0.40mi |
| 5700 Fishing Pen Creek Ct Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 854 | $1,100 | $1.29 | 4d | 8 | 0.43mi |
| 4800 Ortega Farms Blvd Jacksonville, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0 | 880 | $1,218 | $1.38 | 4d | 10 | 0.56mi |
| 4800 Ortega Farms Blvd Jacksonville, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0 | 880 | $1,232 | $1.40 | 12d | 9 | 0.56mi |
| 5375 Ortega Farms Blvd #715 Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1016 | $1,700 | $1.67 | 25d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 5958 Creekside Crossing Dr Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1404 | $1,895 | $1.35 | 12d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 5988 Creekside Crossing Dr Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1404 | $1,850 | $1.32 | 16d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 5984 Creekside Crossing Dr Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1404 | $1,695 | $1.21 | 16d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 6221 Alfredo Dr W Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1133 | $1,710 | $1.51 | 5d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 5984 Windsor Forest Dr Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 1.5 | 900 | $1,174 | $1.30 | 23d | 2 | 0.95mi |
| 5985 Windsor Forest Dr Unit 23 Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 1.5 | 900 | $999 | $1.11 | 23d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 5985 Windsor Forest Dr Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 1.5 | 900 | $1,099 | $1.22 | 9d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 5985 Windsor Forest Dr Unit 15 Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 1.5 | 900 | $999 | $1.11 | 9d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 4343 Ortega Farms Cir Unit A Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $1,950 | $2.44 | 25d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 4455 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.5 | 1045 | $1,339 | $1.28 | 3d | 19 | 1.04mi |
| 5983 Ortega Lake Dr Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1400 | $1,950 | $1.39 | 25d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 4375 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.5 | 1125 | $1,288 | $1.14 | 4d | 22 | 1.16mi |
| 6136 Blanding Blvd Jacksonville, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1030 | $1,752 | $1.70 | 3d | 9 | 1.22mi |
| 4301 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1042 | $1,412 | $1.36 | 4d | 39 | 1.29mi |
| 5745 Antoinette Ln Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1200 | $1,150 | $0.96 | 4d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 5747 Antoinette Ln Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1200 | $1,195 | $1.00 | 25d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 4804 Ducheneau Dr Unit 26 Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1182 | $1,635 | $1.38 | 25d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 6379 Delacy Rd Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1296 | $1,495 | $1.15 | 25d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 6528 Sweetbay Ln Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1040 | $1,150 | $1.11 | 25d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 6408 Sweetbay Ln Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 951 | $1,225 | $1.29 | 18d | 1 | 1.42mi |
| 6534 Sweetbay Ln Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 951 | $1,225 | $1.29 | 25d | 1 | 1.42mi |
| 6522 Sweetbay Ln Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 951 | $1,195 | $1.26 | 25d | 1 | 1.42mi |
| 6063 Maggies Cir #110 Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1335 | $1,350 | $1.01 | 6d | 1 | 1.42mi |
| 6063 Maggies Cir Jacksonville, FL | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0 | 1121 | $1,300 | $1.16 | 18d | 2 | 1.42mi |
| 5933 Jammes Rd Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1071 | $1,900 | $1.77 | 25d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 6051 Maggies Cir #107 Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1335 | $1,400 | $1.05 | 23d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 6547 Sweetbay Ln Unit 102 Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1040 | $1,195 | $1.15 | 6d | 1 | 1.45mi |
| 6461 Sweetbay Ln Jacksonville, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 995 | $1,295 | $1.30 | 18d | 4 | 1.48mi |
| 6112 Maggies Cir #108 Jacksonville, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1335 | $1,375 | $1.03 | 25d | 1 | 1.48mi |
Listing history 14 events
-
2026-06-10days on market $137,500 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $137,500 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $137,500 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $137,500 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $137,500 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $137,500 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $137,500 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-04-21price $137,500
-
2026-04-07price $140,000
-
2026-03-14price $145,000
-
2026-03-03price $150,000
-
2026-02-24price $155,000
-
2026-02-13$159,000 Active
-
2021-07-06soldstatus $65,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,440 · $120/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,440 · $120/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $16,221
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,702
- − Property taxes
- −$1,440
- − Insurance
- −$688
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,298
- − Management
- −$1,298
- − Depreciation
- −$4,000
- Taxable loss
- −$204
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$49
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,083/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Duval
- NCES district ID
- 1200480
- Math proficiency
- 46% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 45% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $48,987
- Composite
- 38.97/100
- National rank
- #4076
- State rank
- #48 of 73 in FL
Livability — Jacksonville
- Score
- 83/100
- State rank
- #50
- US rank
- #911
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Jacksonville, FL
- County
- Duval County · 1,015,274 people
- City population
- 979,034
- Metro
- Jacksonville, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 65,729
- Household income
- $61,050
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 3605.0
Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,013,010 people
- By 2030
- 1,059,228 · +4.6%
- By 2040
- 1,141,439 · +12.7%
- By 2050
- 1,205,258 · +19.0%
- By 2075
- 1,324,282 · +30.7%
- By 2100
- 1,319,620 · +30.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 43% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
- Languages at home
- 86% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Duval
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -314.81%
- Current HPI
- 281.2688
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 2.11%
- Metro
- Jacksonville, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
||
Price history
+111.5% since first listed7 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-21 Price Changed $137,500 realMLS
- 2026-04-07 Price Changed $140,000 realMLS
- 2026-03-14 Price Changed $145,000 realMLS
- 2026-03-03 Price Changed $150,000 realMLS
- 2026-02-24 Price Changed $155,000 realMLS
- 2026-02-13 Listed $159,000 realMLS
- 2021-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+0.5%/yrLatest (2025): $1,440 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…