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13731 Messina Loop #102
F Composite 33.57
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Schools +6.9/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.4/10.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0
  • Rent growth +1.2/5.0
  • Cash flow +0.6/30.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$365,000

13731 Messina Loop #102 · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · Condo public records · 161 Days on market
Built 2019 Good condition 1-car garage $239/sqft · 19% below area Est $452k · 19% under $1378/mo HOA · 45% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

An excellent investment opportunity with a lease already in place, this garden condominium in Esplanade Golf & Country Club offers immediate income in a highly desirable Lakewood Ranch community. This Caserta VII floor plan features two bedrooms, two baths, and a versatile den or flex space, designed with an open-concept layout that appeals to today’s renters and future owners alike. The foyer leads into a spacious dining area and great room, where sliding glass doors open to a covered, screened lanai overlooking tranquil lake and golf course views.

Key facts

  • 42-inch cabinetry
  • Granite countertops
  • Oversized island

Tags

OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUTCOVERED SCREENED LANAILAKE AND GOLF COURSE VIEWS42-INCH CABINETRYGRANITE COUNTERTOPSOVERSIZED ISLAND

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $365k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (63.9% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (16.1% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $132k (63.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 1.1% vs local median 2.9% in Lakewood Ranch — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
  • Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
  • Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1554 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: HOA is 45% of rent.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $131,676 (63.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
  5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.84%
Cap rate
1.12%
Cash-on-cash
-18.48%
DSCR
0.18
GRM
9.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$452,431
List price
$365,000
Delta
-19.32%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
13916 Messina Loop 0.15mi 2/2.0 1,838 (+20%) 0mo $699,000 $380 68
12660 Sorrento Way #204 1.07mi 2/2.0 1,528 (0%) 0mo $350,000 $229 65
15665 Sacile Ln 1.46mi 2/2.0 1,558 (+2%) 1mo $420,000 $270 61
15308 Sunny Day Dr 0.96mi 2/2.0 1,564 (+2%) 0mo $327,000 $209 61
12303 Tall Pines Way 1.43mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,536 (+0%) 1mo $420,000 $273 58
5126 Savona Run 0.71mi 2/2.0 1,692 (+11%) 1mo $445,000 $263 48
12356 Trailhead Dr 1.18mi 3/2.5 (+1) 1,653 (+8%) 0mo $310,000 $188 44
12848 Del Corso Loop 0.69mi 2/2.0 1,895 (+24%) 0mo $567,000 $299 42
14228 Lilac Sky Ter 0.71mi 3/2.5 (+1) 1,352 (-12%) 0mo $255,000 $189 41
11956 Sky Acres Ter 1.38mi 3/2.5 (+1) 1,747 (+14%) 1mo $330,000 $189 33
15148 Lyla Ter 0.86mi 3/2.5 (+1) 1,887 (+24%) 0mo $323,000 $171 33
5105 Marina Basin Ct 1.31mi 3/3.0 (+1) 1,840 (+20%) 0mo $630,000 $342 31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-60.3%
Equity multiple
-0.64×
Total profit
$-167,386
Equity at exit
$54,423
10-year hold
IRR
Equity multiple
-1.99×
Total profit
$-305,626
Equity at exit
$31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

ZIP-level market 34211

Home prices YoY
-27.5%
Rents YoY
-5.2%
Active inventory
1554
Price-to-rent
9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$3,062 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,914
Tax from tax record
$549 /mo · $6,584/yr
Insurance
$152
HOA
$1,378
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$643
Net cashflow
$-1,573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,054
Max offer price $131,676
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-1,367 -5% $-1,470 +0% $-1,573 +5% $-1,677 +10% $-1,780
Rent -10% $-1,815 -5% $-1,694 +0% $-1,573 +5% $-1,453 +10% $-1,332
Rate -1.0pp $-1,390 -0.5pp $-1,481 base $-1,573 +0.5pp $-1,668 +1.0pp $-1,764

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$91,250
Closing costs
$10,950
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
13732 Messina Loop #201 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1528 $2,775 $1.82 111d 1 0.02mi
13725 Messina Loop #201 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1528 $2,900 $1.90 119d 1 0.04mi
13737 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1528 $4,750 $3.11 65d 1 0.04mi
13711 Messina Loop #203 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1528 $3,200 $2.09 111d 1 0.09mi
13711 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1528 $5,600 $3.66 9d 1 0.09mi
13823 Messina Loop #203 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1528 $2,700 $1.77 9d 1 0.11mi
13710 Messina Loop #203 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1528 $3,200 $2.09 119d 1 0.11mi
13703 Messina Loop #102 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1528 $2,750 $1.80 119d 1 0.13mi
13720 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1528 $4,500 $2.95 9d 2 0.14mi
13605 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1528 $4,400 $2.88 115d 1 0.18mi
13605 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1632 $2,200 $1.35 9d 1 0.18mi
13605 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1528 $3,450 $2.26 119d 2 0.18mi
13604 Messina Loop #103 Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1528 $6,500 $4.25 80d 1 0.19mi
13241 Torresina Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1920 $3,900 $2.03 82d 1 0.43mi
5336 Vaccaro Ct Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1966 $5,000 $2.54 119d 1 0.70mi
14776 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1879 $4,500 $2.39 119d 1 0.73mi
14775 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1879 $2,600 $1.38 115d 1 0.75mi
14318 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1350 $3,100 $2.30 9d 1 0.75mi
14322 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1347 $2,295 $1.70 0d 1 0.75mi
14072 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1347 $2,290 $1.70 119d 1 0.76mi
14068 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1347 $2,200 $1.63 9d 1 0.76mi
14060 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1347 $2,195 $1.63 9d 1 0.76mi
14165 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1405 $3,000 $2.14 5d 1 0.76mi
14052 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1405 $2,395 $1.70 9d 1 0.76mi
14052 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1405 $2,395 $1.70 111d 1 0.76mi
14736 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1700 $3,000 $1.76 111d 1 0.76mi
14753 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1879 $2,600 $1.38 106d 1 0.76mi
15035 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1880 $2,950 $1.57 119d 1 0.77mi
15016 Misty Water Xing Unit NA Bradenton, FL 3.0 3.0 1849 $3,195 $1.73 93d 1 0.77mi
14087 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1352 $2,250 $1.66 78d 1 0.78mi
13700 Luxe Ave Bradenton, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1125 $2,046 $1.82 0d 29 0.78mi
13700 Luxe Ave Bradenton, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1065 $1,882 $1.77 62d 34 0.78mi
14424 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1405 $2,295 $1.63 62d 1 0.78mi
14428 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1347 $2,300 $1.71 117d 1 0.79mi
14432 Lilac Sky Ter Unit Main Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1567 $2,200 $1.40 88d 1 0.79mi
14432 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1414 $2,400 $1.70 9d 1 0.79mi
14035 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1414 $2,500 $1.77 9d 1 0.79mi
14440 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1347 $1,995 $1.48 115d 1 0.79mi
15110 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1925 $2,400 $1.25 74d 1 0.79mi
14448 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1352 $2,245 $1.66 78d 1 0.80mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Condo fee amount listed as $532 monthly (quarterly fee term shown)Condo fees listed as $1,595 (quarterly)
Financial info
Total monthly fees (including all assessments) approximately $1,378.33Total annual fees approximately $16,540Other annual assessment amount approximately $1,103Lease restrictions apply
HOA & community
HOA required (Esplanade Golf and Country Club - Travis Hill)Monthly HOA approximately $771.67Quarterly association fee approximately $2,315Association fees cover pool, escrow reserves, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilities, and securityCommunity amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, golf, golf carts allowed, community mailbox, sidewalks, reclaimed water irrigation, deed restrictions, special community restrictionsPets allowed (maximum weight 35 lbs)

Exterior

Parking
1-car garage
Security
Community security included in association
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerCable availableBB/HS internet availableElectricity connectedNatural gas connectedWater connected
Home design
CondominiumOne-level livingSoutheast facing
Construction
Stucco constructionTile roofSlab foundationBuilt with 2 total stories in the building
Exterior features
Rear screened porchExterior lighting

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorExhaust fan
Bedrooms
2 bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetTile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Eat-in kitchenHigh ceilingsLiving room/dining room comboOpen floorplanThermostatWalk-in closet(s)
Laundry & utility
WasherDryerInside laundry room

HOA detail $1,378/mo · $16,536/yr condo

Assessments
None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-22
    days on market $365,000 Active 161 DOM
  2. 2026-09-21
    days on market $365,000 Active 160 DOM
  3. 2026-09-20
    days on market $365,000 Active 159 DOM
  4. 2026-09-19
    days on market $365,000 Active 158 DOM
  5. 2026-09-18
    days on market $365,000 Active 157 DOM
  6. 2026-09-17
    days on market $365,000 Active 156 DOM
  7. 2026-09-16
    days on market $365,000 Active 155 DOM
  8. 2026-09-15
    days on market $365,000 Active 154 DOM
  9. 2026-09-14
    days on market $365,000 Active 153 DOM
  10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $365,000 Active 152 DOM
  11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $365,000 Active 151 DOM
  12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $365,000 Active 150 DOM
  13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $365,000 Active 144 DOM
  14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $365,000 Active 143 DOM
  15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 142 DOM
  16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 139 DOM
  17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $365,000 Active 138 DOM
  18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $365,000 Active 137 DOM
  19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $365,000 Active 136 DOM
  20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $365,000 Active 135 DOM
  21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $365,000 Active 134 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $365,000 Active 133 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $365,000 Active 132 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $365,000 Active 131 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $365,000 Active 130 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $365,000 Active 129 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $365,000 Active 128 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $365,000 Active 127 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $365,000 Active 126 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $365,000 Active 125 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $365,000 Active 124 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $365,000 Active 123 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $365,000 Active 122 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $365,000 Active 121 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $365,000 Active 120 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $365,000 Active 119 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $365,000 Active 118 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $365,000 Active 117 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $365,000 Active 116 DOM
  40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $365,000 Active 115 DOM
  41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $365,000 Active 114 DOM
  42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $365,000 Active 113 DOM
  43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $365,000 Active 112 DOM
  44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 111 DOM
  45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 108 DOM
  46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $365,000 Active 106 DOM
  47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $365,000 Active 105 DOM
  48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $365,000 Active 101 DOM
  49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $365,000 Active 100 DOM
  50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $365,000 Active 99 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$6,584 · $549/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$6,584 · $549/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$36,750
− Mortgage interest
−$20,446
− Property taxes
−$6,584
− Insurance
−$1,825
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,940
− Management
−$2,940
− HOA
−$16,536
− Depreciation
−$10,618
Taxable loss
−$25,139
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$6,033
After-tax cash flow
$-12,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This garden condominium in Esplanade Golf & Country Club is in excellent condition with a lease already in place, offering immediate income in a highly desirable Lakewood Ranch community.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
  • Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value
  • Both Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and adds value
C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary B.d. Gullett Elementary School A FL #211/2,144 Nat'l #2,011/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Manatee
NCES district ID
1201230
Math proficiency
54% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$49,607
Composite
44.43/100
National rank
#2806
State rank
#26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place
Lakewood Ranch, FL
County
Manatee County · 447,342 people
City population
52,177
Metro
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Population (ZIP)
24,980
Household income
$119,911
Rent vs Own
21.7% rent · 78.3% own
Severe rent burden
10% of renters

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
447,342 people
By 2030
488,911 · +9.3%
By 2040
567,934 · +27.0%
By 2050
637,995 · +42.6%
By 2075
781,970 · +74.8%
By 2100
848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (81%)
Race & ethnicity
White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
Foreign-born
16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
Languages at home
81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

2024 margin
Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
2008→2024 swing
-16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+0.0% since first listed
5 events — show timeline
  • 2026-04-14 Listed $365,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-12-03 Rental Removed STELLARMLS
  • 2022-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $365,000 Public Records
  • 2022-01-11 Listed $365,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-01-11 Sold (MLS) $365,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,584 · -9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…