19500 E Gregory St #22 · Black Canyon City, AZ 85324

$154,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Built 2003 Fair condition 2,500 sqft lot Est $280k · 45% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Positivelt charming Santa Fe home that is filled with light and warmth! Situated on a large corner lot in a 55+ park. This beautifully maintained home will not disappoint. Two bedrooms and 2 bathroooms, inside laundry 2 car tandum carport, block fenced yard and shed/workshop. Water, trash and sewer included in lot fee.

Key facts

• Shed workshop
• Large corner lot
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• SHED WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Old Black Canyon HWY to Gregory Street, enter park through gate.
• HOA & community: Monthly land lease of $525; Association fees include water, sewer, trash, and grounds maintenance; Community pool, community spa, and fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 2 open parking spaces; 1 carport space
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Private water company; Sewer connected (private sewer)
• Home design: Manufactured / Mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Mountain view
• Construction: Wood siding and wood/steel frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Desert front and back landscaping with grass in back; Asphalt road access; Heated spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Laminate countertops; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $154k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#213 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Canon Elementary District (4484) (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #294 of 501 in AZ (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Canon School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 131 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 65% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Canon Elementary District (4484) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,380 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.28%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,552
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19741 E Indian Hills Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,345 (+0%)	2mo	$256,000	$190	70
34311 S Luellen Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,441 (+7%)	9mo	$289,900	$201	61
34580 S Albins St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,189 (-12%)	9mo	$260,000	$219	51
34965 S School Loop Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,346 (+0%)	19mo	$241,000	$179	51
19381 E Spencer St	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	24mo	$150,000	$130	48
34775 S Cholla Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,222 (-9%)	18mo	$325,000	$266	42
34820 S Desert Cv	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	11mo	$335,000	$233	42
34840 S Desert Cv	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,503 (+12%)	10mo	$312,000	$208	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $91,975
• Equity at exit: $138,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.15×
• Total profit: $265,292
• Equity at exit: $299,188

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85324

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$192 /mo · $2,310/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,887

Max offer price $154,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $154,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $154,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $154,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $160,000 Active 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Positivelt charming Santa Fe home that is filled with light and warmth! Situated on a large corner lot in a 55+ park. This beautifully maintained home will not disappoint. Two bedrooms and 2 bathroooms, inside laundry 2 car tandum carport, block fenced yard and shed/workshop. Water, trash and sewer included in lot fee.

18. 2026-05-12
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$2,310
• − Insurance: −$5,888
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,961
• − Management: −$1,961
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable loss: −$719
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$172
• After-tax cash flow: $1,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Painting the exterior and updating the kitchen appliances would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor cabinets — slight wear
• Minor countertops — slight wear
• Minor appliances — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and value
• Resale update kitchen appliances — modernizes kitchen and attracts buyers
• Resale repair cabinets — improves kitchen functionality and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
countertops · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
appliances · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale update kitchen appliances — modernizes kitchen and attracts buyers ↑
• Resale repair cabinets — improves kitchen functionality and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canon Elementary District (4484)
• NCES district ID: 0401650
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,755
• Composite: 27.85/100
• National rank: #12286
• State rank: #294 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Black Canyon City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #21226

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Canyon City, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,297

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.16%
• Current HPI: 417.6032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $160,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $160,000 ARMLS