1110 Hickory Flats Rd · Pennington Gap, VA 24277

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,903 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1976 0.28 ac lot $87/sqft · 19% below area Est $203k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 BEDROOM HOME FOR SALE IN THE DESIRABLE HICKORY FLATS AREA OF PENNINGTON GAP VA! Take a look at this beautiful home featuring: 4 bedrooms (optional 5th), 2 bathrooms, living room, kitchen, LVP flooring, metal roof, fenced yard, covered porch, great location, and so much more! Call today to schedule your tour!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Metal roof
• Fenced yard

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• METAL ROOF
• FENCED YARD
• COVERED PORCH
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-755/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#410 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $165k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,086 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,922
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -18.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
141 Clyde Ellis Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-5%)	6mo	$175,760	$98	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $39,582
• Equity at exit: $99,446

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $120,602
• Equity at exit: $176,809

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24277

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,033/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,291

Max offer price $153,779

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,900 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    price $164,900 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    4 BEDROOM HOME FOR SALE IN THE DESIRABLE HICKORY FLATS AREA OF PENNINGTON GAP VA! Take a look at this beautiful home featuring: 4 bedrooms (optional 5th), 2 bathrooms, living room, kitchen, LVP flooring, metal roof, fenced yard, covered porch, great location, and so much more! Call today to schedule your tour!

17. 2026-03-04
    price $169,900 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    4 BEDROOM HOME FOR SALE IN THE DESIRABLE HICKORY FLATS AREA OF PENNINGTON GAP VA! Take a look at this beautiful home featuring: 4 bedrooms (optional 5th), 2 bathrooms, living room, kitchen, LVP flooring, metal roof, fenced yard, covered porch, great location, and so much more! Call today to schedule your tour!

18. 2026-02-04
    listed $165,000 Active 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    4 BEDROOM HOME FOR SALE IN THE DESIRABLE HICKORY FLATS AREA OF PENNINGTON GAP VA! Take a look at this beautiful home featuring: 4 bedrooms (optional 5th), 2 bathrooms, living room, kitchen, LVP flooring, metal roof, fenced yard, covered porch, great location, and so much more! Call today to schedule your tour!

19. 2025-07-24
    price $185,000
20. 2025-05-02
    price $189,900
21. 2024-04-05
    price $199,900
22. 1997-12-30
    soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,033 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,352 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$319/yr (+$27/mo · 30.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,033
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,162
• − Management: −$1,162
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$3,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$885
• After-tax cash flow: $129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $31,356
• Composite: 50.06/100
• National rank: #1913
• State rank: #62 of 131 in VA

Livability — Pennington Gap

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #17149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,379

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,861 people
• By 2030: 21,701 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,188 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 16,619 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 11,795 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 8,290 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.8% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.59%
• Current HPI: 165.997
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+161.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $164,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $169,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $165,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $185,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $189,900 TVRMLS
• 2024-04-05 Price Changed $199,900 TVRMLS
• 1997-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,033 · +67.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.