4534 Lake Road East #71 · Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH 44041

$64,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,066 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 2024 Fair condition 4,356 sqft lot ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This brand new 2024 Clayton model features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a nice open floor plan, a brand new large deck and a paved driveway with 2 parking spaces. The large kitchen has plenty of cabinet space, along with brand new stainless steel appliances. Located on a corner lot, this property overlooks a beautiful park like setting. Located in Lake Grove Mobile Home Park, directly across the street from Lake Erie and just minutes to GOTL. Call to schedule your showing today!!

Key facts

• Clayton lux windows
• 8 x 12 storage shed
• 4,356 sq ft lot

Tags

• LOW-MAINTENANCE VINYL EXTERIOR
• 8 X 12 STORAGE SHED
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT SYSTEMS
• ECOBEE SMART WI-FI THERMOSTAT
• CLAYTON LUX WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Has land lease of $510 per month
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Land lease present with monthly amount

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking on concrete
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Built by Clayton
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Deck; Lot approximately 0.1 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Window cooling units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Smart home features; Smart thermostat; ENERGY STAR qualified windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Geneva Area City (town): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #362 of 656 in OH (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $63,926 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.10%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,692
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4534 Lake Rd E #71	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-1%)	19mo	$60,000	$57	83
4534 Lake Rd E #41	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+8%)	12mo	$50,000	$43	77
5089 S Geneva Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+15%)	2mo	$227,000	$185	62
4949 Palmetto Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,185 (+11%)	6mo	$155,000	$131	61
4974 Palmer Dr	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,052 (-1%)	16mo	$245,000	$233	59
4815 Lake Rd E	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-5%)	15mo	$230,000	$228	58
4811 Linda Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+4%)	15mo	$165,000	$149	53
4879 Hawley Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-5%)	14mo	$220,000	$218	51
4921 Hawley Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,165 (+9%)	17mo	$189,000	$162	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $22,395
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $61,931
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44041

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,221 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $568

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $561	-5% $539	+0% $516	+5% $494	+10% $472
Rent	-10% $420	-5% $468	+0% $516	+5% $565	+10% $613
Rate	-1.0pp $549	-0.5pp $533	base $516	+0.5pp $500	+1.0pp $483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $64,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $64,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $64,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $64,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $64,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $68,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $68,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $68,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $68,900 Active
17. 2024-11-22
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    This brand new 2024 Clayton model features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a nice open floor plan, a brand new large deck and a paved driveway with 2 parking spaces. The large kitchen has plenty of cabinet space, along with brand new stainless steel appliances. Located on a corner lot, this property overlooks a beautiful park like setting. Located in Lake Grove Mobile Home Park, directly across the street from Lake Erie and just minutes to GOTL. Call to schedule your showing today!!

18. 2024-11-11
    status Pending 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    This brand new 2024 Clayton model features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a nice open floor plan, a brand new large deck and a paved driveway with 2 parking spaces. The large kitchen has plenty of cabinet space, along with brand new stainless steel appliances. Located on a corner lot, this property overlooks a beautiful park like setting. Located in Lake Grove Mobile Home Park, directly across the street from Lake Erie and just minutes to GOTL. Call to schedule your showing today!!

19. 2024-09-17
    price $78,900 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    This brand new 2024 Clayton model features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a nice open floor plan, a brand new large deck and a paved driveway with 2 parking spaces. The large kitchen has plenty of cabinet space, along with brand new stainless steel appliances. Located on a corner lot, this property overlooks a beautiful park like setting. Located in Lake Grove Mobile Home Park, directly across the street from Lake Erie and just minutes to GOTL. Call to schedule your showing today!!

20. 2024-06-28
    price $87,000 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    This brand new 2024 Clayton model features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a nice open floor plan, a brand new large deck and a paved driveway with 2 parking spaces. The large kitchen has plenty of cabinet space, along with brand new stainless steel appliances. Located on a corner lot, this property overlooks a beautiful park like setting. Located in Lake Grove Mobile Home Park, directly across the street from Lake Erie and just minutes to GOTL. Call to schedule your showing today!!

21. 2024-03-12
    listed $95,000 Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    This brand new 2024 Clayton model features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a nice open floor plan, a brand new large deck and a paved driveway with 2 parking spaces. The large kitchen has plenty of cabinet space, along with brand new stainless steel appliances. Located on a corner lot, this property overlooks a beautiful park like setting. Located in Lake Grove Mobile Home Park, directly across the street from Lake Erie and just minutes to GOTL. Call to schedule your showing today!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,173
• − Management: −$1,173
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $5,491
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,318
• After-tax cash flow: $4,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires significant repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding, interior walls, HVAC, and landscaping. It has potential for substantial value increase with these improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major interior walls/paint — No photos of interior walls
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of HVAC/mechanicals
• Major landscaping — Overgrown lawn

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Rental service HVAC/mechanicals — Well-maintained HVAC improves tenant satisfaction
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained lawn enhances curb appeal and tenant satisfaction

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No photos of interior walls	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown lawn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental service HVAC/mechanicals — Well-maintained HVAC improves tenant satisfaction ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained lawn enhances curb appeal and tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Geneva Area City
• NCES district ID: 3904405
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,525
• Composite: 47.12/100
• National rank: #2328
• State rank: #362 of 656 in OH

Livability — Geneva-on-the-Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH
• County: Ashtabula · 97,617 people
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 13,992
• Household income: $58,438
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 12.5

Population outlook (Ashtabula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,950 people
• By 2030: 89,146 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 80,715 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 72,270 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 55,780 · -40.0%
• By 2100: 40,928 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashtabula

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.9pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.04%
• Current HPI: 230.8747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-27.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $68,900 MLSNOW
• 2024-11-22 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-11-11 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2024-09-17 Price Changed $78,900 MLSNOW
• 2024-06-28 Price Changed $87,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-03-12 Listed $95,000 MLSNOW