4755 20th St · Zephyrhills, FL 33542

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,038 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1959 6,600 sqft lot Est $247k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment Opportunity.

Key facts

• 6,600 sq ft lot
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $125k implies a 291% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.49%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,044
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4932 20th St	0.17mi	2/1.5	950 (-8%)	2mo	$125,000	$132	75
4754 17th St	0.16mi	2/1.0	936 (-10%)	8mo	$140,000	$150	70
4939 18th St	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	12mo	$243,000	$225	69
4802 18th St	0.10mi	2/2.0	932 (-10%)	10mo	$252,000	$270	66
5328 17th St	0.58mi	2/1.0	984 (-5%)	6mo	$162,500	$165	59
5121 10th St	0.44mi	2/1.0	936 (-10%)	8mo	$282,500	$302	56
39219 5th Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,030 (-1%)	0mo	$245,000	$238	56
4515 5th St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	996 (-4%)	1mo	$258,000	$259	51
5323 23rd St	0.60mi	2/2.0	962 (-7%)	11mo	$250,000	$260	46
5341 Tangerine Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,110 (+7%)	8mo	$267,000	$241	45
5410 Satsuma Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0	910 (-12%)	2mo	$215,000	$236	44
39051 Manor Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,153 (+11%)	13mo	$229,000	$199	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-8,716
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,625
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,460 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,378/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,147

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4738 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,400	$1.73	24d	1	0.04mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	10d	1	0.05mi
4845 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	752	$1,350	$1.80	24d	1	0.09mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	4d	1	0.19mi
4940 9th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	24d	1	0.33mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,595	$1.46	24d	1	0.34mi
38702 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	24d	1	0.34mi
39252 Heights Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1210	$2,050	$1.69	14d	1	0.61mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	24d	1	0.68mi
4940 4th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	24d	1	0.70mi
5532 20th St Unit 1234470P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$7,185	$8.56	1d	1	0.77mi
5542 20th St Unit 1234473P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$3,199	$3.81	2d	1	0.78mi
5600 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$1,100	$1.51	24d	1	0.86mi
5532 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	862	$1,100	$1.28	12d	1	0.88mi
38236 Fir Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	24d	1	0.89mi
5647 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	0.90mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	24d	1	0.91mi
38942 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	0.92mi
38055 Woodgate Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,400	$0.96	24d	1	0.99mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	24d	1	1.05mi
5812 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	24d	1	1.05mi
5143 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,750	$1.22	24d	1	1.07mi
4812 Coral St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	856	$1,200	$1.40	19d	1	1.08mi
37925 Date Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,300	$1.81	24d	1	1.08mi
5237 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$1,700	$1.76	24d	1	1.11mi
4639 Coral St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	24d	1	1.12mi
37902 7th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,775	$1.97	24d	1	1.16mi
38719 12th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	1246	$1,400	$1.12	24d	1	1.19mi
37819 Alissa Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	17d	1	1.20mi
38939 North Ave Unit 2 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,300	$1.49	17d	1	1.23mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	24d	1	1.30mi
38031 Meyer Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	24d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-02-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-12
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 2024-11-07
   historical
4. 2024-08-09
   price $145,000
5. 2024-08-01
   listed $149,000 Active
6. 2024-06-14
   status Pending
7. 2024-06-14
   historical
8. 2024-06-11
   price $174,900
9. 2024-06-04
   status Active
10. 2024-05-22
    status Pending
11. 2024-05-07
    price $189,000
12. 2024-04-23
    price $194,900
13. 2024-04-09
    listed $199,900 Active
14. 2017-02-08
    soldstatus $32,000 Sold
15. 2016-12-19
    status Pending
16. 2016-03-26
    historical Contingent - Pending 3rd Party Approval
17. 2016-03-21
    listed $45,000 Active
18. 2016-03-18
    historical
19. 2016-02-19
    listed $45,000 Active
20. 1995-07-20
    soldstatus $32,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,378 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,378 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,378
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,075
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$258
• After-tax cash flow: $2,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+284.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-01 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-07 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-23 Price Changed $194,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-09 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-08 Sold (MLS) $32,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-26 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-21 Listed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-19 Listed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,378 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.