Dallas Plan · Hockley, TX 77447

$342,990

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,408 sqft · SingleFamily · 281 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Dallas floor plan offers a spacious two-story design with 2,477 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space, featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This versatile layout is ideal for families seeking both open gathering areas and private retreats. The main floor welcomes you with an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating the perfect setting for entertaining or relaxing. The modern kitchen boasts a large island, generous counter space, and ample cabinetry, making meal prep and family dinners easy and enjoyable. A first-floor bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a private escape complete with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a versatile loft space provide plenty of room for family, hobbies, or a home office. With thoughtful storage options, a convenient laundry room, and open sightlines throughout, the Dallas floor plan combines functionality, style, and comfort- perfect for modern families who value space, flexibility, and connection in their everyday living.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 280 days

🏗️ New construction. The $342,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $384,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $343k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-441 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.0% in Hockley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2630 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($302k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,404 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.17%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,990
• List price: $342,990
• Delta: -10.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22131 San Felice Dr	0.07mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,532 (+5%)	0mo	$387,990	$153	77
20023 Sedona Park Dr	0.06mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,526 (+5%)	10mo	$399,990	$158	75
21642 Carbonari Dr	0.03mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,637 (+10%)	4mo	$341,990	$130	73
21611 Carbonari Dr	0.03mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,637 (+10%)	5mo	$362,990	$138	72
21619 Carbonari Dr	0.03mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,637 (+10%)	5mo	$364,990	$138	72
19067 Cetara Villa Dr	0.37mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,526 (+5%)	8mo	$359,990	$143	63
19554 Perissa Terrace Dr	0.57mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,733 (+14%)	16mo	$352,740	$129	30
22011 Giulia Village Dr	0.67mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,733 (+14%)	15mo	$359,040	$131	27
21931 Corsica View Dr	0.62mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,733 (+14%)	22mo	$405,990	$149	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-98,853
• Equity at exit: $57,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-154,659
• Equity at exit: $33,287

Cash invested: $107,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 41 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.4 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $325,000 ($134/sqft)
• Median days on market: 113 d
• This list price: 71% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2630
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,894 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$481 /mo · $5,775/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $-441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,452

Max offer price $321,213

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-175	-5% $-308	+0% $-441	+5% $-574	+10% $-707
Rent	-10% $-669	-5% $-555	+0% $-441	+5% $-326	+10% $-212
Rate	-1.0pp $-247	-0.5pp $-343	base $-441	+0.5pp $-541	+1.0pp $-642

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,248
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20722 Nala Bear Dr Hockley, TX	5.0	2.5	2593	$2,100	$0.81	128d	1	0.42mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2069	$3,170	$1.53	0d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $342,990 Active 281 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $342,990 Active 280 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $342,990 Active 279 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $342,990 Active 278 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $342,990 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $342,990 Active 275 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $342,990 Active 274 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $342,990 Active 273 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $342,990 Active 272 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $342,990 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $342,990 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $342,990 Active 269 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $342,990 Active 268 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $342,990 Active 267 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $342,990 Active 266 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $342,990 Active 265 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $342,990 Active 264 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $342,990 Active 263 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $342,990 Active 262 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $342,990 Active 261 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $342,990 Active 260 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $342,990 Active 259 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $342,990 Active 258 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $342,990 Active 257 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $342,990 Active 256 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $342,990 Active 255 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $342,990 Active 254 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $342,990 Active 253 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $342,990 Active 252 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $342,990 Active 251 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $342,990 Active 250 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $342,990 Active 249 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $342,990 Active 248 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $342,990 Active 247 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $342,990 Active 246 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $342,990 Active 245 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $342,990 Active 244 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $342,990 Active 243 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $342,990 Active 242 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $342,990 Active 241 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $342,990 Active 240 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $342,990 Active 239 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $342,990 Active 238 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $342,990 Active 237 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $342,990 Active 236 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $342,990 Active 235 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $342,990 Active 234 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $342,990 Active 233 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $342,990 Active 232 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $342,990 Active 231 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,565
• − Property taxes: −$5,775
• − Insurance: −$2,722
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,778
• − Management: −$2,778
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$12,091
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,902
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Houston, TX, offers a spacious two-story design with modern amenities and a fresh exterior. It is ideal for families and investors seeking a move-in-ready property with high resale and rental potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Fresh bathrooms can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Listed $342,990 Zillow