3021 Meadow St · Lynn Haven, FL 32444

$255,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,938 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2005

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ideally located in The Hammocks of Lynn Haven. This townhome is 1,938 sq. ft. has 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, 1 car garage, enclosed tiled Florida sunroom, large bonus/loft area and is just minutes from Mosley High School and 20 minutes from Tyndall AFB. Home is centrally located and close to shopping, restaurants and the areas best schools. * All measurements are approximate *

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present; Community pool access

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with space for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Cable connected
• Home design: Multi-family zoning
• Exterior features: Community pool; In-ground community pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the second level; approx. 12 x 11 and 14 x 11)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom
• Interior features: Luxury vinyl plank flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,280 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.67%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-24,825
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,725
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32444

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,383 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,932/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,031

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3209 Pleasant Hill Rd Lynn Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2376	$2,995	$1.26	20d	1	0.35mi
2305 Minnesota Ave Lynn Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1692	$1,950	$1.15	13d	1	0.79mi
1713 Jakes Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1576	$2,250	$1.43	20d	1	0.98mi
108 Baldwin Rowe Cir Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,350	$1.47	20d	1	0.99mi
3126 Wood Valley Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1922	$2,800	$1.46	20d	1	1.06mi
2416 Camryns Xing Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,100	$1.12	20d	1	1.06mi
3502 Jenks Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1176	$1,850	$1.57	13d	24	1.23mi
2950 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1199	$1,725	$1.44	20d	6	1.25mi
2870 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1230	$1,770	$1.44	20d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $255,000 Active
3. 2024-01-31
   soldstatus $275,000
4. 2024-01-30
   soldstatus $275,000 Closed 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Ideally located in The Hammocks of Lynn Haven. This townhome is 1,938 sq. ft. has 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, 1 car garage, enclosed tiled Florida sunroom, large bonus/loft area and is just minutes from Mosley High School and 20 minutes from Tyndall AFB. Home is centrally located and close to shopping, restaurants and the areas best schools. * All measurements are approximate *

5. 2024-01-23
   status Pending 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Ideally located in The Hammocks of Lynn Haven. This townhome is 1,938 sq. ft. has 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, 1 car garage, enclosed tiled Florida sunroom, large bonus/loft area and is just minutes from Mosley High School and 20 minutes from Tyndall AFB. Home is centrally located and close to shopping, restaurants and the areas best schools. * All measurements are approximate *

6. 2023-12-22
   price $299,000 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Ideally located in The Hammocks of Lynn Haven. This townhome is 1,938 sq. ft. has 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, 1 car garage, enclosed tiled Florida sunroom, large bonus/loft area and is just minutes from Mosley High School and 20 minutes from Tyndall AFB. Home is centrally located and close to shopping, restaurants and the areas best schools. * All measurements are approximate *

7. 2023-12-11
   price $330,000 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Ideally located in The Hammocks of Lynn Haven. This townhome is 1,938 sq. ft. has 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, 1 car garage, enclosed tiled Florida sunroom, large bonus/loft area and is just minutes from Mosley High School and 20 minutes from Tyndall AFB. Home is centrally located and close to shopping, restaurants and the areas best schools. * All measurements are approximate *

8. 2023-11-02
   listed $345,000 Active 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Ideally located in The Hammocks of Lynn Haven. This townhome is 1,938 sq. ft. has 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, 1 car garage, enclosed tiled Florida sunroom, large bonus/loft area and is just minutes from Mosley High School and 20 minutes from Tyndall AFB. Home is centrally located and close to shopping, restaurants and the areas best schools. * All measurements are approximate *

9. 2021-12-14
   historical
10. 2019-07-26
    soldstatus $228,500
11. 2019-07-26
    soldstatus $228,500
12. 2019-05-27
    listed $228,500
13. 2018-05-16
    soldstatus $197,000
14. 2018-05-15
    soldstatus $197,000
15. 2018-04-10
    listed $200,000
16. 2014-07-07
    listed $173,000
17. 2005-08-05
    soldstatus $174,259
18. 2004-11-30
    listed $174,259

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,932 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$185/yr (+$15/mo · 9.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$1,932
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,287
• − Management: −$2,287
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$890
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$214
• After-tax cash flow: $3,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynn Haven, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 21,459
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,459
• Household income: $83,160
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 430.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.08%
• Current HPI: 263.5418
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+46.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $255,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-30 Sold (MLS) $275,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-01-23 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2023-12-22 Price Changed $299,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-12-11 Price Changed $330,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-11-02 Listed $345,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2019-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $228,500 Public Records
• 2019-07-26 Sold (MLS) $228,500 CPARMLS
• 2019-05-27 Listed $228,500 CPARMLS
• 2018-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $197,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-15 Sold (MLS) $197,000 CPARMLS
• 2018-04-10 Listed $200,000 CPARMLS
• 2014-07-07 Listed $173,000 CPARMLS
• 2005-08-05 Sold (MLS) $174,259 CPARMLS
• 2004-11-30 Listed $174,259 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,932 · -50.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.