861 Doctor's Creek Rd NE · Ludowici, GA 31316

$296,800

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,065 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 0.52 ac lot Est $289k · at est. $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to our new Bagley plan – a stunning residence featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms located in Doctor's Creek, designed with versatile spaces to accommodate any lifestyle. Enter through a welcoming foyer that offers clear sightlines to the flex room, ideal for a home office or additional living space. As you proceed down the hallway, you'll discover a spacious family room. The family room seamlessly connects to the kitchen, which boasts a corner pantry and a breakfast bar, ensuring the cook remains part of the action. Upstairs, three bedrooms with ample closet space share a conveniently located hall bathroom. The primary suite features a luxurious bathroom equipped with a gar

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Corner pantry
• Flex room

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• CORNER PANTRY
• BREAKFAST BAR
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $45 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Two covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Underground utilities; Septic tank; Electric on property
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Under construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built recently (under construction)
• Exterior features: Landscaped lot; Irrigation equipment; Paved road access; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $297k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 412 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $245,869 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,100
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
535 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,065 (0%)	4mo	$288,625	$140	93
509 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,002 (-3%)	4mo	$299,775	$150	88
590 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,151 (+4%)	2mo	$298,475	$139	87
665 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,926 (-7%)	1mo	$320,910	$167	85
522 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,254 (+9%)	3mo	$315,350	$140	78
627 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,810 (-12%)	2mo	$282,750	$156	76
609 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.03mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+9%)	2mo	$310,875	$138	74
591 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,810 (-12%)	3mo	$281,850	$156	73
10 Rimes Ave Ave SE	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,072 (+0%)	1mo	$293,900	$142	72
506 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.09mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+9%)	3mo	$309,250	$137	71
564 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.09mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+9%)	3mo	$308,750	$137	71
52 Pintail Ct NE	0.29mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+9%)	7mo	$306,710	$136	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,869
• Equity at exit: $103,778

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $44,622
• Equity at exit: $139,831

Cash invested: $83,104 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,459 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,556
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,452/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,653

Max offer price $274,552

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $-51	+0% $-154	+5% $-256	+10% $-359
Rent	-10% $-348	-5% $-251	+0% $-154	+5% $-57	+10% $40
Rate	-1.0pp $-4	-0.5pp $-78	base $-154	+0.5pp $-231	+1.0pp $-309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,200
• Closing costs: $8,904
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Clark St Ludowici, GA	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,995	$1.33	45d	1	0.99mi
59 Forest St NE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $296,800 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $296,800 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $296,800 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $296,800 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $296,800 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $296,800 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $296,800 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $296,800 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $296,800 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on marketlisting id $296,800 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $296,800 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $296,800 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,625
• − Property taxes: −$4,452
• − Insurance: −$1,484
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,360
• − Management: −$2,360
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$8,634
• Taxable loss: −$6,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,668
• After-tax cash flow: $-177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with a good exterior and landscaping. Painting the exterior siding and making interior updates would significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can make the home more attractive and increase its value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can make the home more attractive and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $296,800 HABR