320 N 34th Dr · Show Low, AZ 85901

$749,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,259 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 2000 0.27 ac lot $230/sqft · 10% below area Est $832k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Golf course living with space for everyone! This 3,200+ sq ft home has 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths plus half bath in the garage, & a desirable layout. The main level features open-concept living area with soaring ceilings & abundant natural light, along with the primary suite with walk-in closet, dual vanities, jetted tub, & separate shower. A second bedroom, full bath, & large laundry room are also on the main level. Upstairs includes three additional bedrooms, two with a Jack-&-Jill bath & a fifth bedroom with ensuite & attached bonus room--ideal for an office, nursery, or storage. Large 3 car garage! The exterior has a screened deck, fenced yard, tall pines, & no HOA. A 15x24 detached building with mini split offers great potential for a game room, man cave, she-shack or modify into a guest

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL VANITIES
• JETTED TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $749k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $993 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $700k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $682k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($682k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $318k; list at $749k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $681,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.68%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $832,465
• List price: $749,000
• Delta: -10.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3401 W Hansen --	0.35mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,245 (-0%)	10mo	$560,000	$173	68
710 N 39th Dr	0.43mi	5/3.5	3,422 (+5%)	10mo	$830,000	$243	63
3031 W Alpine Ridge Rd	0.54mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,038 (-7%)	2mo	$885,000	$291	54
3591 W Fairway Ct	0.64mi	5/3.0	3,093 (-5%)	8mo	$839,333	$271	53
101 S Falling Leaf Rd	0.51mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,081 (-6%)	17mo	$1,150,000	$373	46
2400 W Bench Rd	0.56mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,867 (-12%)	4mo	$1,000,000	$349	44
4270 W Sugar Pine Loop	0.68mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,372 (+4%)	16mo	$1,125,000	$334	43
4191 W Hawthorn Rd	0.62mi	5/4.0	3,495 (+7%)	21mo	$1,140,000	$326	39
20 S Golden Rod Ln	0.69mi	5/4.0	2,954 (-9%)	18mo	$985,000	$333	35
1260 N 36th Dr	0.67mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,984 (-8%)	21mo	$390,000	$131	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-58,424
• Equity at exit: $111,678

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $29,381
• Equity at exit: $64,760

Cash invested: $209,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,928
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,567/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,470
• Net cashflow: $993

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,743

Max offer price $749,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,250
• Closing costs: $22,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4500 W Hackberry Ln #161 Show Low, AZ	4.0	3.5	2761	$7,000	$2.54	43d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $749,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $749,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $749,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $749,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $749,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $749,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $749,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $749,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $749,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $749,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $749,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $749,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $749,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $749,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $749,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $749,000 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-03-04
    listed $799,000 Active 832-char remark

    Show marketing remark (832 chars)

    Golf course living with space for everyone! This 3,200+ sq ft home has 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths plus half bath in the garage, & a desirable layout. The main level features open-concept living area with soaring ceilings & abundant natural light, along with the primary suite with walk-in closet, dual vanities, jetted tub, & separate shower. A second bedroom, full bath, & large laundry room are also on the main level. Upstairs includes three additional bedrooms, two with a Jack-&-Jill bath & a fifth bedroom with ensuite & attached bonus room--ideal for an office, nursery, or storage. Large 3 car garage! The exterior has a screened deck, fenced yard, tall pines, & no HOA. A 15x24 detached building with mini split offers great potential for a game room, man cave, she-shack or modify into a guest

18. 2022-04-05
    price $889,000
19. 2013-10-30
    soldstatus $318,000
20. 2013-10-30
    soldstatus $318,000
21. 1995-11-13
    soldstatus $36,000
22. 1994-09-29
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,567 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,943 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,376/yr (+$115/mo · 38.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $84,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,956
• − Property taxes: −$3,567
• − Insurance: −$3,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,720
• − Management: −$6,720
• − Depreciation: −$21,789
• Taxable loss: −$497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$119
• After-tax cash flow: $12,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2396.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $799,000 WMMLS
• 2022-04-05 Price Changed $889,000 WMMLS
• 2013-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $318,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-30 Sold (MLS) $318,000 WMMLS
• 1995-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,567 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.