37 Monhagen Ave · Middletown, NY 10940

$450,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,151 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1890 0.40 ac lot Est $391k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Here we have a two story home on a nearly half acre lot in the City of Middletown. The building is 2151 square feet, with five bedrooms and three full baths. It was most recently used as a three unit, but per city code, going forward it will be a two unit. There is large driveway with ample parking for four plus vehicles, a rear deck, and a large level backyard. The home will need extensive repairs and updates, but well worth the investment for the handy buyer.

Key facts

• Three unit property
• Two family residence
• Half acre lot

Tags

• MULTI FAMILY PROPERTY
• HALF ACRE LOT
• INCOME PRODUCING POTENTIAL
• THREE UNIT PROPERTY
• TWO FAMILY RESIDENCE
• FIRST FLOOR RENOVATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; Off-street parking; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public sewer; Trash collection (public)
• Home design: Triplex
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Partial basement
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: One 4-bedroom unit
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $207/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $445k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $445k (1.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.3% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-.
• Middletown City School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Maple Hill Elementary School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,569 of 2,108 statewide, top 75%, 1,012 students, 80% FRL); Monhagen Middle School (math 16% / reading 39%, grade F, #576 of 729 statewide, top 79%, 817 students, 75% FRL); Middletown High School (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 2,523 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,454/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 1846% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 157% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $450k implies a 923% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $445,400 (1.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.94%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $391,482
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 W Main St	0.26mi	6/4.0 (+1)	2,074 (-4%)	3mo	$580,000	$280	70
48 Mulberry St	0.15mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,076 (-4%)	16mo	$340,000	$164	65
145 W Main St	0.27mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,162 (+0%)	22mo	$355,000	$164	59
2 Mountain Ave	0.24mi	5/2.0	2,447 (+14%)	7mo	$445,000	$182	56
19 Academy Ave	0.57mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,230 (+4%)	9mo	$575,000	$258	55
20 California Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (-6%)	13mo	$350,000	$174	54
75 Academy Ave	0.47mi	5/2.0	2,247 (+4%)	22mo	$430,000	$191	48
44 Houston Ave	0.65mi	5/2.0	2,440 (+13%)	4mo	$370,000	$152	40
17 Academy Ave	0.57mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,400 (+12%)	14mo	$620,000	$258	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-22,962
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $121,335
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 16.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,454 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$558 /mo · $6,690/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$935
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,930

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 86%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	—	$4,454
Total (2 units)			$4,454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Mulberry St Middletown, NY	4.0	1.5	1696	$2,800	$1.65	44d	1	0.25mi
128 W Main St Unit 1 Middletown, NY	5.0	3.5	2350	$3,500	$1.49	43d	1	0.29mi
184 Highland Ave Middletown, NY	4.0	2.0	1486	$3,500	$2.36	23d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $450,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $450,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $450,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,690 · $558/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,148 · $596/mo
• Expected delta: +$457/yr (+$38/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$6,690
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,276
• − Management: −$4,276
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,342
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$562
• After-tax cash flow: $5,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3619320
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $54,612
• Composite: 41.52/100
• National rank: #3453
• State rank: #411 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 68,033
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+378.7% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Coming Soon $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-03 Price Changed $165,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-30 Listed $175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-10 Price Changed $36,900 HGMLS
• 2015-08-10 Sold (MLS) $44,000 HGMLS
• 2015-08-10 Price Changed $44,000 HGMLS
• 2015-08-10 Sold (MLS) $44,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-09 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2015-04-10 Listed $36,900 HGMLS
• 2015-04-09 Listed $36,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-22 Sold (MLS) $270,000 HGMLS
• 2006-01-23 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2006-01-23 Price Changed $299,900 HGMLS
• 2005-09-17 Listed $270,000 HGMLS
• 2003-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $113,300 Public Records
• 2003-05-13 Sold (MLS) $113,300 HGMLS
• 2003-02-27 Price Changed $120,000 HGMLS
• 2003-02-27 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2002-11-14 Listed $113,300 HGMLS
• 1998-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1998-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,690 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.