1235 Morgan Dr · Combee Settlement, FL 33801

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1958 7,379 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short sale Approved! Nice property. Inside A/C 2012 and part outside of A/C 2013, Septic Tank 2010. Second Bathroom need to be remodel, must to see it.

Key facts

• 7,379 sq ft lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 47 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family; Zoning: R-2; Lot approximately 0.17 acres (68 x 108); Living area reported as 1,146 sq ft; total building area 1,292 sq ft; Furnished status: Negotiable
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Tax information available separately
• HOA & community: No HOA reported

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security features reported
• Utilities: Public utilities; Sewer: Other; Water source: None reported
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances reported
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No notable interior features reported
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $220k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,283 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-47,452
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-65,248
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,703 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,815/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,873

Max offer price $196,208

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2721 Doyle Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,795	$1.39	23d	1	0.38mi
1452 Ridge Lake Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,700	$1.77	21d	1	0.44mi
2415 Idlewild St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	23d	1	0.51mi
2417 Golfview St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	798	$1,395	$1.75	10d	1	0.61mi
635 Meridian Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,750	$1.45	3d	1	0.80mi
2155 Lone Oak Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,100	$1.41	23d	1	1.05mi
3245 E Main St Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	14d	1	1.14mi
3245 E Main St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	23d	1	1.14mi
2400 Timbercreek Loop W Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1108	$1,910	$1.72	23d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    price $219,900
16. 2026-05-02
    listed $229,900 Active
17. 2021-07-21
    soldstatus $110,296
18. 2016-06-01
    soldstatus $56,000
19. 2016-05-27
    soldstatus $56,000 Sold 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Short sale Approved! Nice property. Inside A/C 2012 and part outside of A/C 2013, Septic Tank 2010. Second Bathroom need to be remodel, must to see it.

20. 2016-05-19
    status Pending 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Short sale Approved! Nice property. Inside A/C 2012 and part outside of A/C 2013, Septic Tank 2010. Second Bathroom need to be remodel, must to see it.

21. 2016-04-13
    price $62,500 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Short sale Approved! Nice property. Inside A/C 2012 and part outside of A/C 2013, Septic Tank 2010. Second Bathroom need to be remodel, must to see it.

22. 2015-11-05
    status Active 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Short sale Approved! Nice property. Inside A/C 2012 and part outside of A/C 2013, Septic Tank 2010. Second Bathroom need to be remodel, must to see it.

23. 2015-11-05
    price $70,000 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Short sale Approved! Nice property. Inside A/C 2012 and part outside of A/C 2013, Septic Tank 2010. Second Bathroom need to be remodel, must to see it.

24. 2015-09-04
    historical 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Short sale Approved! Nice property. Inside A/C 2012 and part outside of A/C 2013, Septic Tank 2010. Second Bathroom need to be remodel, must to see it.

25. 2015-07-31
    price $80,000 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Short sale Approved! Nice property. Inside A/C 2012 and part outside of A/C 2013, Septic Tank 2010. Second Bathroom need to be remodel, must to see it.

26. 2015-02-04
    status Active 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Short sale Approved! Nice property. Inside A/C 2012 and part outside of A/C 2013, Septic Tank 2010. Second Bathroom need to be remodel, must to see it.

27. 2015-02-02
    historical 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Short sale Approved! Nice property. Inside A/C 2012 and part outside of A/C 2013, Septic Tank 2010. Second Bathroom need to be remodel, must to see it.

28. 2014-12-18
    listed $90,500 Active 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Short sale Approved! Nice property. Inside A/C 2012 and part outside of A/C 2013, Septic Tank 2010. Second Bathroom need to be remodel, must to see it.

29. 2006-06-21
    soldstatus $149,900
30. 2006-06-16
    soldstatus $149,900 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Brand new kitchen, tubs/showers, plumbing & electric updated. Shows Great!! New roof, new paint, carpet. 4th bed & 2nd bath just added. Extra parking. Stove to be added before closing. All sizes approx. We have a current appraisal on file.

31. 2006-03-27
    listed $149,900 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Brand new kitchen, tubs/showers, plumbing & electric updated. Shows Great!! New roof, new paint, carpet. 4th bed & 2nd bath just added. Extra parking. Stove to be added before closing. All sizes approx. We have a current appraisal on file.

32. 2005-04-08
    soldstatus $55,777
33. 2005-04-07
    soldstatus $55,800
34. 2005-03-16
    listed $59,900
35. 2004-09-06
    historical
36. 2004-08-09
    listed $83,900
37. 2004-08-06
    historical
38. 2004-03-06
    listed $78,900
39. 2003-02-10
    soldstatus $77,000
40. 2002-11-06
    soldstatus $41,000
41. 1995-01-20
    soldstatus $40,000
42. 1986-10-01
    soldstatus $35,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,815 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,815 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,815
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,635
• − Management: −$1,635
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$5,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,311
• After-tax cash flow: $-298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Combee Settlement

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8672

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Combee Settlement, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+519.4% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $110,296 Public Records
• 2016-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-27 Sold (MLS) $56,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-13 Price Changed $62,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-05 Price Changed $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-31 Price Changed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-18 Listed $90,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $149,900 Public Records
• 2006-06-16 Sold (MLS) $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-27 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-08 Sold (MLS) $55,777 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $55,800 Public Records
• 2005-03-16 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-09 Listed $83,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-06 Listed $78,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2002-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 1995-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,815 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.