351 Thorn Run Rd · Oakland, PA 16025

$49,900

6 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1885 0.60 ac lot $33/sqft · 77% below area ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on 0.6 peaceful acres, this country farmhouse offers a rare opportunity to create your dream rural retreat. Surrounded by rolling farmland and woods, the property boasts stunning, uninterrupted views and the kind of privacy that’s hard to find— with only one neighbor for miles. The home features four generously sized bedrooms and one full bath, with large rooms that reflect its solid, time-tested construction. While the farmhouse is in need of significant repair and is being sold as-is, it offers “great bones” and endless potential for restoration or customization. Adding to its unique charm is a detached stone springhouse, complete with its own fireplace and a second level. This character-filled structure could be transformed into a guest house, studio, or a cozy mother-in-law cottage, making it a standout feature of the property. Whether you’re looking for a renovation project, a quiet homestead, or a scenic escape from the hustle and bustle, this property offers a rare blend of space, privacy, and possibility in a beautiful countryside setting.

Key facts

• Uninterrupted views
• Rolling farmland
• 0.6 acre lot

Tags

• ROLLING FARMLAND
• UNINTERRUPTED VIEWS
• DETACHED STONE SPRINGHOUSE
• COZY MOTHER-IN-LAW COTTAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 5.4% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Butler Area SD (town): math 41% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #181 of 539 in PA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 987 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butler County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $50k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.03%
• DSCR: 3.58
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,371
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -77.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $34,968
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.15×
• Total profit: $85,950
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16025

• Home prices YoY: -27.9%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $802/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $442

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $49,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $49,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-05-03
   price $49,900 1097-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1097 chars)

   Set on 0.6 peaceful acres, this country farmhouse offers a rare opportunity to create your dream rural retreat. Surrounded by rolling farmland and woods, the property boasts stunning, uninterrupted views and the kind of privacy that’s hard to find— with only one neighbor for miles. The home features four generously sized bedrooms and one full bath, with large rooms that reflect its solid, time-tested construction. While the farmhouse is in need of significant repair and is being sold as-is, it offers “great bones” and endless potential for restoration or customization. Adding to its unique charm is a detached stone springhouse, complete with its own fireplace and a second level. This character-filled structure could be transformed into a guest house, studio, or a cozy mother-in-law cottage, making it a standout feature of the property. Whether you’re looking for a renovation project, a quiet homestead, or a scenic escape from the hustle and bustle, this property offers a rare blend of space, privacy, and possibility in a beautiful countryside setting.

7. 2026-04-13
   listed $67,500 Active 1097-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1097 chars)

   Set on 0.6 peaceful acres, this country farmhouse offers a rare opportunity to create your dream rural retreat. Surrounded by rolling farmland and woods, the property boasts stunning, uninterrupted views and the kind of privacy that’s hard to find— with only one neighbor for miles. The home features four generously sized bedrooms and one full bath, with large rooms that reflect its solid, time-tested construction. While the farmhouse is in need of significant repair and is being sold as-is, it offers “great bones” and endless potential for restoration or customization. Adding to its unique charm is a detached stone springhouse, complete with its own fireplace and a second level. This character-filled structure could be transformed into a guest house, studio, or a cozy mother-in-law cottage, making it a standout feature of the property. Whether you’re looking for a renovation project, a quiet homestead, or a scenic escape from the hustle and bustle, this property offers a rare blend of space, privacy, and possibility in a beautiful countryside setting.

8. 2011-06-17
   soldstatus $18,000 317-char remark

   Show marketing remark (317 chars)

   Agents call Floor Agent M-F for access & view attachments for instructions & required forms. Buyers pay all transf tax permits & tests. No survey so lot size is estimated. EDM to be certified to ERA upon acceptance. Property is eligible under the First Look program thru 1/21/11.. .see attachements.

9. 2011-06-17
   price $29,900 317-char remark

   Show marketing remark (317 chars)

   Agents call Floor Agent M-F for access & view attachments for instructions & required forms. Buyers pay all transf tax permits & tests. No survey so lot size is estimated. EDM to be certified to ERA upon acceptance. Property is eligible under the First Look program thru 1/21/11.. .see attachements.

10. 2011-01-06
    listed $18,000 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Agents call Floor Agent M-F for access & view attachments for instructions & required forms. Buyers pay all transf tax permits & tests. No survey so lot size is estimated. EDM to be certified to ERA upon acceptance. Property is eligible under the First Look program thru 1/21/11.. .see attachements.

11. 2002-04-30
    soldstatus $89,900
12. 2001-07-09
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $802 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $802 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$802
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,246
• − Management: −$1,246
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $7,779
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,867
• After-tax cash flow: $6,241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Butler Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4204590
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,348
• Composite: 42.65/100
• National rank: #3180
• State rank: #181 of 539 in PA

Livability — Oakland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,880

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 190,777 people
• By 2030: 191,476 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 189,474 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 182,050 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 159,526 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 129,028 · -32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Romanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.5% · R 65.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+37.5 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.57%
• Current HPI: 143.2355
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-44.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $49,900 West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $67,500 West Penn MLS
• 2011-06-17 Price Changed $29,900 West Penn MLS
• 2011-06-17 Sold (MLS) $18,000 West Penn MLS
• 2011-01-06 Listed $18,000 West Penn MLS
• 2002-04-30 Sold (MLS) $89,900 West Penn MLS
• 2001-07-09 Listed $89,900 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $802 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.