1017 Hillcrest Rd · Middle Valley, TN 37343

$179,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,229 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1974 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 4-bed, 2.5-bath home offering comfort with a large backyard and garage. no through-traffic, with power and water on and no known electrical or plumbing issues.

Key facts

• No through traffic
• Large backyard
• Power and water on

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• NO THROUGH TRAFFIC
• POWER AND WATER ON
• NO KNOWN ELECTRICAL ISSUES
• NO KNOWN PLUMBING ISSUES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing broker: List With Freedom

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential property; Subdivision: Hillcrest Ests
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Metal roof; Built using house structure type
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup (information not specified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $616 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.9% in Middle Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#127 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Middle Valley Elementary (math 53% / reading 43%, grade D, #138 of 952 statewide, top 14%, 782 students, 0% FRL); Hixson Middle School (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #162 of 333 statewide, top 50%, 607 students, 0% FRL); Hixson High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #104 of 332 statewide, top 33%, 935 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $180k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,201 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.68%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $8,759
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $52,743
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37343

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 459
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,164 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $904/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,384

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
151 Integra Vistas Dr Hixson, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$1,883	$1.84	13d	36	0.73mi
931 Old Lower Mill Rd Hixson, TN	3.0	2.5	1375	$2,195	$1.60	13d	1	1.32mi
902 Old Lower Mill Rd Hixson, TN	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,900	$1.60	13d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $179,900 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $179,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $179,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $179,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $189,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-05-18
   price $189,900
8. 2026-05-07
   listed $200,000 Active
9. 1996-11-20
   soldstatus $58,500
10. 1996-06-03
    listed $70,000
11. 1995-02-28
    soldstatus $60,000
12. 1993-02-04
    soldstatus $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $904 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,277 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$374/yr (+$31/mo · 41.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,973
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$904
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,078
• − Management: −$2,078
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $4,704
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,129
• After-tax cash flow: $6,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

Livability — Middle Valley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #11835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle Valley, TN
• County: Hamilton County · 312,777 people
• City population: 44,572
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 45,101
• Household income: $82,227
• Rent vs Own: 24.0% rent · 76.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1152.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -324.61%
• Current HPI: 260.3778
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+283.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $189,900 GCAR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $200,000 GCAR
• 1996-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records
• 1996-06-03 Listed $70,000 RCAOR
• 1995-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1993-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $904 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.