15579 W Vista Grande Ln · Surprise, AZ 85374

$350,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,396 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1997 6,641 sqft lot $251/sqft · at area comps Est $360k · at est. $160/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Worry free living! 2yr old HVAC, 5 yr old roof. This Willow plan, has an extra spacious room for flexibility! Plantation shutters throughout, stainless steel & granite in the kitchen, this 2 bedroom 2 bath home offers 2 living areas too. In addition you will find an expanded patio, covered and uncovered areas for enjoying the south facing backyard. Plus all patio furniture conveys with home. Inside laundry room & all appliances are included. You will appreciate the warmth of this well loved home, with an excellent location. Close to the Adobe Center & amenities & easy access to Grand Ave for restaurants, shopping, medical & all that the Valley of the Sun has to offer. Priced to allow room in buyer's budget for any paint or flooring changes they may wan

Key facts

• Hvac replaced
• Plantation shutters
• Extra room

Tags

• HVAC REPLACED
• ROOF REPLACED
• EXTRA ROOM
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• STAINLESS STEEL IN KITCHEN
• GRANITE IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-563/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingswood Elementary School (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 791 students, 59% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 406 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $288,030 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,700
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -2.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15505 W Coral Pointe Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-7%)	2mo	$319,500	$246	83
20026 N Siesta Rock Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-7%)	2mo	$331,000	$255	74
15943 W Wildflower Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,414 (+1%)	4mo	$383,000	$271	72
15862 W Wildflower Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,434 (+3%)	4mo	$369,000	$257	71
16023 W Wildflower Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,414 (+1%)	2mo	$340,000	$240	69
15303 W Kidneywood Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,427 (+2%)	2mo	$359,000	$252	69
16045 W Autumn Sage Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,439 (+3%)	3mo	$324,900	$226	59
15818 W Lahlum Ln	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,495 (+7%)	2mo	$390,000	$261	58
20157 N Saguaro Ct	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,223 (-12%)	4mo	$379,900	$311	54
16049 W Quail Creek Ln	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,255 (-10%)	0mo	$344,000	$274	53
15813 W Alpine Ridge Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,495 (+7%)	3mo	$365,000	$244	52
19977 N Jennings Way	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,282 (-8%)	4mo	$355,000	$277	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-67,775
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-94,154
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,880 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,173/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,940

Max offer price $341,719

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $52	+0% $-47	+5% $-146	+10% $-245
Rent	-10% $-274	-5% $-161	+0% $-47	+5% $67	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $42	base $-47	+0.5pp $-138	+1.0pp $-230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15619 W Vista Grande Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1370	$3,500	$2.55	46d	1	0.06mi
15628 W Hidden Creek Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1627	$3,600	$2.21	46d	1	0.08mi
20054 N Painted Sky Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1598	$3,200	$2.00	26d	1	0.20mi
15448 W Moonlight Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1262	$4,200	$3.33	46d	1	0.42mi
15913 W Clearwater Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1546	$3,000	$1.94	46d	1	0.46mi
15707 W Cimarron Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1183	$1,745	$1.48	24d	1	0.53mi
16149 W Quail Creek Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	46d	1	0.75mi
16115 W Acacia Ct Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.5	1099	$1,700	$1.55	46d	1	0.80mi
16171 W Wildflower Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1278	$3,200	$2.50	20d	1	0.83mi
15033 W Home Run Dr Unit 1545708P Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,419	$1.73	17d	1	0.84mi
15104 W Cactus Ridge Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1512	$3,850	$2.55	46d	1	0.88mi
15082 W Cactus Ridge Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1645	$3,500	$2.13	46d	1	0.91mi
15042 W Cactus Ridge Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,800	$1.98	46d	1	0.96mi
16215 W Desert Winds Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1183	$2,800	$2.37	46d	1	1.06mi
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,388	$3.12	46d	3	1.11mi
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,450	$3.20	0d	2	1.11mi
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,230	$2.91	1d	3	1.11mi
15438 W Domingo Ln Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1438	$1,950	$1.36	1d	1	1.22mi
20813 N 147th Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1733	$4,500	$2.60	17d	1	1.29mi
18614 N Summerbreeze Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	20d	1	1.29mi
16426 W Boulder Vista Dr Unit 1546454P Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1625	$4,436	$2.73	17d	1	1.29mi
21531 N Black Bear Lodge Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,595	$0.86	19d	1	1.32mi
17838 N Navarro Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,800	$2.45	46d	1	1.42mi
21601 N 147th Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1269	$2,695	$2.12	19d	1	1.45mi
17783 N El Dorado Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1647	$2,100	$1.28	46d	1	1.47mi
15866 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$3,200	$2.26	46d	1	1.47mi
17923 N Reno Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,695	$1.32	3d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   Worry free living! 2yr old HVAC, 5 yr old roof. This Willow plan, has an extra spacious room for flexibility! Plantation shutters throughout, stainless steel & granite in the kitchen, this 2 bedroom 2 bath home offers 2 living areas too. In addition you will find an expanded patio, covered and uncovered areas for enjoying the south facing backyard. Plus all patio furniture conveys with home. Inside laundry room & all appliances are included. You will appreciate the warmth of this well loved home, with an excellent location. Close to the Adobe Center & amenities & easy access to Grand Ave for restaurants, shopping, medical & all that the Valley of the Sun has to offer. Priced to allow room in buyer's budget for any paint or flooring changes they may wan

2. 2026-03-26
   listed $350,000 Active 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   Worry free living! 2yr old HVAC, 5 yr old roof. This Willow plan, has an extra spacious room for flexibility! Plantation shutters throughout, stainless steel & granite in the kitchen, this 2 bedroom 2 bath home offers 2 living areas too. In addition you will find an expanded patio, covered and uncovered areas for enjoying the south facing backyard. Plus all patio furniture conveys with home. Inside laundry room & all appliances are included. You will appreciate the warmth of this well loved home, with an excellent location. Close to the Adobe Center & amenities & easy access to Grand Ave for restaurants, shopping, medical & all that the Valley of the Sun has to offer. Priced to allow room in buyer's budget for any paint or flooring changes they may wan

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,310 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$137/yr (+$11/mo · 6.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,173
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,765
• − Management: −$2,765
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$6,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,583
• After-tax cash flow: $1,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $350,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,173 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.