3490 Espo Dr · Willow Oak, FL 33860

$229,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1977 1.03 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to 3490 Espo Drive in the peaceful countryside of Mulberry — a beautifully maintained four-bedroom, two-bathroom home situated on an expansive 1.03-acre lot offering the perfect blend of privacy, space, and convenience. Surrounded by mature oak trees that provide incredible shade and a picturesque setting, this property delivers the relaxed Florida lifestyle while still being just a short drive from Lakeland shopping, dining, and entertainment. As you enter the home, you’ll immediately notice the updated luxury vinyl plank flooring flowing throughout the interior along with fresh interior paint, creating a clean and rustic feel thr

Key facts

• Mature oak trees
• Storage shed
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• EXPANSIVE 1.03-ACRE LOT
• MATURE OAK TREES
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• OVERSIZED FENCED BACKYARD
• CUSTOM-BUILT FIRE PIT AREA
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is on approximately 1.03 acres (dimensions ~150 x 300); Located on a single parcel with 1 well and 1 septic; Zoned RC; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Southeast facing
• Construction: Metal roof; Other construction materials; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; Fire pit on the property
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#579 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $190k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.26%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-19,164
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,349
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33860

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,373 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,849/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,948

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $466	-5% $401	+0% $336	+5% $271	+10% $206
Rent	-10% $149	-5% $242	+0% $336	+5% $430	+10% $524
Rate	-1.0pp $452	-0.5pp $395	base $336	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5760 Bailey Rd Mulberry, FL	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,805	$1.40	24d	1	1.43mi
3487 Imperial Manor Way Mulberry, FL	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,346	$1.29	4d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $229,900 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $229,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $239,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $239,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $239,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $239,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $239,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-05-28
    listed $239,900 Active
11. 2023-01-26
    soldstatus $190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,849 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,849 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$2,849
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
• − Management: −$2,278
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $358
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$86
• After-tax cash flow: $3,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Willow Oak

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #579
• US rank: #11029

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Oak, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,892
• Household income: $65,710
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.08%
• Current HPI: 349.7266
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+26.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+24.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,849 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.