242 Club Park Ct · East Tawakoni, TX 75472

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1970 0.48 ac lot $119/sqft · 28% below area Est $237k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming two-story frame home sits near the lake on a peaceful cul-de-sac, offering a perfect blend of comfort and privacy. A spacious wrap-around porch invites you to relax and enjoy the surrounding views, while the fenced yard provides room for pets, gardening, or outdoor gatherings. Inside, the home features a warm and welcoming layout ideal for everyday living or weekend retreats. With its desirable location and inviting outdoor spaces, this property delivers the ideal lakeside lifestyle.

Key facts

• Lakeside lifestyle
• Fenced yard
• Peaceful cul-de-sac

Tags

• WRAP-AROUND PORCH
• FENCED YARD
• PEACEFUL CUL-DE-SAC
• LAKESIDE LIFESTYLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.5% in East Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,455 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Rains ISD (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #697 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 21 units permitted in Rains County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,450 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.27%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,163
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -28.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
949 Little Oaks Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+5%)	5mo	$520,000	$347	79
175 Harris Harbor Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-1%)	1mo	$279,000	$197	78
608 Oak Leaf Trl	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+5%)	16mo	$285,000	$190	76
450 Oak Leaf Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-1%)	16mo	$139,900	$99	73
488 Briggs Blvd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,400 (-2%)	9mo	$329,000	$235	72
130 Pierson Xing	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+5%)	1mo	$269,900	$180	69
950 Little Oaks Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,544 (+8%)	10mo	$345,000	$223	67
161 Harris Harbor Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,391 (-2%)	12mo	$275,000	$198	66
190 Harris Harbor Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+0%)	22mo	$265,000	$186	62
1049 E State Highway 276	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+7%)	11mo	$359,000	$236	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,161
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $15,761
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75472

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,454/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,477

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
743 Oak Leaf Trl Point, TX	3.0	1.0	1215	$1,850	$1.52	1d	1	0.13mi
469 Rs County Road 1605 Unit 1605 Point, TX	2.0	1.5	900	$1,750	$1.94	44d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on marketlisting id $170,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 190 DOM
15. 2025-11-21
    historical
16. 2025-11-21
    status Active
17. 2025-11-19
    listed $170,000 Active 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    This charming two-story frame home sits near the lake on a peaceful cul-de-sac, offering a perfect blend of comfort and privacy. A spacious wrap-around porch invites you to relax and enjoy the surrounding views, while the fenced yard provides room for pets, gardening, or outdoor gatherings. Inside, the home features a warm and welcoming layout ideal for everyday living or weekend retreats. With its desirable location and inviting outdoor spaces, this property delivers the ideal lakeside lifestyle.

18. 2025-09-02
    price $170,000
19. 2025-08-28
    listed $200,000 Active
20. 2025-07-16
    historical
21. 2025-04-16
    listed $225,000 Active
22. 2025-04-15
    historical
23. 2025-03-22
    price $225,000
24. 2025-01-15
    listed $275,000 Active
25. 2018-09-24
    soldstatus
26. 2018-04-06
    listed $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,454 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$657/yr (+$55/mo · 26.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,454
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $795
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$191
• After-tax cash flow: $3,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rains ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836360
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,836
• Composite: 22.46/100
• National rank: #8106
• State rank: #697 of 826 in TX

Livability — East Tawakoni

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1455
• US rank: #24873

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Tawakoni, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,290

Population outlook (Rains County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,516 people
• By 2030: 11,610 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 11,622 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 11,329 · -1.6%
• By 2075: 10,390 · -9.8%
• By 2100: 8,809 · -23.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Rains

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.9) · D 13.3% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.4pp toward R · 2008: -49.5pp · 2024: -72.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.9 2020: R+71.2 2016: R+71.3 2012: R+61.8 2008: R+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.57%
• Current HPI: 153.54
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+117.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-21 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-16 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-15 Listed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2018-09-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-04-06 Listed $78,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,454 · +17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.