10 Royal Rd · Springfield, IL 62702

$175,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,441 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 1965 9,600 sqft lot $121/sqft · 14% below area Est $203k · 14% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This classic, well laid-out ranch sits in a prime west Springfield location, minutes from everything yet tucked on a quiet no-through traffic street. The main level offers both a formal living room & a comfortable family room with fireplace, plus a large eat-in kitchen that anchors everyday living effortlessly. Stainless appliances pair with loads of quality cabinetry & counter space in a kitchen that’s as practical as it is inviting. A huge screened porch extends the living space outdoors, creating an easy flow for entertaining or relaxing during any season. The primary bedroom includes its own en suite half bath, while laundry is conveniently located just off the kitchen

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Huge screened porch
• 9,600 sq ft lot

Tags

• WEST SPRINGFIELD LOCATION
• HUGE SCREENED PORCH
• PARK-LIKE FENCED YARD
• ATTACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-814/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jane Addams Elem School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,517 of 2,056 statewide, top 78%, 290 students, 0% FRL); U S Grant Middle School (math 6% / reading 15%, grade F, #580 of 665 statewide, top 88%, 529 students, 0% FRL); Lanphier High School (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #501 of 693 statewide, top 73%, 1,058 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 72% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $175k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $150,037 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.66%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,421
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -13.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Mesa Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,382 (-4%)	8mo	$200,000	$145	82
59 Mesa Dr	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,401 (-3%)	20mo	$177,500	$127	74
25 Royal Rd	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,600 (+11%)	7mo	$187,400	$117	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-29,628
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-18,347
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62702

• Home prices YoY: -34.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,586

Max offer price $163,015

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31	-5% $-18	+0% $-68	+5% $-117	+10% $-167
Rent	-10% $-186	-5% $-127	+0% $-68	+5% $-9	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-23	base $-68	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $175,000 Pending 99 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $175,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-05-14
   status Active
4. 2026-05-14
   historical
5. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
6. 2026-02-11
   price
7. 2026-01-15
   price
8. 2025-12-18
   price
9. 2025-12-17
   listed Active
10. 2013-11-21
    soldstatus $98,000
11. 2013-11-19
    soldstatus $98,000
12. 2013-09-30
    listed $102,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,150 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,561 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$411/yr (+$34/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,795
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$911
• After-tax cash flow: $97/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 31,033
• Household income: $51,136
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1230.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.98%
• Current HPI: 149.1926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.95%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 2013-11-19 Sold (MLS) $98,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-30 Listed $102,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,150 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.