12363 Cedar Knoll Ct · Shelby, MI 48315

$62,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 15 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition Est $60k · at est. ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent community with great neighbors that look out for each other! Brand spanking new furnace & central air conditioning. Community Pool. Newer roof (3 yrs), new skirting with extra insulation (2 yrs), new porch and ramp. Hot water heater. Updated bathroom, new flooring, ceiling fans, kitchen faucet. Newer Appliances including stove, microwave, washer, (dryer and dishwasher; 1 year)

Key facts

• New furnace
• Community pool
• Newer roof

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• NEW FURNACE
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• NEWER ROOF
• NEW INSULATED SKIRTING
• NEWLY CONSTRUCTED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Community amenities include a pool; Located in SHELBY WEST MOBILE HOME PARK

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level
• Construction: Above-grade finished area approximately 1,500; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Community pool; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central cooling with ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Electric water heater; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.6% vs local median 3.4% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $429 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $61,070 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.62%
• DSCR: 4.23
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $60,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12363 Cedar Knoll Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,500 (0%)	0mo	$60,000	$40	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $56,896
• Equity at exit: $9,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.82×
• Total profit: $135,822
• Equity at exit: $5,361

Cash invested: $17,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48315

• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$78 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $1,051

Break-even live

Break-even rent $542

Max offer price $62,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,093	-5% $1,072	+0% $1,051	+5% $1,029	+10% $1,008
Rent	-10% $903	-5% $977	+0% $1,051	+5% $1,125	+10% $1,199
Rate	-1.0pp $1,082	-0.5pp $1,066	base $1,051	+0.5pp $1,035	+1.0pp $1,018

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,500
• Closing costs: $1,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13670 Silver Birch Cir Shelby Township, MI	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	0.65mi
49144 W Woods Dr Shelby Township, MI	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,900	$1.53	25d	1	0.67mi
13955 Bronte Dr N Shelby Township, MI	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,799	$1.30	11d	1	1.10mi
8420 Munrovia St Shelby Township, MI	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,950	$1.22	45d	1	1.19mi
8254 Mary Ann Ave Unit 1032360P Shelby Township, MI	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1517	$10,652	$7.02	0d	2	1.29mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $62,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $62,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $62,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $62,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $62,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $62,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $62,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $62,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $62,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Excellent community with great neighbors that look out for each other! Brand spanking new furnace & central air conditioning. Community Pool. Newer roof (3 yrs), new skirting with extra insulation (2 yrs), new porch and ramp. Hot water heater. Updated bathroom, new flooring, ceiling fans, kitchen faucet. Newer Appliances including stove, microwave, washer, (dryer and dishwasher; 1 year)

15. 2026-05-16
    status Back on Market 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Excellent community with great neighbors that look out for each other! Brand spanking new furnace & central air conditioning. Community Pool. Newer roof (3 yrs), new skirting with extra insulation (2 yrs), new porch and ramp. Hot water heater. Updated bathroom, new flooring, ceiling fans, kitchen faucet. Newer Appliances including stove, microwave, washer, (dryer and dishwasher; 1 year)

16. 2026-05-13
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Excellent community with great neighbors that look out for each other! Brand spanking new furnace & central air conditioning. Community Pool. Newer roof (3 yrs), new skirting with extra insulation (2 yrs), new porch and ramp. Hot water heater. Updated bathroom, new flooring, ceiling fans, kitchen faucet. Newer Appliances including stove, microwave, washer, (dryer and dishwasher; 1 year)

17. 2026-05-13
    historical Accepting Backup Offers 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Excellent community with great neighbors that look out for each other! Brand spanking new furnace & central air conditioning. Community Pool. Newer roof (3 yrs), new skirting with extra insulation (2 yrs), new porch and ramp. Hot water heater. Updated bathroom, new flooring, ceiling fans, kitchen faucet. Newer Appliances including stove, microwave, washer, (dryer and dishwasher; 1 year)

18. 2026-04-30
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Excellent community with great neighbors that look out for each other! Brand spanking new furnace & central air conditioning. Community Pool. Newer roof (3 yrs), new skirting with extra insulation (2 yrs), new porch and ramp. Hot water heater. Updated bathroom, new flooring, ceiling fans, kitchen faucet. Newer Appliances including stove, microwave, washer, (dryer and dishwasher; 1 year)

19. 2026-04-30
    status Pending 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Excellent community with great neighbors that look out for each other! Brand spanking new furnace & central air conditioning. Community Pool. Newer roof (3 yrs), new skirting with extra insulation (2 yrs), new porch and ramp. Hot water heater. Updated bathroom, new flooring, ceiling fans, kitchen faucet. Newer Appliances including stove, microwave, washer, (dryer and dishwasher; 1 year)

20. 2026-02-14
    price $65,000 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Excellent community with great neighbors that look out for each other! Brand spanking new furnace & central air conditioning. Community Pool. Newer roof (3 yrs), new skirting with extra insulation (2 yrs), new porch and ramp. Hot water heater. Updated bathroom, new flooring, ceiling fans, kitchen faucet. Newer Appliances including stove, microwave, washer, (dryer and dishwasher; 1 year)

21. 2026-02-13
    price $65,000
22. 2026-02-09
    price $73,000 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Excellent community with great neighbors that look out for each other! Brand spanking new furnace & central air conditioning. Community Pool. Newer roof (3 yrs), new skirting with extra insulation (2 yrs), new porch and ramp. Hot water heater. Updated bathroom, new flooring, ceiling fans, kitchen faucet. Newer Appliances including stove, microwave, washer, (dryer and dishwasher; 1 year)

23. 2026-02-09
    price $73,000

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Excellent community with great neighbors that look out for each other! Brand spanking new furnace & central air conditioning. Community Pool. Newer roof (3 yrs), new skirting with extra insulation (2 yrs), new porch and ramp. Hot water heater. Updated bathroom, new flooring, ceiling fans, kitchen faucet. Newer Appliances including stove, microwave, washer, (dryer and dishwasher; 1 year)

24. 2026-01-12
    listed $74,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Excellent community with great neighbors that look out for each other! Brand spanking new furnace & central air conditioning. Community Pool. Newer roof (3 yrs), new skirting with extra insulation (2 yrs), new porch and ramp. Hot water heater. Updated bathroom, new flooring, ceiling fans, kitchen faucet. Newer Appliances including stove, microwave, washer, (dryer and dishwasher; 1 year)

25. 2026-01-12
    listed $74,900 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Excellent community with great neighbors that look out for each other! Brand spanking new furnace & central air conditioning. Community Pool. Newer roof (3 yrs), new skirting with extra insulation (2 yrs), new porch and ramp. Hot water heater. Updated bathroom, new flooring, ceiling fans, kitchen faucet. Newer Appliances including stove, microwave, washer, (dryer and dishwasher; 1 year)

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,473
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$1,804
• Taxable income: $12,356
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,965
• After-tax cash flow: $9,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, including a new roof and appliances. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for further value through exterior painting and fan replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Replace ceiling fans — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634470
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $65,953
• Composite: 40.52/100
• National rank: #3709
• State rank: #126 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #7973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 28,428

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 4% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 9% Arabic 4% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.36%
• Current HPI: 194.9368
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-16 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-30 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-30 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $65,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $73,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $73,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-12 Listed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-12 Listed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS