4191 Lake Rd #25 · Vineland, NJ 08344

$80,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 1978 Fair condition 1,200 sqft lot Est $104k · 23% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality. Step inside to discover a warm and inviting interior featuring ceiling fans for a refreshing breeze and a spacious combination kitchen and dining area, ideal for gatherings. The walk-in closet in the Master bedroom provide ample storage, ensuring your living space remains organized and clutter-free. The exterior boasts durable vinyl siding and a convenient satellite dish for your entertainment needs. With a single-wide design, this home is easy to maintain and offers a cozy atmosphere. Enjoy the convenience of a driveway with space for two vehicles, making coming and going a breeze. Eq

Key facts

• Durable vinyl siding
• Walk-in closet
• Essential appliances

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DURABLE VINYL SIDING
• ESSENTIAL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not in a federal flood zone; 2+ access exits; Pets allowed with breed restrictions
• HOA & community: Land lease payment $895 monthly; Ground rent paid annually; 99 years remaining; Land lease 99 years remaining; Park name: Lake Acres

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; 2 driveway spaces; 2 total garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling fuel; Natural gas heating and hot water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single wide type; Land lease ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Satellite dish; Above-grade other structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (including 2 full on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central A/C (electric); Natural gas heating; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Combination kitchen and dining area; Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.5% in Vineland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#363 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Vineland Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #418 of 472 in NJ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $77,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.90%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $103,740
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4191 Lake Rd #28	0.00mi	2/2.0	800 (+3%)	4mo	$50,000	$63	93
1107 W Weymouth Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0	792 (+2%)	23mo	$105,000	$133	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $14,284
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $47,575
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08344

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $80,000
18. 2026-05-18
    listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $4,101
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$984
• After-tax cash flow: $4,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family manufactured home requires significant repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior painting, and interior repairs. While it has potential, the current condition is not suitable for immediate resale or rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of potential leaks and wear.
• Major exterior siding — Peeling and faded paint indicating significant deterioration.
• Major interior walls — Signs of water damage and discoloration.
• Major HVAC system — General condition suggests it may need maintenance or replacement.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt, indicating lack of maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard can enhance the home's overall appearance and increase its value.
• Both roof repair or replacement — A new roof can protect the home from water damage and improve its overall condition.
• Both HVAC system maintenance or replacement — A functional HVAC system is essential for comfort and can improve the home's energy efficiency.
• Both interior repairs and updates — Addressing water damage and other interior issues can improve the home's livability and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of potential leaks and wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Peeling and faded paint indicating significant deterioration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Signs of water damage and discoloration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · General condition suggests it may need maintenance or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt, indicating lack of maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard can enhance the home's overall appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both roof repair or replacement — A new roof can protect the home from water damage and improve its overall condition. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance or replacement — A functional HVAC system is essential for comfort and can improve the home's energy efficiency. ↑
• Both interior repairs and updates — Addressing water damage and other interior issues can improve the home's livability and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vineland Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416800
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $51,168
• Composite: 19.17/100
• National rank: #8819
• State rank: #418 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vineland

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #12180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vineland, NJ
• City population: 45,038
• Population (ZIP): 5,296

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,743 people
• By 2030: 150,373 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 146,881 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 142,653 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 129,468 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 107,456 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: D+6.0 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+23.1 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.89%
• Current HPI: 288.38
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-15.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS