14159 Crutchfield Ct · Ruskin, FL 34219

$278,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,269 sqft · Land · 94 Days on market

Built 2026 5,330 sqft lot $12/mo HOA ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jan 2026! The Denali floorplan offers an open-concept floorplan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Indulge in a chef-inspired kitchen which overlooks a spacious great room and dining area. Salt Meadows offers new single-family homes in Parrish, FL with a variety of floorplans, both single-story and two-story. Residents will enjoy resort-style amenities including a large community pool, clubhouse with fitness center, sports courts, playground and more. With close proximity to I-75, this community offers easy access to St. Pete, Bradenton, Sarasota and beautiful gulf coast beaches. Schedule a tour today. Each of

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Community pool
• Sports courts

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• COMMUNITY POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• SPORTS COURTS
• PLAYGROUND

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $252,980 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.74%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-41,406
• Equity at exit: $41,451

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-51,118
• Equity at exit: $24,036

Cash invested: $77,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,720/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,400

Max offer price $278,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,500
• Closing costs: $8,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7148 Boggy Creek Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,929	$1.52	2d	1	0.61mi
8850 Ginko Run Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,600	$1.54	15d	1	0.82mi
12484 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,600	$1.71	23d	1	1.15mi
12573 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,500	$1.65	3d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   price $278,000
3. 2026-02-27
   price $287,800
4. 2026-02-20
   price $285,000
5. 2026-02-07
   price $288,000
6. 2026-01-30
   price $288,780
7. 2026-01-22
   price $289,000
8. 2026-01-08
   price $299,000
9. 2025-12-29
   listed $313,730 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,720 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,720 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,572
• − Property taxes: −$3,720
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,519
• − Management: −$2,519
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$8,087
• Taxable loss: −$2,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$590
• After-tax cash flow: $2,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $278,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $287,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $288,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $288,780 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Listed $313,730 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+601.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,720 · +601.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.