1747 Apple Cider Dr · Hebron, KY 41048

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1997 5,712 sqft lot Est $286k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly rehabbed & in move in condition! Pretty bay window! New: Carpet & padding, nickel doorknobs/hinges throughout, dimensional roof shingles, 42" Cognac kitchen cabinetry, modern bath vanities with granite tops, light fixtures, faucets, paint, insulated garage door, rear deck, blinds, wood laminate floor kitchen & dining rooms, stainless steel Whirlpool appliances.

Key facts

• Brick front
• Newer hvac systems
• Deck off the kitchen

Tags

• BRICK FRONT
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEMS
• 10 YEAR OLD ROOF
• FULLY PAID SOLAR PANELS
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• DECK OFF THE KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Hebron — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#69 in KY, #1,700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chester Goodridge Elementary School (math 39% / reading 51%, grade D-, #143 of 676 statewide, top 22%, 633 students, 45% FRL); Conner Middle School (math 50% / reading 62%, grade B-, #6 of 217 statewide, top 2%, 896 students, 35% FRL); Conner High School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 1,443 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($137k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $168k; list at $265k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $195,968 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,600
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1731 Apple Cider Dr	0.04mi	3/3.0	1,055 (+0%)	13mo	$287,000	$272	82
3677 Jonathan Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,004 (-4%)	13mo	$273,000	$272	76
3797 Sugarberry Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,044 (-1%)	22mo	$268,000	$257	71
3745 Jonathan Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+3%)	18mo	$265,000	$245	69
1789 Nicole Lauren Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-2%)	1mo	$315,000	$308	69
3701 Jonathan Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	940 (-10%)	14mo	$273,000	$290	66
3712 Jonathan Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	971 (-8%)	21mo	$235,000	$242	63
3848 Sugarberry Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,004 (-4%)	22mo	$255,000	$254	60
1698 Asher Ct	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,059 (+1%)	22mo	$323,000	$305	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-50,161
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-53,185
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41048

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,960 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,922/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,102

Max offer price $245,186

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-37	+0% $-112	+5% $-187	+10% $-262
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-190	+0% $-112	+5% $-35	+10% $43
Rate	-1.0pp $21	-0.5pp $-45	base $-112	+0.5pp $-181	+1.0pp $-251

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3465 Hebron Station Dr Hebron, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	819	$1,510	$1.84	4d	20	0.64mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $265,000 Active
3. 2018-08-27
   soldstatus $167,500
4. 2018-08-23
   soldstatus $167,500 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   Newly rehabbed & in move in condition! Pretty bay window! New: Carpet & padding, nickel doorknobs/hinges throughout, dimensional roof shingles, 42" Cognac kitchen cabinetry, modern bath vanities with granite tops, light fixtures, faucets, paint, insulated garage door, rear deck, blinds, wood laminate floor kitchen & dining rooms, stainless steel Whirlpool appliances.

5. 2018-07-14
   listed $164,500 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   Newly rehabbed & in move in condition! Pretty bay window! New: Carpet & padding, nickel doorknobs/hinges throughout, dimensional roof shingles, 42" Cognac kitchen cabinetry, modern bath vanities with granite tops, light fixtures, faucets, paint, insulated garage door, rear deck, blinds, wood laminate floor kitchen & dining rooms, stainless steel Whirlpool appliances.

6. 2018-05-21
   soldstatus $112,000
7. 2010-03-15
   soldstatus $134,900
8. 2009-03-12
   soldstatus $134,900 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   You Are Going to Love this ONE!Freshly Painted, New Carpet*New Kitchen Appliances*Designer Lighting*2 1/2 Baths*A Spectacular Garage*Wall of Cabinets*Finished for a Workout Room or Party Room w.Lots of Lighting*Fabulous Workshop/Hobby Room!

9. 2008-12-31
   listed $134,900 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   You Are Going to Love this ONE!Freshly Painted, New Carpet*New Kitchen Appliances*Designer Lighting*2 1/2 Baths*A Spectacular Garage*Wall of Cabinets*Finished for a Workout Room or Party Room w.Lots of Lighting*Fabulous Workshop/Hobby Room!

10. 2005-06-03
    soldstatus $116,145
11. 2005-04-15
    listed $111,000
12. 2002-10-31
    soldstatus $118,500
13. 2002-10-25
    soldstatus $118,500
14. 2002-06-12
    listed $115,000
15. 1997-11-14
    soldstatus $97,900
16. 1997-10-30
    soldstatus $97,900
17. 1997-08-29
    listed $92,900
18. 1997-02-04
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,279 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$357/yr (+$30/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,516
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,922
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,881
• − Management: −$1,881
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$6,047
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,451
• After-tax cash flow: $105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hebron

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #1700

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hebron, KY
• County: Boone County · 99,563 people
• City population: 16,211
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 16,211
• Household income: $137,398
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.70%
• Current HPI: 189.8568
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+165.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $265,000 NKMLS
• 2018-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $167,500 Public Records
• 2018-08-23 Sold (MLS) $167,500 NKMLS
• 2018-07-14 Listed $164,500 NKMLS
• 2018-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2010-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $134,900 Public Records
• 2009-03-12 Sold (MLS) $134,900 NKMLS
• 2008-12-31 Listed $134,900 NKMLS
• 2005-06-03 Sold (MLS) $116,145 NKMLS
• 2005-04-15 Listed $111,000 NKMLS
• 2002-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $118,500 Public Records
• 2002-10-25 Sold (MLS) $118,500 NKMLS
• 2002-06-12 Listed $115,000 NKMLS
• 1997-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $97,900 Public Records
• 1997-10-30 Sold (MLS) $97,900 NKMLS
• 1997-08-29 Listed $92,900 NKMLS
• 1997-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,922 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.