1021 Willow Oaks Cir · Pasadena, TX 77506

$114,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Townhouse public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1974 1,869 sqft lot $76/sqft · 26% below area Est $155k · 26% under $164/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity. 3 bedroom townhome with 2 full bathroom and a 1/2 bath down. All bedrooms up and has a very spacious family room with fireplace. All appliances stay. Townhome does need some updating but has great potential. Seller is looking at all offers.

Key facts

• $164 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Willow Oaks homeowners association; Annual HOA fee of $1,969; HOA covers clubhouse, common areas, and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 2 stories; Built in 1974; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; Lot approximately 1,869 square feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Electric oven; Electric range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.4% in Pasadena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bobby Shaw Middle (math 19% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 692 students, 95% FRL); Sam Rayburn H S (math 52% / reading 36%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,645 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 71% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $115k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,176 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,675
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: -25.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-8,034
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $7,239
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77506

• Home prices YoY: -15.5%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$295 /mo · $3,536/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$164
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,404

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
719 Burke Rd Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1158	$2,000	$1.73	4d	1	0.62mi
1118 Madison Ave Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$1,700	$1.03	44d	1	0.79mi
205 Tilden Dr Pasadena, TX	3.0	1.0	1208	$1,550	$1.28	44d	1	0.98mi
2001 Burke Rd Pasadena, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	989	$1,479	$1.50	2d	6	1.03mi
2405 Pomona Dr Pasadena, TX	3.0	1.0	1162	$1,499	$1.29	44d	1	1.10mi
707 Preston Ave Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,089	$0.87	22d	1	1.11mi
2513 Leslie St Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1849	$1,895	$1.02	3d	1	1.14mi
1007 Spooner St Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,650	$1.40	44d	1	1.15mi
3119 Chestershire Dr Pasadena, TX	3.0	1.0	1081	$1,625	$1.50	44d	1	1.40mi
3112 Grant St Pasadena, TX	3.0	1.0	1330	$1,625	$1.22	22d	1	1.43mi
2320 Cherry Brook Ln Apt 510 Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,167	$0.97	3d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $164 · $1,968/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $114,900 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $114,900 Pending 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $114,900 Pending 23 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $114,900 Pending 22 DOM
5. 2026-05-06
   listed $130,000 Active 259-char remark
6. 2013-11-15
   soldstatus
7. 2013-11-14
   soldstatus Sold 270-char remark

   Show marketing remark (270 chars)

   Great investment opportunity. 3 bedroom townhome with 2 full bathroom and a 1/2 bath down. All bedrooms up and has a very spacious family room with fireplace. All appliances stay. Townhome does need some updating but has great potential. Seller is looking at all offers.

8. 2013-10-27
   status Pending, Continue to Show 270-char remark

   Show marketing remark (270 chars)

   Great investment opportunity. 3 bedroom townhome with 2 full bathroom and a 1/2 bath down. All bedrooms up and has a very spacious family room with fireplace. All appliances stay. Townhome does need some updating but has great potential. Seller is looking at all offers.

9. 2013-10-16
   status Option Pending 270-char remark

   Show marketing remark (270 chars)

   Great investment opportunity. 3 bedroom townhome with 2 full bathroom and a 1/2 bath down. All bedrooms up and has a very spacious family room with fireplace. All appliances stay. Townhome does need some updating but has great potential. Seller is looking at all offers.

10. 2013-10-08
    price $45,000 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Great investment opportunity. 3 bedroom townhome with 2 full bathroom and a 1/2 bath down. All bedrooms up and has a very spacious family room with fireplace. All appliances stay. Townhome does need some updating but has great potential. Seller is looking at all offers.

11. 2013-08-02
    price $50,000 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Great investment opportunity. 3 bedroom townhome with 2 full bathroom and a 1/2 bath down. All bedrooms up and has a very spacious family room with fireplace. All appliances stay. Townhome does need some updating but has great potential. Seller is looking at all offers.

12. 2013-07-11
    price $55,000 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Great investment opportunity. 3 bedroom townhome with 2 full bathroom and a 1/2 bath down. All bedrooms up and has a very spacious family room with fireplace. All appliances stay. Townhome does need some updating but has great potential. Seller is looking at all offers.

13. 2013-05-10
    listed $58,500 Active 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Great investment opportunity. 3 bedroom townhome with 2 full bathroom and a 1/2 bath down. All bedrooms up and has a very spacious family room with fireplace. All appliances stay. Townhome does need some updating but has great potential. Seller is looking at all offers.

14. 2013-05-10
    historical

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Great investment opportunity. 3 bedroom townhome with 2 full bathroom and a 1/2 bath down. All bedrooms up and has a very spacious family room with fireplace. All appliances stay. Townhome does need some updating but has great potential. Seller is looking at all offers.

15. 2013-03-19
    price $58,500
16. 2013-01-20
    listed $60,000 Active
17. 2005-01-28
    historical
18. 2004-10-25
    listed $77,500
19. 1995-03-31
    soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,536 · $295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,536 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$3,536
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,546
• − Management: −$1,546
• − HOA: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $371
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$89
• After-tax cash flow: $1,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasadena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,163
• Composite: 26.15/100
• National rank: #7275
• State rank: #612 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pasadena

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #11438

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena, TX
• City population: 109,190
• Population (ZIP): 35,243

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 36% White 9% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 77%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 69%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.82%
• Current HPI: 315.9695
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+167.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $114,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2013-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-11-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-10-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-10-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-10-08 Price Changed $45,000 HARMLS
• 2013-08-02 Price Changed $50,000 HARMLS
• 2013-07-11 Price Changed $55,000 HARMLS
• 2013-05-10 Listed $58,500 HARMLS
• 2013-05-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-03-19 Price Changed $58,500 HARMLS
• 2013-01-20 Listed $60,000 HARMLS
• 2005-01-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-10-25 Listed $77,500 HARMLS
• 1995-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,536 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.