15470 Cedarwood Ln #201 · Bonita Springs, FL 34110

$420,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Condo public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1987 $992/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One of the best views in beautiful Bay Forest! Enjoy a gorgeous view of the lake and fountain from your bonus sunroom: the glassed-in lanai, offering extra privacy without infringing on the tranquil ambience. Vaulted ceilings throughout the unit feature skylights in the living area and den, while end-unit windows along the great room and kitchen provide additional natural light, with trees beyond that afford privacy. A screened balcony on the front of the house offers more sun-soaking space. Tile floors, stainless appliances, newer cabinets and vanities, and updated primary tub/shower and guest shower make this move-in ready. The den has room for a pull-out bed and pocket doors for privacy

Key facts

• Tile floors
• Glassed-in lanai
• Screened balcony

Tags

• GORGEOUS VIEW OF THE LAKE
• GLASSED-IN LANAI
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SKYLIGHTS IN THE LIVING AREA
• SCREENED BALCONY
• TILE FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Complex has 37 units; 4 units in building; 2 units per floor; single-floor building
• Financial info: Total annual recurring HOA fees approximately $11,900; Total one-time fees approximately $3,200
• HOA & community: Quarterly condo fee; Condo management; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, bocce, shuffleboard, bike/jog path, sidewalks, library, internet access; Maintenance covers insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, pest control (interior & exterior), sewer, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal, manager, legal/accounting, reserves, and master association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Common paved parking; Detached 1-car garage
• Security: Monitored alarm; Gated community
• Utilities: Central water (assessment paid); Central sewer (assessment paid); Cable available
• Home design: Residential low-rise building (1–3 stories); Concrete block construction; Built in 1987; Rear exposure to the southeast; Unit located in Bay Forest development, Sandy Pines sub-condo; Unit/lot number 201
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco finish; Shingle roof; Built in 1987
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Sliding windows; Electric and manual shutters; Stucco exterior; Gated community; Lake and water feature views; Private road; Regular lot; deeded restrictions

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/freezer; Refrigerator/ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus den; Split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with combo tub and shower and dual sinks
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Custom mirrors; High-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Vaulted ceiling; Walk-in closet; Turnkey furnished; Built-in desk; Dining area open to family room; Eat-in kitchen; Den / study; Glass porch; Screened balcony; Laundry in residence; Auto garage door; Security system; 7 ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $391k (6.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $420k).
• Recommended offer: $382k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,508/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($382k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $420k implies a 201% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $382,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-91,197
• Equity at exit: $62,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-141,661
• Equity at exit: $36,314

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34110

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,508 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,486/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$992
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$947
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,717

Max offer price $390,875

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15400 Cedarwood Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,300	$4.90	13d	1	0.03mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln Unit 1-201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,000	$4.67	23d	1	0.03mi
15415 Cedarwood Ln Unit 3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$2,200	$1.54	13d	1	0.13mi
285 Naples Cove Dr #1103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,475	$1.95	23d	1	0.13mi
290 Naples Cove Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1327	$3,400	$2.56	23d	3	0.16mi
270 Naples Cove Dr #3506 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,500	$1.69	21d	1	0.17mi
15191 Cedarwood Ln #2602 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,300	$1.82	23d	1	0.21mi
15161 Cedarwood Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$4,000	$3.16	23d	3	0.26mi
386 Emerald Bay Cir Unit G4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,500	$1.68	23d	1	0.32mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J8 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$4,000	$2.96	23d	1	0.40mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$5,900	$3.96	23d	1	0.40mi
298 Emerald Bay Cir Unit K6 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$4,750	$3.95	23d	1	0.42mi
341 Emerald Bay Cir Unit T5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$4,500	$2.79	23d	1	0.42mi
28940 Bermuda Pointe Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$5,500	$5.11	23d	1	0.51mi
505 Lake Louise Cir #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	23d	1	0.55mi
1001 Arbor Lake Dr Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1755	$3,800	$2.16	23d	2	0.61mi
513 Lake Louise Cir #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,300	$3.67	23d	1	0.62mi
28720 Bermuda Bay Way #205 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$2,200	$2.01	14d	1	0.63mi
526 Lake Louise Cir Unit 4-403 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$6,500	$3.74	23d	1	0.74mi
28712 Carmel Way Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1626	$9,250	$5.69	23d	1	0.75mi
3930 Windward Passage Cir #202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$1,900	$1.29	15d	1	0.79mi
999 E Valley Dr Unit 1073522P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$9,929	$5.95	21d	1	0.82mi
3951 Windward Passage Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1397	$5,200	$3.72	23d	1	0.82mi
62 8th St Unit 1073526P Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1593	$5,435	$3.41	23d	1	0.83mi
3941 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,000	$1.66	23d	1	0.89mi
74 7th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$3,150	$2.80	23d	1	0.90mi
3921 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$3,500	$2.91	23d	1	0.90mi
265 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1604	$9,500	$5.92	23d	3	0.97mi
265 Barefoot Beach Blvd #203 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1604	$13,000	$8.10	13d	1	0.97mi
262 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0–3.0	1864	$10,500	$5.63	23d	2	0.97mi
28650 Carriage Home Dr Unit 1049692P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$3,980	$2.60	15d	1	0.98mi
64 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1231	$3,700	$3.01	23d	2	1.05mi
28611 Carriage Home Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1433	$2,550	$1.78	23d	1	1.06mi
60 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1860	$11,400	$6.13	23d	1	1.08mi
28327 Hidden Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$8,950	$5.71	23d	1	1.09mi
28700 Trails Edge Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,175	$1.49	3d	2	1.16mi
75 3rd St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1630	$8,900	$5.46	23d	1	1.17mi
1360 Sweetwater Cv #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,500	$4.30	23d	1	1.19mi
255 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1864	$9,700	$5.20	13d	2	1.19mi
1390 Sweetwater Cv #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$2,200	$1.72	13d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $992 · $11,904/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $420,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $420,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $420,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $420,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $420,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $420,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $420,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $420,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $420,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $420,000 Active 80 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,486 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,486 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$3,486
• − Insurance: −$2,898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,328
• − Management: −$4,328
• − HOA: −$11,904
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$8,588
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,061
• After-tax cash flow: $83/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,630
• Household income: $97,564
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.68%
• Current HPI: 267.4644
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+201.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $420,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $445,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1989-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $139,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,486 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.