3939 Madison Ave #146 · North Highlands, CA 95660

$152,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 826 sqft · Condo public records · 358 Days on market

Built 1985 $185/sqft · 25% below area Est $204k · 25% under $671/mo HOA · 37% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see this cute Condominium, and make it your own little piece of heaven. Being sold in as is

Key facts

• $671 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $152k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (28.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#523 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Madison Elementary (706 students, 95% FRL); Foothill Ranch Middle (453 students, 94% FRL); Foothill High (1,251 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 76% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.

Recommended offer $109,314 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.87%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,584
• List price: $152,500
• Delta: -25.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-34,771
• Equity at exit: $22,738

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-26,545
• Equity at exit: $13,185

Cash invested: $42,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95660

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$800
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,888/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$671
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,141

Max offer price $109,314

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-158	-5% $-201	+0% $-244	+5% $-288	+10% $-331
Rent	-10% $-389	-5% $-317	+0% $-244	+5% $-172	+10% $-100
Rate	-1.0pp $-168	-0.5pp $-206	base $-244	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,125
• Closing costs: $4,575
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5416 Jackson St North Highlands, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	720	$1,750	$2.43	0d	29	0.16mi
5123 Shell St North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	912	$1,775	$1.95	0d	1	0.25mi
3800 Madison Ave North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	524	$1,500	$2.86	0d	7	0.27mi
5520 Harrison St North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	735	$1,478	$2.01	9d	1	0.30mi
5061 Shell St North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,000	$2.67	3d	1	0.34mi
3731 Scallop Ct North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$2,150	$2.33	45d	1	0.36mi
5119 Hillsdale Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	592	$1,250	$2.11	0d	1	0.41mi
5516 Palmdale Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1115	$2,250	$2.02	22d	1	0.44mi
5625 San Vincente Way North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	875	$2,150	$2.46	0d	1	0.48mi
3652 McClellan Dr North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	0d	1	0.53mi
4008 Tricia Way North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	14d	1	0.54mi
4020 Tricia Way Unit 4688001002 North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	45d	1	0.54mi
4215 Palm Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,660	$2.14	0d	3	0.58mi
4930 Polk St North Highlands, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,795	$1.91	0d	3	0.63mi
5733 San Vincente Way North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	925	$2,195	$2.37	4d	1	0.66mi
4358 Greenholme Dr #9 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	844	$1,695	$2.01	5d	1	0.70mi
3669 Myrtle Ave North Highlands, CA	1.0	1.0	620	$1,245	$2.01	0d	2	0.72mi
3609 Myrtle Ave North Highlands, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	0d	2	0.74mi
5800 Hamilton St Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	823	$1,770	$2.15	0d	4	0.76mi
5614 Hillsdale Blvd Unit A Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	933	$1,450	$1.55	24d	1	0.80mi
3517 Myrtle Ave North Highlands, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,750	$1.94	5d	1	0.81mi
6037 N Haven Dr North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	884	$2,150	$2.43	0d	1	0.89mi
5674 Hillsdale Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	933	$1,600	$1.71	0d	1	0.90mi
4605 Cyclamen Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$1,695	$1.95	0d	1	0.92mi
4549 Greenholme Dr #2 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$2,000	$2.38	5d	1	0.94mi
5001 Date Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1106	$2,400	$2.17	0d	1	0.97mi
5048 Date Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,588	$1.59	45d	1	0.98mi
5600 Walerga Rd #4 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$1,700	$1.84	0d	1	1.00mi
4561 Ashcroft Ave Unit 52 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,395	$1.55	0d	1	1.01mi
4561 Ashcroft Ave Apt 49 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	888	$1,350	$1.52	0d	1	1.01mi
4552 Ashcroft Ave Unit 36D Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	0d	1	1.01mi
5728 Luce Ave McClellan Park, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0	1058	$2,120	$2.00	0d	3	1.01mi
5011 Bremner Way #3 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,700	$2.00	25d	1	1.03mi
5011 Bremner Way #2 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,700	$2.00	0d	1	1.03mi
4728 Amber Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	730	$1,900	$2.60	21d	1	1.05mi
5008 Bremner Way #3 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	0d	1	1.07mi
4909 Date Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	737	$1,750	$2.37	45d	1	1.08mi
4815 Mary Kate Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,850	$1.68	45d	1	1.10mi
5415 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,725	$2.03	0d	3	1.10mi
4821 Mary Kate Dr Unit 4823 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,675	$1.60	3d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $671 · $8,052/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $152,500 Active 358 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $152,500 Active 355 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $152,500 Active 354 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $152,500 Active 353 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,500 Active 352 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $152,500 Active 350 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $152,500 Active 349 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,500 Active 346 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $152,500 Active 345 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $152,500 Active 344 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,500 Active 340 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,500 Active 339 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,500 Active 338 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,500 Active 337 DOM
15. 2018-06-22
    soldstatus $140,000
16. 2016-03-04
    soldstatus $85,500
17. 2005-12-30
    soldstatus $179,000
18. 2005-12-30
    soldstatus $179,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,888 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,888 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,542
• − Property taxes: −$1,888
• − Insurance: −$762
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,759
• − Management: −$1,759
• − HOA: −$8,052
• − Depreciation: −$4,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,252
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601332
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,481
• Composite: 30.67/100
• National rank: #11437
• State rank: #970 of 1400 in CA

Livability — North Highlands

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #523
• US rank: #17613

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Highlands, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 56,900
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,451
• Household income: $68,235
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 25% Russian/Polish/Slavic 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -273.83%
• Current HPI: 438.1022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.69%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-21.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2018-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $85,500 Public Records
• 2005-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $179,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $179,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,888 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.