6533 Dahlia Dr · Panama City, FL 32404

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1982 0.70 ac lot Est $253k · 21% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

'CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS' Investors dream! Home was taken down to studs and rebuilt, from plumbing to electrical, 220 amp breakers, New roof in 2022, Seller had to change directions and now your buyer can get this great deal, Only a few items left to do. Home has new Water Treatment system, that is attached to outside spigots, 3 bed 2 bath home with bonus room, Separate Garage, and Lots of Space. 75 ft of water front Bayou George that flows into Deer Point Lake . This is a great investment for someone who is not afraid of a little work.

Key facts

• Separate garage
• Bonus room
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW WATER TREATMENT SYSTEM
• WATER FRONT BAYOU GEORGE
• BONUS ROOM
• SEPARATE GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: TIDEWATER ESTATES

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage and carport; 3-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electric service; Septic tank
• Home design: Florida cottage style; Single-story; Built in 1982
• Construction: Frame construction with wood trim; Composite shingle roof; Appraiser-provided building area
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Within 1/2 mile to water; Paved road access; Boat launch in the community; Waterfront property with canal access and seawall (75 feet of waterfront)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Window treatments; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-765/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (5.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tommy Smith Elementary School (math 46% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 639 students, 53% FRL); Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $165k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,736 (5.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.81%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,720
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7306 Charles Loring Jr Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,443 (+3%)	4mo	$259,900	$180	67
7326 Charles Loring Jr Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-9%)	3mo	$252,900	$197	58
7358 Charles Loring Jr Rd	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+7%)	2mo	$265,000	$176	57
7130 Hatteras Blvd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,546 (+10%)	13mo	$270,000	$175	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-39,942
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-54,342
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,085 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,894/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,166

Max offer price $187,736

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6416 Bellavia Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,100	$1.16	13d	1	1.38mi
4800 N Star Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,623	$1.67	13d	10	1.42mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   status Active
7. 2026-05-17
   status Active 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   'CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS' Investors dream! Home was taken down to studs and rebuilt, from plumbing to electrical, 220 amp breakers, New roof in 2022, Seller had to change directions and now your buyer can get this great deal, Only a few items left to do. Home has new Water Treatment system, that is attached to outside spigots, 3 bed 2 bath home with bonus room, Separate Garage, and Lots of Space. 75 ft of water front Bayou George that flows into Deer Point Lake . This is a great investment for someone who is not afraid of a little work.

8. 2026-04-29
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   'CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS' Investors dream! Home was taken down to studs and rebuilt, from plumbing to electrical, 220 amp breakers, New roof in 2022, Seller had to change directions and now your buyer can get this great deal, Only a few items left to do. Home has new Water Treatment system, that is attached to outside spigots, 3 bed 2 bath home with bonus room, Separate Garage, and Lots of Space. 75 ft of water front Bayou George that flows into Deer Point Lake . This is a great investment for someone who is not afraid of a little work.

9. 2026-04-29
   historical Active Under Contract 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   'CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS' Investors dream! Home was taken down to studs and rebuilt, from plumbing to electrical, 220 amp breakers, New roof in 2022, Seller had to change directions and now your buyer can get this great deal, Only a few items left to do. Home has new Water Treatment system, that is attached to outside spigots, 3 bed 2 bath home with bonus room, Separate Garage, and Lots of Space. 75 ft of water front Bayou George that flows into Deer Point Lake . This is a great investment for someone who is not afraid of a little work.

10. 2026-04-28
    price $199,000
11. 2026-04-27
    price $199,000 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    'CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS' Investors dream! Home was taken down to studs and rebuilt, from plumbing to electrical, 220 amp breakers, New roof in 2022, Seller had to change directions and now your buyer can get this great deal, Only a few items left to do. Home has new Water Treatment system, that is attached to outside spigots, 3 bed 2 bath home with bonus room, Separate Garage, and Lots of Space. 75 ft of water front Bayou George that flows into Deer Point Lake . This is a great investment for someone who is not afraid of a little work.

12. 2026-04-21
    price $229,000 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    'CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS' Investors dream! Home was taken down to studs and rebuilt, from plumbing to electrical, 220 amp breakers, New roof in 2022, Seller had to change directions and now your buyer can get this great deal, Only a few items left to do. Home has new Water Treatment system, that is attached to outside spigots, 3 bed 2 bath home with bonus room, Separate Garage, and Lots of Space. 75 ft of water front Bayou George that flows into Deer Point Lake . This is a great investment for someone who is not afraid of a little work.

13. 2026-03-30
    price $249,000 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    'CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS' Investors dream! Home was taken down to studs and rebuilt, from plumbing to electrical, 220 amp breakers, New roof in 2022, Seller had to change directions and now your buyer can get this great deal, Only a few items left to do. Home has new Water Treatment system, that is attached to outside spigots, 3 bed 2 bath home with bonus room, Separate Garage, and Lots of Space. 75 ft of water front Bayou George that flows into Deer Point Lake . This is a great investment for someone who is not afraid of a little work.

14. 2026-03-16
    listed $229,000 Active
15. 2026-03-10
    listed $285,000 Active 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    'CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS' Investors dream! Home was taken down to studs and rebuilt, from plumbing to electrical, 220 amp breakers, New roof in 2022, Seller had to change directions and now your buyer can get this great deal, Only a few items left to do. Home has new Water Treatment system, that is attached to outside spigots, 3 bed 2 bath home with bonus room, Separate Garage, and Lots of Space. 75 ft of water front Bayou George that flows into Deer Point Lake . This is a great investment for someone who is not afraid of a little work.

16. 2023-08-14
    historical
17. 2023-08-12
    price $299,000
18. 2023-07-04
    listed $330,000 Active
19. 2023-05-27
    historical
20. 2023-05-04
    price $299,000
21. 2023-04-24
    price $310,000
22. 2023-04-20
    price $320,000
23. 2023-04-01
    listed $330,000 Active
24. 2021-12-16
    historical
25. 2021-12-14
    historical
26. 2021-12-14
    historical
27. 2021-12-14
    historical
28. 2021-12-14
    historical
29. 2021-11-16
    listed $259,900
30. 2021-10-18
    soldstatus $165,000
31. 2021-09-15
    listed $169,000
32. 2007-11-12
    listed $210,000
33. 2007-05-11
    listed $220,000
34. 2007-05-01
    listed $255,000
35. 2007-01-19
    listed $255,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,894 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,894 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,894
• − Insurance: −$6,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,002
• − Management: −$2,002
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$943
• After-tax cash flow: $177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-22.0% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — ECAR
• 2026-05-17 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $199,000 ECAR
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $199,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $229,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $249,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $229,000 ECAR
• 2026-03-10 Listed $285,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-08-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2023-08-12 Price Changed $299,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-07-04 Listed $330,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-05-27 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2023-05-04 Price Changed $299,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-04-24 Price Changed $310,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-04-20 Price Changed $320,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-04-01 Listed $330,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-16 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-11-16 Listed $259,900 CPARMLS
• 2021-10-18 Sold (MLS) $165,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-09-15 Listed $169,000 CPARMLS
• 2007-11-12 Listed $210,000 CPARMLS
• 2007-05-11 Listed $220,000 CPARMLS
• 2007-05-01 Listed $255,000 CPARMLS
• 2007-01-19 Listed $255,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,894 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.