2706 Winchester St · Baltimore, MD 21216

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Townhouse public records · 243 Days on market

Built 1940 $71/sqft · 39% below area Est $147k · 39% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY -- PROPERTY NEEDS LITTLE INVESTMENT FOR POSITIVE CASH LOW-- 2 BEDROOMS, POSSIBLE BABY ROOM OR DEN -- SPACIOUS ROOMS -- PANTRY OFF KITCHEN -- NICE REAR YARD -- CLOSE TO SCHOOL. COVERED FRONT PORCH.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Bright living room
• Fenced rear yard

Tags

• FENCED REAR YARD
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CLEAN OPEN UTILITY SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $587 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,750/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $90k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.96%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,837
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -38.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2711 Riggs Ave	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,288 (+2%)	2mo	$134,000	$104	90
3004 Brighton St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,288 (+2%)	1mo	$44,000	$34	78
2435 Lauretta Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,260 (0%)	1mo	$45,000	$36	70
1218 N Longwood St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (-6%)	2mo	$56,000	$47	66
3224 Belmont Ave	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,178 (-6%)	1mo	$77,000	$65	63
1528 N Ellamont St	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,328 (+5%)	1mo	$209,000	$157	59
1625 N Rosedale St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,396 (+11%)	2mo	$36,000	$26	57
3018 Presstman St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+11%)	1mo	$108,000	$77	53
537 Longwood St	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-7%)	0mo	$60,000	$51	53
2920 Brighton St	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,440 (+14%)	2mo	$247,500	$172	52
3020 Brighton St	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,406 (+12%)	2mo	$209,000	$149	49
2416 W Franklin St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+14%)	2mo	$67,000	$47	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $28,555
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $98,131
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21216

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,445/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,008

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2728 Winchester St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,800	$1.43	3d	1	0.04mi
2806 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1412	$1,900	$1.35	3d	1	0.14mi
2744 W Mosher St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1412	$2,100	$1.49	24d	1	0.18mi
2800 Presstman St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,799	$1.23	24d	1	0.22mi
1402 Poplar Grove St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1540	$800	$0.52	43d	1	0.23mi
3003 Presstman St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	44d	1	0.34mi
3003 Presstman St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1450	$1,300	$0.90	24d	1	0.34mi
1042 Ellicott Dr Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	43d	1	0.39mi
2301 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,600	$1.49	24d	1	0.44mi
1530 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,895	$1.15	15d	1	0.46mi
1617 Moreland Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	24d	1	0.48mi
3015 Rayner Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	43d	1	0.49mi
918 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1485	$1,750	$1.18	43d	1	0.49mi
3238 Westmont Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1280	$1,600	$1.25	43d	1	0.49mi
1513 N Ellamont St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	24d	1	0.49mi
3127 Baker St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	43d	1	0.50mi
1617-A Moreland Ave Unit 2nd Flr Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	43d	1	0.51mi
2303 Calverton Heights Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1314	$2,250	$1.71	24d	1	0.53mi
2636 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,475	$1.51	4d	1	0.54mi
2922 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,900	$1.17	43d	1	0.55mi
2636 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1232	$1,900	$1.54	43d	1	0.56mi
3003 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	841	$935	$1.11	2d	3	0.56mi
2609 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,675	$1.30	24d	1	0.58mi
2405 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1826	$1,900	$1.04	4d	1	0.59mi
3309 Brighton St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,700	$1.50	43d	1	0.59mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	0.64mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	11d	1	0.64mi
2815 W Mulberry St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1040	$2,050	$1.97	43d	1	0.66mi
2917 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	24d	1	0.67mi
2812 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,850	$1.12	43d	1	0.68mi
1501 N Payson St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	43d	1	0.71mi
1914 Mosher St Unit 1914 Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1200	$1,700	$1.42	43d	1	0.76mi
780 Linnard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,590	$1.30	43d	1	0.77mi
798 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,295	$1.69	24d	1	0.77mi
787 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,575	$1.41	24d	1	0.78mi
2204 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	4d	1	0.82mi
3017 Poplar Ter Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	880	$1,349	$1.53	24d	1	0.83mi
730 Linnard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,750	$1.29	24d	1	0.86mi
1722 N Monroe St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	24d	1	0.86mi
1930 N Payson St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	24d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 243 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 233 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 232 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,900 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $89,900
15. 2026-04-13
    price $94,900
16. 2026-02-26
    price $100,000
17. 2026-01-14
    status Active
18. 2026-01-12
    historical
19. 2025-10-16
    listed $104,500 Active
20. 2022-08-25
    soldstatus $45,000
21. 2019-11-07
    soldstatus $86,892
22. 2019-09-12
    soldstatus $86,892
23. 2014-08-28
    soldstatus $60,000
24. 2014-02-28
    soldstatus $15,300 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY -- PROPERTY NEEDS LITTLE INVESTMENT FOR POSITIVE CASH LOW-- 2 BEDROOMS, POSSIBLE BABY ROOM OR DEN -- SPACIOUS ROOMS -- PANTRY OFF KITCHEN -- NICE REAR YARD -- CLOSE TO SCHOOL. COVERED FRONT PORCH.

25. 2014-02-28
    soldstatus $15,300 Sold

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY -- PROPERTY NEEDS LITTLE INVESTMENT FOR POSITIVE CASH LOW-- 2 BEDROOMS, POSSIBLE BABY ROOM OR DEN -- SPACIOUS ROOMS -- PANTRY OFF KITCHEN -- NICE REAR YARD -- CLOSE TO SCHOOL. COVERED FRONT PORCH.

26. 2014-01-15
    status Contract
27. 2014-01-14
    historical 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY -- PROPERTY NEEDS LITTLE INVESTMENT FOR POSITIVE CASH LOW-- 2 BEDROOMS, POSSIBLE BABY ROOM OR DEN -- SPACIOUS ROOMS -- PANTRY OFF KITCHEN -- NICE REAR YARD -- CLOSE TO SCHOOL. COVERED FRONT PORCH.

28. 2013-11-03
    listed $15,000 Active
29. 2013-11-02
    listed $15,000 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY -- PROPERTY NEEDS LITTLE INVESTMENT FOR POSITIVE CASH LOW-- 2 BEDROOMS, POSSIBLE BABY ROOM OR DEN -- SPACIOUS ROOMS -- PANTRY OFF KITCHEN -- NICE REAR YARD -- CLOSE TO SCHOOL. COVERED FRONT PORCH.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,445 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,445 · $287/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$3,445
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $6,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,463
• After-tax cash flow: $5,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 29,426
• Household income: $42,031
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2264.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% White 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.42%
• Current HPI: 164.3933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+499.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $94,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-14 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $104,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $86,892 Public Records
• 2019-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $86,892 Public Records
• 2014-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-28 Sold (MLS) $15,300 MRIS
• 2014-02-28 Sold (MLS) $15,300 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-15 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-01-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-11-03 Listed $15,000 MRIS
• 2013-11-02 Listed $15,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,445 · +57.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.