6893 S Lake Forest Ct · Chandler, AZ 85249

$315,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,083 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1996 3,629 sqft lot $291/sqft · 6% below area Est $335k · 6% under $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Light and bright, this refreshed extended Carmel model in the desirable 55+ Sunbird community offers comfort and low-maintenance living. Freshly painted throughout with updated bathroom fixtures, new microwave, newer white kitchen cabinets with updated hardware, and new light fixtures including a ceiling fan in the great room. Plantation shutters throughout enhance natural light and efficiency. This 2-bedroom, 1.75-bath home is move-in ready with room to personalize. Features a 2-car garage and sits on a cul-de-sac pie-shaped lot for added space and privacy. Enjoy guard-gated access, clubhouse dining, resort-style pool/spa, fitness center, pickleball, and championship golf. Close to shopping, dining, and freeway access.

Key facts

• Updated hardware
• New light fixtures
• New microwave

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOM FIXTURES
• NEW MICROWAVE
• NEWER WHITE KITCHEN CABINETS
• UPDATED HARDWARE
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• CEILING FAN IN GREAT ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-183 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($154k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,156 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,930
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -5.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1941 E Kerby Farms Rd	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,017 (-6%)	1mo	$294,500	$290	87
6901 S Coral Gable Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,017 (-6%)	2mo	$285,000	$280	84
1972 E Doral Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,029 (-5%)	1mo	$316,000	$307	76
1701 E Kerby Farms Rd E	0.18mi	2/2.0	985 (-9%)	1mo	$280,000	$284	76
1521 E Buena Vista Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,065 (-2%)	2mo	$345,000	$324	74
1757 E Palm Beach Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	969 (-10%)	2mo	$306,000	$316	74
6541 S Cypress Point Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0	974 (-10%)	1mo	$279,000	$286	68
1440 E La Costa Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+2%)	1mo	$327,500	$298	65
1822 E Riviera Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	974 (-10%)	1mo	$260,000	$267	64
1460 E Doral Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,170 (+8%)	1mo	$329,500	$282	59
1518 E Spyglass Dr	0.48mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,195 (+10%)	1mo	$325,000	$272	54
6450 S Nash Way	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,240 (+14%)	1mo	$382,000	$308	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-62,676
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-69,432
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85249

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,302 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,121/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,534

Max offer price $282,616

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6973 S Oakmont Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1467	$2,500	$1.70	43d	1	0.11mi
6761 S Oakmont Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1469	$2,200	$1.50	19d	1	0.15mi
1830 E Westchester Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,800	$1.77	43d	1	0.18mi
1830 E Westchester Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,800	$1.77	24d	1	0.18mi
6381 S Championship Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,800	$2.63	24d	1	0.55mi
6242 S Cypress Point Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	921	$1,700	$1.85	18d	1	0.68mi
6450 S Nash Way Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,300	$1.85	14d	1	0.69mi
1464 E Runaway Bay Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,975	$1.84	24d	1	0.72mi
6481 S Windstream Pl Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1258	$3,500	$2.78	1d	1	0.73mi
1864 E Augusta Ave Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	930	$1,750	$1.88	2d	1	0.82mi
1452 E Torrey Pines Ln Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1199	$3,900	$3.25	20d	1	0.87mi
5900 S Gilbert Rd Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$6,800	$4.53	1d	1	1.36mi
6075 S Gilbert Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,295	$2.74	1d	10	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    listed $315,000 Active 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    Light and bright, this refreshed extended Carmel model in the desirable 55+ Sunbird community offers comfort and low-maintenance living. Freshly painted throughout with updated bathroom fixtures, new microwave, newer white kitchen cabinets with updated hardware, and new light fixtures including a ceiling fan in the great room. Plantation shutters throughout enhance natural light and efficiency. This 2-bedroom, 1.75-bath home is move-in ready with room to personalize. Features a 2-car garage and sits on a cul-de-sac pie-shaped lot for added space and privacy. Enjoy guard-gated access, clubhouse dining, resort-style pool/spa, fitness center, pickleball, and championship golf. Close to shopping, dining, and freeway access.

16. 2018-07-27
    soldstatus $220,000 Closed 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    55+ Gated Golf Course Community. Beautiful Extended Carmel that's on a pie-shaped lot. Very light & Bright with Large Windows. Plantation Shutters on all the windows The Kitchen has Granite Counter Tops and recess lighting. Neutral Tile thru-out the home except carpet in the bedrooms. Good size Master Bedroom with Walk-In Closet. The community has lots of ammenities to offer to our residents. Beautiful swimming pool that was upgraded recently and lots more. Bring your golf clubs and enjoy the 18 hole course. The location of the community is such a plus, close to shopping, dining and has easy access to freeway. Thank you for showing.

17. 2018-07-27
    soldstatus $220,000

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    55+ Gated Golf Course Community. Beautiful Extended Carmel that's on a pie-shaped lot. Very light & Bright with Large Windows. Plantation Shutters on all the windows The Kitchen has Granite Counter Tops and recess lighting. Neutral Tile thru-out the home except carpet in the bedrooms. Good size Master Bedroom with Walk-In Closet. The community has lots of ammenities to offer to our residents. Beautiful swimming pool that was upgraded recently and lots more. Bring your golf clubs and enjoy the 18 hole course. The location of the community is such a plus, close to shopping, dining and has easy access to freeway. Thank you for showing.

18. 2018-06-26
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    55+ Gated Golf Course Community. Beautiful Extended Carmel that's on a pie-shaped lot. Very light & Bright with Large Windows. Plantation Shutters on all the windows The Kitchen has Granite Counter Tops and recess lighting. Neutral Tile thru-out the home except carpet in the bedrooms. Good size Master Bedroom with Walk-In Closet. The community has lots of ammenities to offer to our residents. Beautiful swimming pool that was upgraded recently and lots more. Bring your golf clubs and enjoy the 18 hole course. The location of the community is such a plus, close to shopping, dining and has easy access to freeway. Thank you for showing.

19. 2018-06-26
    listed $225,000 Active 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    55+ Gated Golf Course Community. Beautiful Extended Carmel that's on a pie-shaped lot. Very light & Bright with Large Windows. Plantation Shutters on all the windows The Kitchen has Granite Counter Tops and recess lighting. Neutral Tile thru-out the home except carpet in the bedrooms. Good size Master Bedroom with Walk-In Closet. The community has lots of ammenities to offer to our residents. Beautiful swimming pool that was upgraded recently and lots more. Bring your golf clubs and enjoy the 18 hole course. The location of the community is such a plus, close to shopping, dining and has easy access to freeway. Thank you for showing.

20. 2018-06-23
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    55+ Gated Golf Course Community. Beautiful Extended Carmel that's on a pie-shaped lot. Very light & Bright with Large Windows. Plantation Shutters on all the windows The Kitchen has Granite Counter Tops and recess lighting. Neutral Tile thru-out the home except carpet in the bedrooms. Good size Master Bedroom with Walk-In Closet. The community has lots of ammenities to offer to our residents. Beautiful swimming pool that was upgraded recently and lots more. Bring your golf clubs and enjoy the 18 hole course. The location of the community is such a plus, close to shopping, dining and has easy access to freeway. Thank you for showing.

21. 2018-06-23
    soldstatus $220,000 Closed 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    55+ Gated Golf Course Community. Beautiful Extended Carmel that's on a pie-shaped lot. Very light & Bright with Large Windows. Plantation Shutters on all the windows The Kitchen has Granite Counter Tops and recess lighting. Neutral Tile thru-out the home except carpet in the bedrooms. Good size Master Bedroom with Walk-In Closet. The community has lots of ammenities to offer to our residents. Beautiful swimming pool that was upgraded recently and lots more. Bring your golf clubs and enjoy the 18 hole course. The location of the community is such a plus, close to shopping, dining and has easy access to freeway. Thank you for showing.

22. 2018-05-19
    listed $225,000 Active 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    55+ Gated Golf Course Community. Beautiful Extended Carmel that's on a pie-shaped lot. Very light & Bright with Large Windows. Plantation Shutters on all the windows The Kitchen has Granite Counter Tops and recess lighting. Neutral Tile thru-out the home except carpet in the bedrooms. Good size Master Bedroom with Walk-In Closet. The community has lots of ammenities to offer to our residents. Beautiful swimming pool that was upgraded recently and lots more. Bring your golf clubs and enjoy the 18 hole course. The location of the community is such a plus, close to shopping, dining and has easy access to freeway. Thank you for showing.

23. 2014-09-03
    historical
24. 2014-08-29
    soldstatus $159,900 Closed
25. 2014-08-20
    status Pending
26. 2014-08-19
    soldstatus $159,900 Closed
27. 2014-07-01
    price $159,900
28. 2014-07-01
    status Pending
29. 2014-07-01
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
30. 2014-05-12
    listed $179,900 Active
31. 2012-04-23
    historical
32. 2011-10-25
    listed $159,000 Active
33. 2001-09-24
    soldstatus $96,000
34. 1999-04-30
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,121 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,079 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$958/yr (+$80/mo · 85.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,121
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,209
• − Management: −$2,209
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$7,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,873
• After-tax cash flow: $-327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2508

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute B Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chandler, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 299,016
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 48,746
• Household income: $153,633
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 304.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 12% Two or more races 11% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.22%
• Current HPI: 299.4196
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.05%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+270.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $315,000 ARMLS
• 2018-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-27 Sold (MLS) $220,000 ARMLS
• 2018-06-26 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-06-26 Listed $225,000 ARMLS
• 2018-06-23 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-06-23 Sold (MLS) $220,000 ARMLS
• 2018-05-19 Listed $225,000 ARMLS
• 2014-09-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-08-29 Sold (MLS) $159,900 ARMLS
• 2014-08-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2014-08-19 Sold (MLS) $159,900 ARMLS
• 2014-07-01 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2014-07-01 Pending — ARMLS
• 2014-07-01 Price Changed $159,900 ARMLS
• 2014-05-12 Listed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2012-04-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2011-10-25 Listed $159,000 ARMLS
• 2001-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 1999-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,121 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.