4805 Cushman Rd NE #56 · Olympia, WA 98506

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 189 Days on market

Built 1973 $192/sqft · 156% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy stunning views of the Puget Sound, Olympics, and Black Hills from this beautifully maintained 3-bed, 1.75-bath home in the desirable 55+ Seashore Villa community. A wraparound covered deck expands your living space and showcases year-round scenery. Inside, the home features a bright layout, a remodeled primary bath with walk-in shower, fresh interior paint, newer flooring, and thoughtful updates throughout. Seashore Villa offers private beach access, pool, clubhouse, RV parking, and more—an ideal low-maintenance lifestyle in a peaceful waterfront setting.

Key facts

• Private beach access
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Tags

• WRAPAROUND COVERED DECK
• REMODELED PRIMARY BATH
• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS
• PEACEFUL WATERFRONT SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $211,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.81%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,000
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: 142.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4806 Cushman Rd NE #120	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+2%)	8mo	$76,000	$60	81
4805 Cushman Rd NE #63	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-1%)	12mo	$350,000	$284	80
4805 Cushman Rd NE #21	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,254 (+0%)	16mo	$159,000	$127	79
4805 Cushman Rd NE #61	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (-12%)	0mo	$335,000	$303	74
4806 Cushman Rd NE #139	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-5%)	11mo	$70,000	$59	73
4806 Cushman Rd NE #125	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (0%)	18mo	$36,500	$29	70
4805 Cushman Rd NE #115	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+12%)	10mo	$220,000	$157	68
4805 Cushman Rd NE #19	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	14mo	$148,000	$137	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-20,303
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $10,339
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98506

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,587/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,887

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $240,000 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 170 DOM
16. 2025-12-11
    listed $250,000 Active
17. 2023-10-19
    soldstatus $235,000 Closed
18. 2023-08-04
    price $239,000
19. 2023-07-19
    listed $259,000 Active
20. 2019-06-03
    historical
21. 2019-06-03
    soldstatus $84,500 Sold
22. 2019-05-20
    status Pending
23. 2019-05-15
    listed $79,900 Active
24. 2017-07-21
    soldstatus $81,000 Sold
25. 2017-07-05
    status Pending
26. 2017-06-28
    status Active
27. 2017-06-26
    status Pending
28. 2017-06-12
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,587 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,352 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$765/yr (+$64/mo · 48.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,587
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,139
• − Management: −$2,139
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$751
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$180
• After-tax cash flow: $3,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olympia School District
• NCES district ID: 5306180
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,852
• Composite: 62.27/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #17 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,497
• Household income: $91,596
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Italian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -437.08%
• Current HPI: 363.2295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+257.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Listed $250,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-19 Sold (MLS) $235,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-04 Price Changed $239,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-19 Listed $259,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-03 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-03 Sold (MLS) $84,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-15 Listed $79,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-21 Sold (MLS) $81,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-05 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-28 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-26 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-12 Listed $69,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+19.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,587 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.