6017 Black Springs Ln · Burleson, TX 76058

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2005 2.00 ac lot Est $227k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller offering NEW 60in TV to buyer! Godley ISD! This house is a MUST see! Great split bedroom floor plan, has three bedrooms plus a study, master bedroom has a double vanity, separate shower, garden tub, and walk in closet! Room for deep freeze in laundry room, solar screens on windows, hardy board siding, hard board skirting, carport with workshop, and 10 fruit trees in front yard, all on two acres. 1.5 acres is fenced in back, great for horses!!

Key facts

• Attached garage
• 2 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED MOBILE HOME
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• FULLY EQUIPPED TINY HOME
• MULTIPLE LIVING OPTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($757/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rb Godley El (511 students, 46% FRL); Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $149k; list at $235k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,035 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.15%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,800
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6017 Black Springs Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	1mo	$235,000	$140	99
6112 Wild Berry Trl	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,756 (+4%)	6mo	$315,000	$179	74
5921 Black Springs Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+13%)	7mo	$260,000	$137	60
3504 Cobbler Ln	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,683 (+0%)	6mo	$225,000	$134	59
6500 Berry Grove Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-7%)	4mo	$210,000	$134	46
5824 Longhorn Trl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,794 (+7%)	14mo	$200,000	$111	46
6601 Vintner Trl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+10%)	14mo	$249,000	$135	38
2908 Berry Patch Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-13%)	15mo	$245,000	$168	36
3504 Wild Horse Ln	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,920 (+14%)	20mo	$260,000	$135	29
6320 County Road 912	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,920 (+14%)	17mo	$254,990	$133	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-34,056
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-24,462
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $3,001/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,000

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $196	-5% $130	+0% $63	+5% $-3	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-101	-5% $-19	+0% $63	+5% $145	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $123	base $63	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-04-06
   listed $235,000 Active
4. 2014-05-08
   soldstatus
5. 2014-05-07
   soldstatus Closed 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Seller offering NEW 60in TV to buyer! Godley ISD! This house is a MUST see! Great split bedroom floor plan, has three bedrooms plus a study, master bedroom has a double vanity, separate shower, garden tub, and walk in closet! Room for deep freeze in laundry room, solar screens on windows, hardy board siding, hard board skirting, carport with workshop, and 10 fruit trees in front yard, all on two acres. 1.5 acres is fenced in back, great for horses!!

6. 2014-04-17
   status Pending 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Seller offering NEW 60in TV to buyer! Godley ISD! This house is a MUST see! Great split bedroom floor plan, has three bedrooms plus a study, master bedroom has a double vanity, separate shower, garden tub, and walk in closet! Room for deep freeze in laundry room, solar screens on windows, hardy board siding, hard board skirting, carport with workshop, and 10 fruit trees in front yard, all on two acres. 1.5 acres is fenced in back, great for horses!!

7. 2014-04-09
   historical Active Option Contract 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Seller offering NEW 60in TV to buyer! Godley ISD! This house is a MUST see! Great split bedroom floor plan, has three bedrooms plus a study, master bedroom has a double vanity, separate shower, garden tub, and walk in closet! Room for deep freeze in laundry room, solar screens on windows, hardy board siding, hard board skirting, carport with workshop, and 10 fruit trees in front yard, all on two acres. 1.5 acres is fenced in back, great for horses!!

8. 2014-02-11
   price $69,900 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Seller offering NEW 60in TV to buyer! Godley ISD! This house is a MUST see! Great split bedroom floor plan, has three bedrooms plus a study, master bedroom has a double vanity, separate shower, garden tub, and walk in closet! Room for deep freeze in laundry room, solar screens on windows, hardy board siding, hard board skirting, carport with workshop, and 10 fruit trees in front yard, all on two acres. 1.5 acres is fenced in back, great for horses!!

9. 2014-02-11
   price $69,300 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   Seller offering NEW 60in TV to buyer! Godley ISD! This house is a MUST see! Great split bedroom floor plan, has three bedrooms plus a study, master bedroom has a double vanity, separate shower, garden tub, and walk in closet! Room for deep freeze in laundry room, solar screens on windows, hardy board siding, hard board skirting, carport with workshop, and 10 fruit trees in front yard, all on two acres. 1.5 acres is fenced in back, great for horses!!

10. 2013-11-16
    listed $72,300 Active 453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Seller offering NEW 60in TV to buyer! Godley ISD! This house is a MUST see! Great split bedroom floor plan, has three bedrooms plus a study, master bedroom has a double vanity, separate shower, garden tub, and walk in closet! Room for deep freeze in laundry room, solar screens on windows, hardy board siding, hard board skirting, carport with workshop, and 10 fruit trees in front yard, all on two acres. 1.5 acres is fenced in back, great for horses!!

11. 2011-07-05
    soldstatus
12. 2011-06-30
    soldstatus Closed 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    One story manufactured home on nice-sized lot. Fenced yard and siding exterior. Carpet and tile flooring. Open flow kitchen and TONS of build-it cabinet and storage space throughout. Dual sinks in bathroom with garden tub in master.

13. 2011-05-24
    status Pending 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    One story manufactured home on nice-sized lot. Fenced yard and siding exterior. Carpet and tile flooring. Open flow kitchen and TONS of build-it cabinet and storage space throughout. Dual sinks in bathroom with garden tub in master.

14. 2011-05-11
    listed $35,000 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    One story manufactured home on nice-sized lot. Fenced yard and siding exterior. Carpet and tile flooring. Open flow kitchen and TONS of build-it cabinet and storage space throughout. Dual sinks in bathroom with garden tub in master.

15. 2011-03-03
    historical
16. 2011-02-07
    listed $49,900 Active
17. 2008-06-05
    soldstatus
18. 2007-05-04
    soldstatus
19. 2007-04-16
    historical
20. 2007-04-06
    listed $58,000
21. 2006-12-15
    soldstatus $149,157
22. 2005-10-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,001 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,299/yr (+$108/mo · 43.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,001
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,997
• − Management: −$1,997
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$769
• After-tax cash flow: $1,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 81,549
• Population (ZIP): 21,531

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+57.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2014-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-07 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2014-04-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2014-04-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2014-02-11 Price Changed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2014-02-11 Price Changed $69,300 NTREIS
• 2013-11-16 Listed $72,300 NTREIS
• 2011-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-06-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2011-05-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2011-05-11 Listed $35,000 NTREIS
• 2011-03-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2011-02-07 Listed $49,900 NTREIS
• 2008-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-05-04 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2007-04-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2007-04-06 Listed $58,000 NTREIS
• 2006-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $149,157 Public Records
• 2005-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,001 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.