4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #123 · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$174,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 673 sqft · Condo public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2014 $260/sqft · at area comps Est $171k · at est. $135/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to your own coastal retreat in this light-filled, well-maintained home featuring vaulted ceilings and an inviting open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Stay cozy with the charming electric fireplace, creating the perfect ambiance on cooler coastal evenings. The main floor offers a comfortable bedroom, while upstairs includes a second bedroom plus a flexible den or sitting area that can easily serve as a third bedroom. Enjoy the ease of ample storage inside and out, including a convenient shed for all your beach essentials. Step onto the patio, breathe in the coastal air, and unwind after a day by the water. Located in the desirable

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit located in a community of 225 units; Building name: Latitude 49
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $135; HOA covers common area maintenance, road maintenance, security, snow removal and trash; Community amenities: athletic court, clubhouse, exercise room, game/rec room, hot tub, playground, outdoor pool, laundry room, gated entry, high-speed internet available, pool

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking (2 uncovered spaces)
• Security: Gated community; Security gate and security service
• Utilities: Electric and propane energy sources; Birch Bay Water & Sewer service; PSE power; Xfinity internet available
• Home design: Detached single-wide manufactured home; Two stories (one level listed as living levels); Main-level entry
• Construction: Metal/vinyl construction materials; Composition and torch-down roof
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl exterior; Corner lot; Cul-de-sac location; Paved access; Unit-level view

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (1 on main level, 1 on second level); Primary bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bath (main level) with shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Gas cooking; Fireplace (electric); Vaulted ceilings; Den/office; Entry hall; Living room; Kitchen with eating space; Balcony/Deck/Patio; Yard
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (community)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $175k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $169,653 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.81%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,540
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: 2.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $113,217
• Equity at exit: $157,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $319,989
• Equity at exit: $339,792

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,939 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,541/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,587

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $174,900 Active
17. 2020-11-13
    soldstatus $110,000 Sold
18. 2020-10-19
    status Pending
19. 2020-10-13
    status Active
20. 2020-10-02
    status Pending Inspection
21. 2020-09-28
    price $115,500
22. 2020-09-03
    price $119,500
23. 2020-07-08
    price $129,500
24. 2020-06-05
    listed $139,500 Active
25. 2014-09-03
    soldstatus $40,000 Sold
26. 2014-09-03
    soldstatus $40,000
27. 2014-08-20
    status Pending
28. 2014-07-02
    price $41,900
29. 2014-06-04
    listed $44,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,541 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,714 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$173/yr (+$14/mo · 11.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,541
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $621
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$149
• After-tax cash flow: $3,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+297.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $174,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-13 Sold (MLS) $110,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-13 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-02 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-28 Price Changed $115,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-03 Price Changed $119,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-08 Price Changed $129,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-05 Listed $139,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-03 Sold (MLS) $40,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-02 Price Changed $41,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-04 Listed $44,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,541 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.