11561 Buena Vis · Piñon Hills, CA 92372

$399,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,306 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2023 2.29 ac lot $306/sqft · 7% below area Est $430k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your slice of peaceful High Desert living in Pinon Hills! This beautifully built 2023 manufactured home offers the perfect blend of modern comfort and wide-open space. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms across 1,303 square feet, the home is thoughtfully designed with a functional layout ideal for families, remote work, or anyone looking to escape the city hustle. Set on an expansive 2.2-acre lot, this property gives you room to breathe, grow, and create—whether you envision animals, outdoor toys, a workshop, or simply enjoying the stunning desert sunsets and mountain views. Inside, you’ll find a bright, open living area, a well-appointed kitchen, and c

Key facts

• Newer construction
• Energy efficiency
• Mountain views

Tags

• EXPANSIVE 2.2-ACRE LOT
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• NEWER CONSTRUCTION
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• MOVE-IN READY CONDITION
• EASY ACCESS TO NEARBY HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mountainous community

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking; Has parking
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story; Entry on level 1; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Certified 433a foundation
• Exterior features: House structure; No pool; Lot over 40,000 sq ft; Unpaved road access; Has view

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry on main level; Mountainous view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in an individual room; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-629 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (37.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage (523 students, 53% FRL); Pinon Mesa Middle (788 students, 69% FRL); Serrano High (2,145 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $330k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 2→3/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000 (37.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.76%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $430,375
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -7.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11473 Desert View Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+8%)	5mo	$415,000	$296	70
1354 Madera Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-4%)	8mo	$320,000	$256	65
11354 Buena Vista Rd	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,493 (+14%)	8mo	$400,000	$268	56
11174 Wintergreen Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-4%)	12mo	$345,000	$276	51
11637 Oasis Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+3%)	11mo	$350,000	$260	50
1930 Calaveras Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,344 (+3%)	21mo	$367,000	$273	48
971 Goss Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-4%)	20mo	$348,000	$279	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $177,176
• Equity at exit: $359,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $553,156
• Equity at exit: $775,169

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92372

• Home prices YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$346 /mo · $4,146/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-629

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,296

Max offer price $287,851

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-403	-5% $-516	+0% $-629	+5% $-742	+10% $-855
Rent	-10% $-827	-5% $-728	+0% $-629	+5% $-530	+10% $-432
Rate	-1.0pp $-428	-0.5pp $-528	base $-629	+0.5pp $-733	+1.0pp $-838

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
381 Amador Rd Pinon Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,500	$1.74	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $399,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $410,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $410,000 Active 1155-char remark
16. 2024-03-28
    soldstatus $330,000
17. 2023-03-24
    soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,146 · $346/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,146 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 2 d/yr ≥96°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$4,146
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$14,899
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,576
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowline Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636970
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #9157
• State rank: #722 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Piñon Hills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Piñon Hills, CA
• City population: 4,854
• Population (ZIP): 4,854

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 14% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Korean 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.25%
• Current HPI: 383.0737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+714.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $399,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $410,000 CRMLS
• 2024-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,146 · +384.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.