4400 Gateway Rd #28 · Bethel Island, CA 94511

$76,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 570 sqft · Manufactured · 83 Days on market

Built 1961 Good condition Est $63k · 20% over ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the heart of the Delta! Located in a peaceful community at 4400 Gateway Rd in Bethel Island, this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home offers approximately 500 sq ft of comfortable living space with modern upgrades throughout. Step inside to find a refreshed interior featuring new appliances, updated finishes, and a functional layout that maximizes every square foot. The home offers a cozy yet open feel, perfect for everyday living or a weekend retreat. Enjoy the laid-back lifestyle Bethel Island is known forsurrounded by scenic waterways, marinas, and endless opportunities for boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation. Known as the heart of the California Delta, this unique waterfront community attracts those looking for a slower pace and connection to nature. Whether youre a first-time buyer, downsizing, or searching for an affordable getaway, this move-in-ready home is a great opportunity to own in one of Contra Costa Countys hidden gems.

Key facts

• Updated finishes
• Waterfront community
• New appliances

Tags

• UPDATED FINISHES
• NEW APPLIANCES
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• MOVE IN READY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Clubhouse and additional community amenities (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned space 28 (space rent $1,100)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Park home; Property ID 742153
• Exterior features: Other roof (see remarks); Leased land site

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen integrated with family room (open layout)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central forced air cooling; Gas heating
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Dining area within the family room; Family park with pets allowed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.2% vs local median 2.9% in Bethel Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,166 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oakley Union Elementary (suburban): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #837 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($525 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,440 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 110.43%
• DSCR: 5.91
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $63,270
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4400 Gateway Rd #39	0.12mi	2/1.0	600 (+5%)	12mo	$15,500	$26	76
4400 Gateway Rd Spc. 54 #54	0.12mi	1/1.0 (-1)	624 (+10%)	6mo	$69,000	$111	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 95.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.54×
• Total profit: $139,256
• Equity at exit: $68,467

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.0%
• Equity multiple: 16.69×
• Total profit: $333,986
• Equity at exit: $147,651

Cash invested: $21,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94511

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,144 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$95 /mo · $1,140/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $1,532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,205

Max offer price $76,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,000
• Closing costs: $2,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $76,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,500 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,500 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $76,500 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $76,500 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,500 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,500 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,500 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,500 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $78,000 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome to the heart of the Delta! Located in a peaceful community at 4400 Gateway Rd in Bethel Island, this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home offers approximately 500 sq ft of comfortable living space with modern upgrades throughout. Step inside to find a refreshed interior featuring new appliances, updated finishes, and a functional layout that maximizes every square foot. The home offers a cozy yet open feel, perfect for everyday living or a weekend retreat. Enjoy the laid-back lifestyle Bethel Island is known forsurrounded by scenic waterways, marinas, and endless opportunities for boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation. Known as the heart of the California Delta, this unique waterfront community attracts those looking for a slower pace and connection to nature. Whether youre a first-time buyer, downsizing, or searching for an affordable getaway, this move-in-ready home is a great opportunity to own in one of Contra Costa Countys hidden gems.

16. 2026-04-28
    price $78,000 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome to the heart of the Delta! Located in a peaceful community at 4400 Gateway Rd in Bethel Island, this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home offers approximately 500 sq ft of comfortable living space with modern upgrades throughout. Step inside to find a refreshed interior featuring new appliances, updated finishes, and a functional layout that maximizes every square foot. The home offers a cozy yet open feel, perfect for everyday living or a weekend retreat. Enjoy the laid-back lifestyle Bethel Island is known forsurrounded by scenic waterways, marinas, and endless opportunities for boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation. Known as the heart of the California Delta, this unique waterfront community attracts those looking for a slower pace and connection to nature. Whether youre a first-time buyer, downsizing, or searching for an affordable getaway, this move-in-ready home is a great opportunity to own in one of Contra Costa Countys hidden gems.

17. 2026-03-27
    listed $80,000 Active 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome to the heart of the Delta! Located in a peaceful community at 4400 Gateway Rd in Bethel Island, this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home offers approximately 500 sq ft of comfortable living space with modern upgrades throughout. Step inside to find a refreshed interior featuring new appliances, updated finishes, and a functional layout that maximizes every square foot. The home offers a cozy yet open feel, perfect for everyday living or a weekend retreat. Enjoy the laid-back lifestyle Bethel Island is known forsurrounded by scenic waterways, marinas, and endless opportunities for boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation. Known as the heart of the California Delta, this unique waterfront community attracts those looking for a slower pace and connection to nature. Whether youre a first-time buyer, downsizing, or searching for an affordable getaway, this move-in-ready home is a great opportunity to own in one of Contra Costa Countys hidden gems.

18. 2026-03-27
    listed $80,000 Active 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome to the heart of the Delta! Located in a peaceful community at 4400 Gateway Rd in Bethel Island, this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home offers approximately 500 sq ft of comfortable living space with modern upgrades throughout. Step inside to find a refreshed interior featuring new appliances, updated finishes, and a functional layout that maximizes every square foot. The home offers a cozy yet open feel, perfect for everyday living or a weekend retreat. Enjoy the laid-back lifestyle Bethel Island is known forsurrounded by scenic waterways, marinas, and endless opportunities for boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation. Known as the heart of the California Delta, this unique waterfront community attracts those looking for a slower pace and connection to nature. Whether youre a first-time buyer, downsizing, or searching for an affordable getaway, this move-in-ready home is a great opportunity to own in one of Contra Costa Countys hidden gems.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,257
• − Property taxes: −$1,140
• − Insurance: −$5,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,018
• − Management: −$3,018
• − Depreciation: −$2,211
• Taxable income: $18,581
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,459
• After-tax cash flow: $13,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully updated mobile home offers a good condition with fresh finishes and a functional layout, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New roof inspection — Ensures structural integrity and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New roof inspection — Ensures structural integrity and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628080
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,903
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10301
• State rank: #837 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bethel Island

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethel Island, CA
• City population: 2,144
• Population (ZIP): 2,144

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 6% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 312.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $78,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $78,000 MLSListings
• 2026-03-27 Listed $80,000 MLSListings
• 2026-03-27 Listed $80,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR