450 E Orleans St · Paxton, IL 60957

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Other public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1946 6,720 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set way back on the lot and off the street is this hidden gem. This darling cottage is ready for new owners. Recently updated with new flooring, roof, plumbing, windows,appliances, and redone bath and freshly painted makes it move-in ready. Nicely appointed eat-in kitchen with added bonus of washer and dryer. Separate dining room and large living allows room for entertaining. Recently added screen porch delightful for summer days. This is truly a home that will make your dreams come true.

Key facts

• Separate dining room
• Spacious living area
• Screened porch

Tags

• COZY EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• SCREENED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property not rebuilt or rehabbed; Living area listed as estimated
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Two owned parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story; Fee simple ownership; Built before 1978
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 42 x 160; Lot size less than 0.25 acre; Zoned single-family

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom; Master bedroom (main level) — 12 x 11; Additional bedroom listings include Bedroom 2, Bedroom 3, Bedroom 4 (levels not specified)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Baseboard heating; Wall-mounted cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Four total rooms; Living room (main level) — 18 x 11; Dining room (main level) — 11 x 10; Family room; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($997 rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 5.3% in Paxton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#316 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Paxton-Buckley-Loda CUD 10 (town): math 33% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #232 of 620 in IL (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clara Peterson Elem School (math 26% / reading 24%, grade F, #842 of 2,056 statewide, top 41%, 624 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 37% district-wide (37 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Ford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ford County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.09%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $4,957
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $27,334
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60957

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $997 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $650/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $641

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $79,900 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-05-22
   listed $79,900 Active
3. 2023-01-27
   soldstatus $55,000 Closed 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Set way back on the lot and off the street is this hidden gem. This darling cottage is ready for new owners. Recently updated with new flooring, roof, plumbing, windows,appliances, and redone bath and freshly painted makes it move-in ready. Nicely appointed eat-in kitchen with added bonus of washer and dryer. Separate dining room and large living allows room for entertaining. Recently added screen porch delightful for summer days. This is truly a home that will make your dreams come true.

4. 2023-01-27
   soldstatus $55,000

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Set way back on the lot and off the street is this hidden gem. This darling cottage is ready for new owners. Recently updated with new flooring, roof, plumbing, windows,appliances, and redone bath and freshly painted makes it move-in ready. Nicely appointed eat-in kitchen with added bonus of washer and dryer. Separate dining room and large living allows room for entertaining. Recently added screen porch delightful for summer days. This is truly a home that will make your dreams come true.

5. 2022-12-17
   status Pending 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Set way back on the lot and off the street is this hidden gem. This darling cottage is ready for new owners. Recently updated with new flooring, roof, plumbing, windows,appliances, and redone bath and freshly painted makes it move-in ready. Nicely appointed eat-in kitchen with added bonus of washer and dryer. Separate dining room and large living allows room for entertaining. Recently added screen porch delightful for summer days. This is truly a home that will make your dreams come true.

6. 2022-11-10
   price $59,000 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Set way back on the lot and off the street is this hidden gem. This darling cottage is ready for new owners. Recently updated with new flooring, roof, plumbing, windows,appliances, and redone bath and freshly painted makes it move-in ready. Nicely appointed eat-in kitchen with added bonus of washer and dryer. Separate dining room and large living allows room for entertaining. Recently added screen porch delightful for summer days. This is truly a home that will make your dreams come true.

7. 2022-10-07
   listed $65,000 Active 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Set way back on the lot and off the street is this hidden gem. This darling cottage is ready for new owners. Recently updated with new flooring, roof, plumbing, windows,appliances, and redone bath and freshly painted makes it move-in ready. Nicely appointed eat-in kitchen with added bonus of washer and dryer. Separate dining room and large living allows room for entertaining. Recently added screen porch delightful for summer days. This is truly a home that will make your dreams come true.

8. 2020-09-16
   soldstatus $48,000
9. 2020-09-15
   soldstatus $48,000 Closed Sale 221-char remark

   Show marketing remark (221 chars)

   Adorable starter home, or home to downsize in! This house is move-in ready, with every room recently redone! New flooring, water heater, roof, plumbing, windows, porch, paint, and appliances! Call to see this home today!

10. 2020-08-21
    status Pending 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Adorable starter home, or home to downsize in! This house is move-in ready, with every room recently redone! New flooring, water heater, roof, plumbing, windows, porch, paint, and appliances! Call to see this home today!

11. 2020-08-07
    listed $54,900 New 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Adorable starter home, or home to downsize in! This house is move-in ready, with every room recently redone! New flooring, water heater, roof, plumbing, windows, porch, paint, and appliances! Call to see this home today!

12. 2017-10-23
    soldstatus $27,900 Closed Sale
13. 2017-09-26
    status Pending
14. 2017-09-19
    listed $27,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $650 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,232 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$582/yr (+$49/mo · 89.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$650
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$957
• − Management: −$957
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,202
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$528
• After-tax cash flow: $2,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paxton-Buckley-Loda CUD 10
• NCES district ID: 1707650
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,233
• Composite: 27.27/100
• National rank: #7007
• State rank: #232 of 620 in IL

Livability — Paxton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #316
• US rank: #6283

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paxton, IL
• Population (ZIP): 5,620

Population outlook (Ford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,044 people
• By 2030: 12,607 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 11,716 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 10,836 · -16.9%
• By 2075: 9,328 · -28.5%
• By 2100: 7,803 · -40.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.9) · D 25.1% · R 73.0% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -29.0pp · 2024: -47.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.9 2020: R+47.3 2016: R+48.7 2012: R+42.9 2008: R+29.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.59%
• Current HPI: 153.0624
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+186.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $79,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-27 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-17 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-10 Price Changed $59,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-07 Listed $65,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-15 Sold (MLS) $48,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-21 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-07 Listed $54,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-23 Sold (MLS) $27,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-26 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-19 Listed $27,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $650 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.