6812 Aramon Ct · Wesley Chapel, FL 33545

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,396 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2004 4,888 sqft lot Est $315k · 11% under $116/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short sale. Pretty pond location on cul de sac street offering 3BDR/2BA, covered patio, cathedral ceilings, separate dining, oak cabinets in spacious kitchen, floor covering includes ceramic tile, laminate wood and carpet. Along with split bedroom plan, living room is open to the kitchen with a ceiling plan, entertainment niche, decorative plant shelves and double sliders to the covered patio. kitchen boasts oak cabinets, breakfast bar, plant shelves, recessed lighting, and separate breakfast area. Master suite features French door access to the patio, ceiling fan, large walk in closet, tub/shower combo, dual vanity, oak cabinets and ceramic tile.

Key facts

• Master suite
• Granite countertops
• Cozy patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• MASTER SUITE
• BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED YARD
• COZY PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-595/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wesley Chapel Elementary School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 828 students, 37% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 585 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $280k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,373 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $315,496
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6812 Aramon Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,396 (0%)	1mo	$265,000	$190	99
31052 Masena Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-3%)	2mo	$297,000	$220	82
31228 Masena Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-10%)	2mo	$299,000	$237	79
31216 Masena Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+7%)	16mo	$335,000	$224	71
31436 Triborough Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-10%)	7mo	$290,000	$230	70
31132 Masena Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-7%)	15mo	$334,000	$257	68
6418 Chapel Pines Blvd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	6mo	$310,000	$215	60
6332 Sushi Ct	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,434 (+3%)	10mo	$345,000	$241	54
30830 Birdhouse Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	12mo	$324,900	$226	50
6407 Sushi Ct	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+11%)	10mo	$340,000	$220	44
30929 Eloian Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+15%)	15mo	$375,000	$234	44
7326 Cutwater Ln	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,564 (+12%)	10mo	$255,000	$163	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-55,507
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-79,354
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33545

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,394 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,876/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$116
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,457

Max offer price $271,235

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7046 Penta Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1719	$3,000	$1.75	24d	1	0.53mi
31352 Golden Gate Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1640	$2,550	$1.55	11d	1	0.63mi
30853 Sade Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1792	$2,115	$1.18	24d	1	0.65mi
6419 Chapel Pines Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1434	$2,195	$1.53	24d	1	0.67mi
7507 Canal Point Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	1831	$2,400	$1.31	24d	1	0.71mi
6332 Open Pasture Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,165	$1.50	20d	1	0.73mi
30626 Birdhouse Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1158	$2,200	$1.90	12d	1	0.88mi
7632 Armonk Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1471	$2,400	$1.63	24d	1	1.03mi
5919 Lake Front Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1420	$2,055	$1.45	4d	1	1.16mi
30319 Birdhouse Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1158	$2,115	$1.83	20d	1	1.18mi
30633 Totteridge Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1805	$2,195	$1.22	24d	1	1.18mi
30406 Arrochar St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,099	$1.13	24d	1	1.20mi
32257 Snowberry Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$2,058	$2.00	1d	25	1.27mi
6535 Tabogi Trl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,995	$1.72	24d	1	1.30mi
31371 Amberview Bnd Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1762	$2,300	$1.31	4d	1	1.32mi
7724 Outerbridge St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,200	$1.18	2d	1	1.34mi
5483 Moonstone Way Unit 1 Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,010	$1.61	24d	1	1.36mi
7733 Outerbridge St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,200	$1.18	2d	1	1.37mi
7618 Momentum Pkwy Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,200	$1.40	17d	1	1.39mi
31641 Blue Passing Loop Unit Epperson Logoon Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,250	$1.28	4d	1	1.39mi
31155 Seaboard Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,409	$2.46	3d	29	1.40mi
30513 Randall Manor St Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,495	$1.50	24d	1	1.40mi
30441 Annadale Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,175	$1.17	20d	1	1.42mi
31632 Blue Passing Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,650	$1.66	17d	1	1.42mi
31700 Blue Passing Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,245	$1.24	4d	1	1.44mi
31535 Blue Passing Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,099	$1.31	24d	1	1.44mi
8069 Rolling Shell Trl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,200	$1.25	24d	1	1.46mi
7852 Tranquility Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$2,202	$2.06	1d	32	1.49mi
31993 Blue Passing Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,300	$1.27	17d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $116 · $1,392/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-04
   listed $280,000 Active
3. 2025-10-29
   historical
4. 2025-08-18
   price $300,000
5. 2025-06-17
   price $315,000
6. 2024-11-19
   price $335,000
7. 2024-11-19
   price $340,000
8. 2024-10-25
   listed $350,000 Active
9. 2012-12-11
   soldstatus $95,000
10. 2012-12-10
    soldstatus $95,000 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Short sale. Pretty pond location on cul de sac street offering 3BDR/2BA, covered patio, cathedral ceilings, separate dining, oak cabinets in spacious kitchen, floor covering includes ceramic tile, laminate wood and carpet. Along with split bedroom plan, living room is open to the kitchen with a ceiling plan, entertainment niche, decorative plant shelves and double sliders to the covered patio. kitchen boasts oak cabinets, breakfast bar, plant shelves, recessed lighting, and separate breakfast area. Master suite features French door access to the patio, ceiling fan, large walk in closet, tub/shower combo, dual vanity, oak cabinets and ceramic tile.

11. 2012-05-15
    listed $99,999 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Short sale. Pretty pond location on cul de sac street offering 3BDR/2BA, covered patio, cathedral ceilings, separate dining, oak cabinets in spacious kitchen, floor covering includes ceramic tile, laminate wood and carpet. Along with split bedroom plan, living room is open to the kitchen with a ceiling plan, entertainment niche, decorative plant shelves and double sliders to the covered patio. kitchen boasts oak cabinets, breakfast bar, plant shelves, recessed lighting, and separate breakfast area. Master suite features French door access to the patio, ceiling fan, large walk in closet, tub/shower combo, dual vanity, oak cabinets and ceramic tile.

12. 2005-12-27
    soldstatus $222,000
13. 2005-12-21
    soldstatus $222,000
14. 2005-11-11
    listed $224,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,876 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,876 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$2,876
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,298
• − Management: −$2,298
• − HOA: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$5,369
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,288
• After-tax cash flow: $693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,222
• Household income: $118,889
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 287.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 20% Black 14% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.59%
• Current HPI: 273.0769
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.68%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+24.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Listed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-19 Price Changed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-19 Price Changed $340,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-25 Listed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2012-12-10 Sold (MLS) $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-15 Listed $99,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $222,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-21 Sold (MLS) $222,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-11 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,876 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.