Avery Plan · Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

$390,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,147 sqft · SingleFamily · 358 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Avery home plan offers a thoughtfully designed one-story layout. The open-concept kitchen flows into the spacious great room, creating an ideal setting for family time and entertaining. A semi-enclosed dining area adds a touch of formality, while the airy covered patio extends the living space outdoors, perfect for relaxing or dining al fresco. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with the option to upgrade to a deluxe bath for added luxury. With four bedrooms and three baths, this home provides ample space for family members or guests. Personalize the Avery with options like a 3-car garage, custom flooring or cabinetry, making it a home uniquely yours.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• One story layout
• Spacious great room

Tags

• ONE STORY LAYOUT
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• SEMI ENCLOSED DINING AREA
• AIRY COVERED PATIO
• PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $390,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $436,700.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.0% in Mont Belvieu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#438 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 921 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $318,321 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.94%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $436,700
• List price: $390,500
• Delta: -10.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14811 Mission Ave	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,147 (0%)	4mo	$349,990	$163	91
9918 Red Knot St	0.00mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,182 (+2%)	3mo	$434,400	$199	90
14823 Mission Ave	0.12mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,182 (+2%)	3mo	$441,061	$202	84
15027 Mission Ave	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,052 (-4%)	2mo	$463,000	$226	83
9910 Red Knot	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,079 (-3%)	3mo	$432,430	$208	82
14810 Buffalo Head St	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,052 (-4%)	5mo	$429,990	$210	82
14807 Mission Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (-3%)	4mo	$349,990	$168	78
14827 Mission Ave	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,316 (+8%)	3mo	$444,424	$192	77
14806 Buffalo Head St	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,399 (+12%)	3mo	$454,990	$190	72
15023 Gulfstream Park Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,047 (-5%)	2mo	$400,000	$195	68
7111 Hillside Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,216 (+3%)	2mo	$389,000	$176	65
9919 Goliad Dr	0.13mi	4/3.5	2,448 (+14%)	5mo	$389,990	$159	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-101,414
• Equity at exit: $65,113

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-123,793
• Equity at exit: $37,758

Cash invested: $122,276 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 41 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.2 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $439,990 ($197/sqft)
• Median days on market: 78 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 921
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,183 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,290
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$546 /mo · $6,550/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $-503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,820

Max offer price $363,886

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-201	-5% $-352	+0% $-503	+5% $-654	+10% $-805
Rent	-10% $-755	-5% $-629	+0% $-503	+5% $-377	+10% $-252
Rate	-1.0pp $-283	-0.5pp $-392	base $-503	+0.5pp $-616	+1.0pp $-731

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,175
• Closing costs: $13,101
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9922 Red Knot ST Mont Belvieu, TX	5.0	3.0	2563	$3,399	$1.33	73d	1	0.09mi
7307 Hillside Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$2,756	$1.20	20d	1	0.52mi
15122 Arlington Park Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	3.5	2841	$2,966	$1.04	0d	1	0.55mi
7514 Oakmont Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,611	$1.35	23d	1	0.66mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	7d	1	1.46mi
15218 Arnold Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	0d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $390,500 Active 358 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $390,500 Active 356 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $390,500 Active 355 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $390,500 Active 354 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $390,500 Active 353 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $390,500 Active 350 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $390,500 Active 348 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $390,500 Active 347 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $390,500 Active 345 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $390,500 Active 343 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $390,500 Active 342 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $390,500 Active 341 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $390,500 Active 340 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $390,500 Active 339 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $390,500 Active 337 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $390,500 Active 336 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $390,500 Active 335 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $390,500 Active 334 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $390,500 Active 333 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $390,500 Active 332 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $390,500 Active 331 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $390,500 Active 330 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $390,500 Active 329 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $390,500 Active 328 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $390,500 Active 326 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $390,500 Active 325 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $390,500 Active 324 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $390,500 Active 323 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $390,500 Active 322 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $390,500 Active 321 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    price $390,500 Active 320 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $389,250 Active 320 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $389,250 Active 319 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $389,250 Active 318 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $389,250 Active 317 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $389,250 Active 316 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $389,250 Active 315 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $389,250 Active 313 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $389,250 Active 311 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $389,250 Active 310 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $389,250 Active 307 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $389,250 Active 306 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $389,250 Active 305 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $389,250 Active 304 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $389,250 Active 302 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $389,250 Active 298 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,250 Active 297 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,250 Active 296 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $389,250 Active 293 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,250 Active 292 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,462
• − Property taxes: −$6,550
• − Insurance: −$2,184
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,056
• − Management: −$3,056
• − Depreciation: −$12,704
• Taxable loss: −$13,813
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,315
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,735–$32,205 screening

The Avery home plan is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for a fresh coat of paint on the exterior siding to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace the carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Mont Belvieu

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mont Belvieu, TX
• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

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Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-15 Listed $389,250 Zillow